Opium wins.

"In an unprecedented move, the Union government has suspended the director of the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), KS James, citing an irregularity in recruitment, sources have told The Wire." The IIPS prepares the National Family Health Survey report and "Sources told The Wire that James had been asked by the government to resign earlier as the government was not happy with certain data sets that came up in the surveys conducted by the IIPS. However, he was reluctant to step down for the reasons being given." According to a note, James is under investigation. "Titled, 'Brief Note on Suspension of Prof James, Director and Senior Professor, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)', the statement was put out ostensibly by the Union health ministry on July 29. The note is undated, unsigned and on paper which does not carry an official letterhead." The Wire. Cowards and criminals prefer anonymity. It is very brave of The Wire to publish such underhand activity because a survey of the Indian media by Lokniti and Centre for the Study of Developing Societies found that "82% of those surveyed responded that their media organisation supported the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)." The Wire. "Over half of English language journalists reported a higher prevalence of experience of workplace discrimination based on their political opinions." Just as journalists support the BJP to protect their jobs, so do economists. "Policy positions no longer seem based on economics. Instead, economists' public utterances tend to signal a leaning towards personalities or politics, perhaps to get picked for policymaking positions, or seem to vent frustration at getting fired from their jobs," wrote Puja Mehra. Our gross domestic product (GDP) figures are suspect wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. "Given the data in India's statistical system, annual data on many sectors is unavailable. India's national accountants use outdated data, heroic assumptions and rough proxies to fill these gaps in the national accounting database. Hence, the first step to make sense of our growth rates is to put an error band around GDP figures and GDP growth rates." If the data are adverse the government simply suppresses them. "On January 28, 2019, PC Mohanan resigned as the acting chairman of the National Statistical Commission (NSC)...in protest at a delay in releasing a new set of jobs statistics. Another member of NSC J Meenakshi, quit with him." NDTV. Even after 4 years, the government has not provided information about discrepancies between Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) and Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) for the general election in 2019. The Wire. It cannot. Prof Sabyasachi Das of Ashoka University wrote a paper 'Democratic Backsliding in the World's Largest Democracy', in which he examined all the data of the 2019 election and found "significant irregularities" and "in constituencies that were closely contested between a candidate from the incumbent party and a rival, the incumbent party (BJP) won disproportionately more of them than lost. This is known as the McCrary test." Facts are inconvenient. "Religion is the opium of the people," said Karl Marx. wikipedia. Dish out the opium of Hindutva and win. Suppress facts.

It'll be easy.

"The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook database shows that India will overtake both Japan and Germany, currently the third and fourth largest economies respectively, in 2026-27 to become the third largest economy." HT. The economic reforms following the balance of payments crisis in 1991, when India had to pledge 67 tons of gold as security to borrow from the IMF (wikipedia), unleashed animal spirits and a surge in growth. According to the Provisional Estimates of National Income, "The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.2 percent as compared to 9.1 percent in 2021-22." pib,gov.in. The Gross National Income (GNI) per capita is estimated to be Rs 1,06,822 ($1302) in 2021-22 and Rs 1,13,395 ($1382) in 2022-23. According to the World Bank, lower middle income countries are those with GNI per capita of $1036-$4045 and upper middle income countries have GNI per capita of $4046-$12,535. What will it take to get from a lower middle income nation with GNI per capita of $1302 to a developed nation with a GNI per capita income of $13,000? Our GDP has to grow much faster than projected. GDP will grow at over 7% in 2023-24, predicted our Chief Economic Advisor Anantha Nageswaran. ET. The IMF predicted that "India's GDP growth would fall from 7.2% in FY23 to 6.1% in the current financial year, and then rise slightly to 6.3% in FY25." Mint. The Reserve Bank of India expects our growth rate at 6.5% in 2023-24. NDTV. India needs to "generate mass employment that guarantees a base minimum income. There is more than enough data to show that income levels for most Indians are far from adequate to guarantee a decent living." "India's young and expanding population, with more students leaving school every year to start careers," is seen as a demographic dividend, but "At the same time, managers struggle with enormous personnel problems. Finding people willing to uproot themselves for the factory jobs most crucial to long-term economic growth can be difficult. Training can be expensive, and keeping them can be nearly impossible." DH. Government jobs are the most coveted. "According to a report by the Department of Personnel and Training, over 220 million applicants have applied for government jobs since 2014, and over 722,000 have received permanent positions in the central government." ET. Young people keep appearing for tests to secure these coveted jobs. As a result the Centre of Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) estimates the rate of unemployment for those 20-24 years in age was at 41.9% in September 2022; it was 9.8% for those in the 25-29 years category. The State of Science Index-2023 survey by 3M found that "85 percent respondents said shortage of skilled trade workers was on account of parents discouraging children from pursuing opportunities in the sector." ET. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the focus of the government is on "infrastructure, investment, innovation and inclusiveness - to make India a developed nation by 2047." DNA. Chhoomantar. Easy.  

Settle it quickly.

"A cold medication made in India and sold in Iraq is tainted with toxic chemicals, a test commissioned by Bloomberg News shows." ET. "A bottle of Cold Out purchased at a pharmacy in Baghdad in March contains 2.1% ethylene glycol, according to Valisure LLC, an independent US laboratory. That's about 21 times the widely accepted limit." "The relatives of 20 Gambian children whose deaths were linked to toxic cough syrups made in India have sued Indian drugmaker Maiden Pharmaceuticals as well as local authorities in the West African country." Reuters. "The filing which has not yet been made public, opens a new front in the fight for compensation and justice after at least 70 children, mostly babies and toddlers, died from kidney injury last year." "A presidential task force has recommended the Gambian government to explore legal action against the Indian government, Maiden pharmaceuticals and a local drug importer for the deaths of 70 children last year due to kidney injury allegedly caused by India made cough syrup." ET. The Gambia is a small country in West Africa with an area of just 11,300 sq km and a population of about 2.5 million. wikipedia. The Indian state of Manipur has an estimated population of around 3.5 million in 2023 because there has been no national census since 2011, when the population was around 2.9 million. indiacensus.net. But, whereas the central government has been avoiding any discussion of the civil war in Manipur (NDTV), forcing the opposition to introduce a no-confidence motion (BBC), it had better take The Gambia seriously. Even if, "India's pharmaceutical exports this fiscal year are set to grow nearly twice as fast as last year to hit sales of $27 billion, driven by strong US buying, a government-backed trade body told Reuters, despite deaths linked to Indian-made cough syrups." It is not just in tiny The Gambia but, "The Indian manufacturer of eye drops linked to three deaths and serious infections in the US violated several safety norms, the country's top regulator has said." BBC. The drops were found to contain a rare strain of drug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa never before found in the US. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has been "increasing visits to Indian factories after the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions last year. Inspectors detailed unsanitory conditions in manufacturing plants and poorly trained staff; shreded paperwork and under-investigated customer complaints; and evidence of exporting contaminated drugs to the US." DH. As is usual, the Indian government has not found any contamination in cough syrups sent to The Gambia but the WHO insists that 4 out of 23 samples tested were contaminated. The Wire. According to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, "bilateral trade between India and Africa stood at approximately $98 billion in 2022-23." CII. That is a great reason to quickly settle with the grieving parents of the dead children. Already, "On average, 63 percent of Africans view China's economic and political influence as somewhat or very positive." cfr.org. Can we afford to lose out?

Ghazwa, but not in India.

"The forceful message conveyed to Kabul by the Corps Commanders Conference...captures the disappointment within the top brass over Afghanistan's unwillingness to stop the flow of militants across Pakistan's western border." Dawn. This followed an attack on a Pakistani army base by the Taliban on 12 July. "Pakistan's army said...it lost 12 soldiers in suspected militant attacks, including an assault on one of its bases. Nine soldiers were killed at the base which the Islamist militants stormed into armed with guns, hand grenades and rockets, the army and security officials said." Reuters. "A newly founded jihadist group called Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP) claimed responsibility for the assault." A Jihad against the Islamic Republic of Pakistan (encyclopedia) is deliciously ironic indeed. Pakistan has been using the bloodthirsty notion of Ghazwa-e-Hind, which means conquering and converting the whole of India to an Islamic nation by force. wiktionary. "Ghazwa in Arabic implies a war that is guided by faith rather than materialistic or territorial gains and is widely attributed to an Islamic concept derived from the Hadiths - a set of sayings by Prophet Mohammad. The phrase is used to refer to Muslim warriors conquering the Indian subcontinent." ORF. Killing of 12 Pakistani soldiers is still less than the 17 Indian soldiers killed at Uri on 18 September 2016. "Militants have attacked an army base in Indian administered Kashmir, killing at least 17 soldiers, the army says. All four of the attackers were killed. Carrying guns and grenades they stormed a base in Uri, close to the Line of Control with Pakistan in a pre-dawn ambush." BBC. "Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan is an alliance of militant networks formed in 2007 to unify opposition against the Pakistani military." dni.gov. "TTP leaders also publicly say that the group seeks to establish an Islamic caliphate in Pakistan that would require the overthrow of the Pakistani government." That would mean the Taliban in control of nuclear weapons. "The Taliban were largely founded by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) beginning in 1994; the ISI used the Taliban to establish a regime in Afghanistan which would be favorable to Pakistan, as they were trying to gain strategic depth." wikipedia. The depth of stupidity is infinite. The other stupid country is Pakistan's old friend the United States, which, in its panicked flight from Afghanistan in August 2021, CNN, left behind $7 billion worth of advanced weapons including aircraft, air-to-ground munitions, military vehicles, weapons, communication equipment and other materials. CNN. "Terrorists operating in the Kashmir valley have started using steel core bullets and Canadian night sights that were left behind by the American-led NATO alliance." India Today. "It is no secret that following the hurried withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban scavenged all the hardware left behind by their erstwhile foes and put it to use." Dawn. "They sow the wind, and reap the whirlwind". This was written before Ghazwa. 

Not just tomatoes.

"The world's most populous nation is more poorly endowed with farmland per capita than Greece or Algeria," wrote David Fickling. "India recently suspended exports of non-Basmati varieties of rice after heavy monsoon damaged crops that were due to be harvested in winter." Tomatoes were selling at Rs 200 per kg in Mumbai last weekend, prompting some stalls to close as there were no buyers. ET. Some farmers have sold their crops for over Rs 10 million as crops have been destroyed by excessive rains in other regions creating a shortage. ET. It is only just that profits should go to farmers. India is behind on transition to electric vehicles, because of shortage of charging facilities, and on renewable energy. "The government is running ahead of its 10% ethanol blending mandate and looks on track to hit 20% rate by 2025 as it seeks to trim its oil transport bill." But, "Sugarcane is a thirsty crop which needs a whole year or more to grow to maturity." Pulse cultivation has fallen by 0.8%. "According to HSBC Holdings Plc, the widespread cereal shortages in India could drive inflation higher in the country, even though the shock from vegetable prices is expected to ease." ET. "Costs of food items ranging from chilly to staples including pulses and rice, consumed by crores of people, are singeing Indians, who in any case have been shelling out more than Rs 100 per liter of petrol in many parts of the country." "It is clear that no country will suffer more from climate change this century than India, but no country is going to see its emissions grow faster over the coming decade," wrote Fickling. But how to reduce our emissions. "Electric vehicles (EV) don't run on fossil fuels," but the electricity required to charge these vehicles is largely produced from fossil fuels. "Further, in 2010-11, the country's generation capacity that depended on coal stood at 54%. It was down to 53% in 2020-21. In absolute terms, coal-based power capacity jumped from 93,918 megawatts to 202,675 megawatts," wrote Vivek Kaul. Electric cars and their batteries need a large number of minerals whose extraction and refining produce a lot of greenhouse gases. "The metals used both for ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles and battery-electric ones make up 53% and 47% of the manufacturing carbon footprint according to the Greenpeace report," wrote Anjani Trivedi. China controls most of the essential minerals for manufacturing EVs. "China's Vital Material Co bought up a $600 million stockpile of obscure critical materials in early 2020," and now "holds the biggest share of the markets for selenium, tellurium, indium and bismuth" and is "in the top three for gallium and germanium." ET. Meanwhile, "Tata Sons plans to build a four-billion-pound ( about Rs 423 billion) electric vehicle factory in the UK." TOI. The British government has offered 500 million pounds worth of incentives "a figure that may turn out to be conservative once the full extent of support is known," wrote Matthew Brooker. We need renewable energy and EVs to reduce emissions, but the manufacture of these need fossil fuels. Looks difficult, like squaring the circle.

India is not a dirty word, sir.

"More than two dozen Indian opposition parties said...that they had formed an alliance called 'INDIA' to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in parliamentary elections next year." Reuters. 'INDIA' stands for 'Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance'. "The key objectives of INDIA are: Defeat the BJP in the 2024 general elections. Protect the Constitution of India. Promote inclusive development. Uphold secular values of India." TOI. "East India Company, Indian Mujahideen, Popular Front of India too have 'India' in name: PM launches attack on opposition." TOI. Just because some disreputable organisations have disguised themselves by using India in their names, it does not make 'India' a dirty word, Mr Modi. Perhaps you should read the words of the song 'Jis Desh Mein Ganga Behti Hai', and since the River Ganga is forever pure, so is India. The word 'India' is derived from the River Indus which was known as the Sindhu River in the Rig-Veda. World History Encyclopedia. "Neighboring Arabs, Iranians uttered 's' as 'h' and called this land 'Hindu'." The name ' Bharat' came either from an ancient tribe of Bharatas or from various kings called Bharat in the Mahabharata. wikipedia. The BJP is also part of an alliance known as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which is supposed to consist of 38 parties. "Out of the alliance's current tally of 329 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP alone accounts for 301 seats. That means the remaining 37 parties have added only 28 seats to that aggregate." The word 'Democratic' is used mostly by dictatorships. There was the German Democratic Republic which was the communist East Germany. Now we have the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Algeria and North Korea. wikipedia. Just a couple of days back, "The Supreme Court today pulled up the Central government for failing to act against states ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party." "The SC said that while the Central government takes 'extreme stands' against other state governments, it does nothing against its own state governments which violate the Constitution." TN. Democratic indeed! "Humility does not come naturally to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi," wrote Nilanjan Mukherjee. "Electoral alliances are transactional for Modi, and seldom are there any great ideological bindings." "Pragmatism bordering on unprincipled pursuit of power is clearly the party's mantra now." "Wherever you go, India remains, for the most part, the same. Immorality is in the air. Politics sans morals." The Wire. "A rose by any other name would smell as sweet," wrote Shakespeare. So would excreta. India is forever fragrant. 'Democratic' is dubious.

Who is right?

"Number of entities, including individuals, who filed income tax returns increased by 6.18 percent in 2022-23 to over 7.40 crore (74 million), of which 5.16 crore (51.6 million) declared zero tax liability, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said." TOI. Which means that only 22.4 million entities, which probably means companies and individuals, paid income tax. "The government has taken several steps, like expansion of the scope of TDS/TCS (tax deduction at source/tax collection at source), simplification of personal I-T, prefiling of ITRs (income tax returns), updated returns, new form 26AS, and non-filers monitoring system, which has helped in adding taxpayers." India's population is about 1,430 million. worldometer. Which means the total number of non-filers would be 1,356 million. How much would it cost to monitor all of them? Politicians and bureaucrats in India unequivocally believe that millions of Indians are cheating on their taxes because they have convinced themselves that the Indian economy is booming and all the people are getting rich. "India has overtaken China as the most attractive emerging market (EM) for investing in EM debt, as per 85 sovereign wealth funds and 57 central banks." Mint. if that is the case, why is the yield on the benchmark 10 -year bond in India at 7.095%, while the yield of 10-year Indonesian bonds is over 70 basis points lower at 6.316%. investing.com. This, despite "Investments by Russian banks and companies in Indian government bonds underline challenges in converting rupees into roubles, which has hampered attempts to widen non-dollar denominated trade between the two nations." ET. "The size of the Indian economy will cross $4 trillion in 2024-25 and the per capita nominal GDP will also cross $2800, said an analysis conducted by industry body PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry." ET. "Amidst heightened global uncertainty the Indian economy has proved to be more resilient" because of "A conducive domestic policy environment, along with healthy performance of its key macroeconomic indicators have sustained the growth momentum of the Indian economy." said the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). However, "The latest Reuters poll of 53 economists taken between July 13 and 21 showed the Indian economy would grow 6.1% this fiscal year," but "Asked how the employment situation will change over the coming year, 17 of 25 economists said it will improve slightly." Reuters. "It was claimed that there was a 58 million increase in jobs between calendar years 2019 and 2022, the highest in Indian history over three years," wrote Prof Santosh Mehrotra. But almost all the increase in jobs has been in agriculture which are poorly paying or non-paying. Mehrotra calculates, "The current government inherited about 10 mn unemployed; that number grew to 30 mn, we estimate, by 2019. Thanks to poor economic management during COVID-19, and a K-shaped recovery, open unemployment grew to 38 million by 2022 (PLFS)." If people are not working they are not earning. And if they have no income they cannot pay income tax. Whatever the chamchas say. 

Birth at baat.

"Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Monday (yesterday) said the government is willing to hold a discussion in Lok Sabha on the situation in Manipur." TOI. "At least 30 people have been killed in ethnic clashes in the north-eastern Indian state of Manipur, officials say." BBC on 6 May. "The violence began earlier this week after a rally by indigenous communities against moves to grant tribal status to the main ethnic group in the state. Mobs attacked homes, vehicles, churches and temples." "Around 10,000 people have reportedly been displaced." Instead of addressing the problem the government tried to suppress all information by banning internet in the state. On 8 July, more than two months after civil strife broke out, "Manipur High Court after an in-chamber hearing...ordered partial lifting of ban on internet services in the state." TOI. "Internet services across all platforms have been banned in the state since May 3." Last week, a video surfaced showing "two women being paraded naked by a mob" in Manipur on 4 May. BBC. On the same day two other women were gang-raped and murdered in the same state. Mint. "There are actually no studies or empirical evidence to suggest that internet shutdowns are effective against the spread of misinformation," wrote Tanmay Singh. "Manipur's chief minister, in a rare moment of honesty, stated in a TV interview that there are hundreds of similar incidents that have happened in the last 70 days, and that is the reason why the internet is banned." So, the ban has not stopped the atrocities from happening. Instead, "It is clear that the inability to effectively share and receive information from behind the iron curtain of Manipur is what allows the Manipur state authorities to evade accountability." Clearly, the internet shutdown was not for the security of citizens, but "The internet has been cut off in Manipur for more than two months for the security of the government." The offer of discussion by Mr Shah is a facetious evasion of responsibility. Prime Minister Modi's party, the BJP is in power in Manipur. wikipedia. Therefore, as prime minister and head of the BJP, Mr Modi should explain to the people of India, through the parliament, as to why nothing was done about the rapes and murders and who is responsible for the uncontrolled carnage. After all Mr Modi is an expert on making speeches. From May 2014 till October 2017, Mr Modi had delivered a staggering 775 speeches. ET. "Modi has made nearly 19 speeches every month since he became PM on May 26, 2014. This translates to two public speeches every three days." Most speeches were over 30 minutes. Mr Modi has delivered over 100 Mann Ki Baat (wisdom of the mind) speeches over the radio. PIB. At the 100th Mann Ki Baat event in Delhi, a woman went into labor and delivered a healthy baby boy. HT. Messianic stuff. Once there was the star of Bethlehem. wikipedia. Now the Magi was already there.  

Per capita depends on the deflator.

According to the World Bank, "To be a high-income country, Indian citizens must have a per capita income of $13,205 (as per standard set for 2022-23)." TN. To reach this milestone by 100 years of Independence in 2047, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) calculated that, "India's real GDP to grow at 7.6 percent per annum over the next 25 years, raising its per capita GDP of US$2,500 to US$22,000." However, "the best that India has achieved, in terms of compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for nominal per capita GDP, over a period of 25 years in the past is 8.1 percent during 1993-94 to 2017-18." Nominal GDP is the "total value of all its consumer and government spending, investments, and exports, minus the value of its exports." Real GDP is derived by adjusting for currency value by eliminating the effect of inflation. Investopedia. So, if the real GDP has to grow at 7.6% then, adding the GDP deflator at 8.3% in 2022 (World Bank), growth of the nominal GDP has to reach 15.9%. However, the best that India has managed consistently over a 25-year period is just 8.1%. To achieve a high growth, the industrial sector has to grow at a CAGR of 13.4%, agriculture at 4.9%, services at 13%, and the nation must "follow a multi-pronged approach to absorb the large pool of labor force productively". Unfortunately, "Taiwan's Foxconn has withdrawn from a $19.5 billion semiconductor joint venture with Indian metal-to-oil conglomerate Vedanta,...in a setback to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's chipmaking plans for India." Reuters. A few days back, Tata announced, "Tata Sons will build a 40GW battery cell gigafactory in the United Kingdom (UK). The investment, of over 4 billion pounds, will deliver electric mobility and renewable energy storage solutions for customers in UK and Europe. JLR and Tata Motors will be anchor customers, with supplies commencing from 2026." The UK has raised its rate of corporation tax. "The main rate of corporation tax is 25% for the financial year beginning 1 April 2023 (previously 19% in the financial year beginning 1 April 2022)." PwC. "Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, who has said that Britain will not go toe-to-toe on subsidies, declined to give details on any UK financial support for Tata, but acknowledged Britain's need to attract big projects." Reuters. "Britain has previously expressed concerns over the United States' promise of hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for green industries." India has its own Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for 13 sectors worth $28 billion. wikipedia. Clearly not attractive enough. Meanwhile, "Families view civil services as a pathway out of poverty and towards prestige." The Print. "And so loans are taken and money is squirreled away to feed the great Indian coaching factories, which grind parallel to the country's steel frame that is its bureaucracy." Last year, only 933 made it out of 1.135 million candidates. Per capita means 'the amount for each person'. dictionary. In India, per capita is for very few people. That is a big deflator.

Rupee for dollar.

"India will use the G20 platform to push international settlement in rupees, especially with countries that are facing currency issues, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said." Mint. "India is taking steps to promote the use of its currency for international trade as part of a push to boost its exports in countries that are grappling with a shortage of dollars or hit with Western sanctions." VOA. "India has signed an agreement with the United Arab Emirates that will allow it to settle trade in rupees instead of dollars, boosting India's efforts to cut transaction costs by eliminating dollar conversions." Reuters. "India and Malaysia can now use the Indian rupee to settle trade in addition to other currencies, the Ministry of External Affairs said." BT. "Several banks including HDFC Bank and UCO Bank, have opened as many as 30 special vostro accounts ...to facilitate overseas trade in the rupee, a top government official said." ET. So, is it bye-bye US dollar? Not quite. "Russia has accumulated billions of rupees in Indian banks which it can't use, foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said...pointing to a ballooning surplus with the South Asian nation." ET. Now, "Indian refiners have settled some payments for Russian oil imports in Chinese yuan, but the US dollar remains the dominant currency for such payments, a senior government official said." Reuters. Russia prefers the Chinese yuan to the Indian rupee because it imported $67.7 billion worth of goods from China in 2021, oec.world, even though the yuan has fallen more than 4% against the dollar this year. Reuters. "Given frosty ties between Beijing and New Delhi, it's a national embarrassment of sorts," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Close to home, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka should be relatively easy to persuade. Since they run a combined $15 billion annual trade deficit with India, their banks will face the opposite of the problem the Russian institutions encountered." "The basic problem is that India had a surplus with only two of its top 15 trading partners last year: the US and the UK. They will be the last to accept rupee payments." ET. "The country's merchandise exports fell 22 percent to $32.97 billion in June from $42.28 billion a year earlier." ET. And, "India's foreign exchange reserves rose for a third straight week to total $609.02 billion as of July 14," as "They rose by $ 12.74 billion from the week earlier - the biggest gain in four months - having risen by a total of $3.08 billion in the prior two weeks." Reuters. So, why doesn't the government allow free flow of the rupee? "While the 'internationalisation' of the rupee may lower transaction costs of cross-border trade and investment operations by mitigating exchange rate risk, it will lead to complications in terms of formulating of monetary policy," wrote Vaishali Basu Sharma. "In addition to sophisticated financial markets, the most important pre-requisite of 'internationalisation' of currency is price stability." Exactly. It means that the RBI cannot keep the interest rate low to lower government borrowing cost while tolerating high inflation to increase tax collections. Can't expect others to accept the rupee while you are undermining its value. What do they say about having your cake (wikipedia)? 

Stone for the Party.

"As a push to 'sinicize' religion, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has embarked on a 10-year project to rewrite the Bible and other religious texts." Fox. In the Gospel of John, Jesus saves a woman accused of adultery by saying "let the one among you who is guiltless be the first to throw a stone at her." In the Chinese version, Jesus is the first to throw a stone at the woman for challenging the authority of the state. If the Communist Party actually makes Jesus stone the woman it will be supporting the Islamic practice of stoning to death of married people accused of adultery. wikipedia. "In a secret 2018 negotiation, the Vatican agreed to allow the CCP to select the Catholic bishops in China in exchange for vague assurances of 'safety' for some Catholic congregations which were immediately abrogated." Will this create enough jobs for the youth? "An unusually public claim by a Chinese professor that the country's youth unemployment rate might have hit close to 50% in March has revived a debate about official statistics and focused attention on a weak labor market." ET. "Grueling work hours and a dismal job market are forcing young Chinese to make unusual choices." BBC. "In recent weeks, Chinese social media has been flooded with atypical graduation photographs," which show "young people 'lying flat' in graduation gowns, faces covered with mortarboards; others show them holding their graduation certificates above dustbins, ready to bin them." "China is entering an era of much slower economic growth, raising a daunting prospect: it may never get rich." Reuters. "Policymakers hoped to narrow China's development gap with the United States." But its growth rate is expected to slow to 3-4%. "When Japan began to stagnate in the 1990s, it had already exceeded the average GDP per capita of high income countries and was nearing US levels. China, however, is only just above the middle-income point." To become a developed country, China's economy has to grow at around 5%. "But underlying trends - bad demographics, heavy debt and declining productivity growth - suggest the country's overall growth potential is only half that rate," wrote Ruchir Sharma. What about India? "Whether one is a developed country or not is a matter of definition," wrote economist Surjit Singh Bhalla. "Income must be measured in constant per capita PPP (purchasing power parity)." "In 2021-22, India's per capita income was PPP $6,067, about a third of a developed country's level of PPP $18,000. The 'target' per capita growth rate for India to achieve over the next 26 years is 4.1% per annum." And, bingo! India will be a developed country by 2047, the centenary year of Independence. "First came the news of the mysterious death of a senior officer of the PLA Rocket Force and then the disappearance of the same unit's commander." India Today. "Speculation intensified with the disappearance from public view of Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang around the same time, and many sought to draw connections between Qin Gang's disappearance and the turbulence within the PLA Rocket Force." So, there we are. China stuck, India zooming. Rocket.

Twitter's fault.

"A video showing two women being paraded naked by a mob in the northeastern state of Manipur, hit by violent ethnic clashes, has sparked outrage in India." BBC. "Deadly violence has plunged Manipur, a scenic Indian state bordering Myanmar, into turmoil for more than two months." BBC on 12 July 2023. "They were sparked by an affirmative action controversy which saw Kukis protest against a demand seeking tribal status for the Meities. The violence has left more than 130 people dead, and nearly 60,000 have become refugees in their own land." During these months of violence, while people were dying, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was visiting the US. "The White House is pulling out all stops to welcome Mr Modi - it's a state visit, the highest level of diplomatic protocol the US accords to visiting leaders." BBC. He was smiling happily with President Joe Biden. In his speech to the joint houses of the US Congress he said, "Throughout history, one thing has been clear, democracy is the spirit that supports equality and dignity." ET. What dignity for 60,000 refugees? "Today in modern India, women are leading us to a better future." What better future for the women wrestlers who have been sexually assaulted and molested by BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh? Not a word from Mr Modi. Instead the wrestlers were beaten up by Delhi Police and have been banned from protesting. Singh is out on bail within two days. HT. After the US, Mr Modi visited Egypt where he was conferred Egypt's highest honor and visited the Great Pyramid at Giza. India Today. Manipur was still burning. Then Mr Modi visited France. "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was treated to one of France's most spectacular accolades on Friday (14 July) as guest of honor at the Bastille Day military parade." Reuters. On the way back from France, Mr Modi visited the UAE. "Amid those shares, a video showing Burj Khalifa has gone viral. The clip shows the world's tallest building lighting up with the Indian tricolor to mark the visit of PM Modi." HT. Instead, so as not to spoil Mr Modi's mood during his foreign travels, "Internet services across all platforms have been banned in the state (Manipur) since May 3." TOI. The two women were paraded naked on 4 May after circulation of fake news about a rape, which had actually happened in Delhi. "One of the women, aged 21 was gang-raped. When her brother, a 19-year old attempted to intervene, he was killed." India Today. So, what did Mr Modi say in Parliament about the video? He is filled with pain and anger. Against whom? Enraged by the failure to cover up Manipur violence the government will punish Twitter. NDTV. "The incident might be from Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh or Manipur, the culprit must not go scot-free in any corner of the country," he said. Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are ruled by the Congress and Manipur by the BJP. Rape, murder, refugees, he is thinking of general election in May next year (wikipedia). Pain and anger. Not for the raped. Or the dead.       

A matter of value.

"Women now make up nearly 50% of employees in surveyed companies, representing a surge of 17% when compared to 2021, finds a new report." ET. "In its fifth edition, the report provides a compilation of data collected from over 300 companies across India between January 2022 and January 2023." Should be a good thing because these women can afford to pay a hefty dowry. "Dowries have been illegal in India since 1961, but the bride's family is still expected to gift cash, clothes and jewelry to the groom's family. Now a 27 -year-old teacher in the central city of Bhopal has started a petition asking the police to deploy officers at marriage venues and conduct raids to put an end to this 'social evil'." BBC. "According to the National Crime Records Bureau, 35,493 brides were killed in India between 2017 and 2022 - an average of 20 women a day - for bringing in insufficient dowry." This number would be a gross underestimation as many deaths would have been covered up through bribes and family connections. "Most Indian marriages are still arranged," and "Some 90% of the marriages studied until 1999 involved dowry. Dowry payments between 1950 and 1999 amounted to a quarter of a trillion dollars," wrote Soutik Biswas. Perhaps, one silver lining is that "As the number of educated grooms in a marriage market increases, there is a decrease in the 'dowry premium' that more educated grooms receive, the study found." On the other hand, a higher percentage of girls are clearing secondary schools compared to boys, wrote Shailja Vaidya Gupta. Of the 100% of enrollment in primary schools, "83% of girls and 81% of boys clear secondary school, while 67.7% of girls and 61.6% of boys clear higher secondary; this translates to a whopping 39% dropout rate for boys and a surprising 1.07 female-to-male ratio of students in educational attainment." The National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) 2019-2021 found that, "The sex ratio at birth (SRB), however, was still worryingly low at 929 (girls to 1000 boys), indicating continued sex selection at birth, despite an improvement from the previous survey." TOI. While the rest of the world reports sex ratio on the number of boys for every 100 girls, India counts its ratio on the number of girls per 1000 boys. The natural ratio is 103-107 boys for every 100 girls. Our World in Data. Multiplying by 10, the normal ratio is 1050 boys per 1000 girls. As per India's unique system it works out to 950 girls per 1000 boys. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) estimated the sex ratio in India at 910 girls per 1000 boys. drishtiias.com. So, there are fewer girls, a higher percentage of girls are more educated than boys, an increasing number of women is working in high paying jobs, and yet, an average of 20 women are killed for dowry everyday. They should add this in the National Curriculum of Educational Research and Training (NCERT) school textbooks to show our glory. Men selling themselves. Glorious indeed.       

Middle depends on top and bottom.

"The middle class is the fastest-growing major segment of the Indian population in both percentage and absolute terms, rising at 6.3 percent per year between 1995 and 2021. It now represents 31 percent of the population and is expected to be 38 percent by 2031 and 60 percent in 2047." ET. "Growing disposable incomes, along with the rise of the middle class, will make India a consumption powerhouse." The middle class is divided between Aspirers - household income between Rs 125,000-Rs 0.5 million ($1,543-$6,173) per year, Seekers - household income between Rs 0.5-Rs 1.5 million ($6,173-$18,519) and Strivers - household income Rs 1.5 million-Rs 3.0 million ($18,519-$37,370) per year, taking $1 as Rs 81 (xe.com). The World Bank defines lower middle income as gross national income (GNI) per capita between $1,036 and $4,045 and upper middle income as GNI per capita between $4,046 and $12,535. Of course, household income and per capita income are not comparable as the income of a household depends on the number of earning adults. For comparison, "According to research compiled by The Ascent, the median US household income is about $69,717. While the national average US household income was $97,962, the median is a better measure of Americans as a whole, as it's not skewed by extremely large or small incomes." fool.com. According to the Pew Research Center, middle-class income ranged from $30,000 per year for a single person to $210,000 per year for a household of five. Investopedia. Further, the US middle class has been classified according to which state they live in, hellawealth.com, as well as, which major US city they live in, Oakland Berkeley being the most expensive. CNBC. "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects India's GDP, in current US dollars, to reach $5.15 trillion in 2027 (India's 2027-28), past the coveted $5 trillion mark, to cross the GDP of Germany (fourth largest) and Japan (third largest) currently," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. "The IMF projects India's growth, somewhat optimistically, at 8.72 percent until 2027-28." "Germany's per capita income is $48,438 in 2022, whereas India's is $2,389." "The country's merchandise exports fell 22 percent to $32.97 billion in June from $42.28 billion a year earlier while imports declined 17.48 percent to 53.1 billion in June compared to $64.35 billion a year ago." ET. The trade deficit was $20.13 billion. "India's share in global exports jumped from 0.5 percent in 1990 to 1.7 percent in 2018 to 2.1 percent in 2022, Union Minister of State For Finance Dr Bhagwat Karat said." DH. Not much of a jump, is it? Less than those of tiny countries like Netherlands (3.26%), Singapore (2.87%) and Hong Kong (2.79%). theglobaleconomy.com. Per capita income can increase only by increasing exports and jobs. We can have as many middle class as we like. Just set a low threshold.

Gold bonds worth 7.77 tonnes of the metal.

"Goldman Sachs Research projects India will have the world's second-largest economy by 2075." "India has made more progress in innovation and technology than some may realize." "In India the demographic transition is happening more gradually and over a longer time period," which means "the dependency ratio, which is the non-working-age population that is dependent on the working-age population," "will be among the lowest among the large economies for the next 20 years or so." Of course, by 2075, most of those writing this report and most of those old enough to read it now, will be dead. "Around 415 million people exited poverty within a span of just 15 years between 2005 to 2021 in India, according to the latest Global Multi- dimensional Poverty Index (MPI)." TOI. "Notably, in India, the incidence of poverty fell from 55% (645 million) in 2005/2006 to 16% (230 million) in 2019/21." 415 million (41.5 crores) is more than the population of the US at 340 million. worldometer. Such a huge number of people exiting poverty means increased spending power and higher demand for everything from food to fuel. "Costs of food items ranging from chilly to staples including pulses and rice, consumed by crores of people, are singeing Indians, who in any case have been shelling out more than Rs 100 per liter of petrol in many parts of the country." ET. "India has traditionally been a savings rich economy, but the rising inflation has impacted both consumption and savings, with savings declining to a three decade low, said Utkarsh Sinha." "However, some records indicate that while the preference for saving through financial instruments has dropped, net savings in gold and silver has risen," he added. "Amid last month's stock market breakout, Indians purchased the largest quantity of sovereign gold bonds (SGBs) at 7.77 tonnes worth a whopping Rs 4,604 crore (Rs 46.04 billion) in the first series of this fiscal year, underscoring the preference for an asset that acts as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset at times of global uncertainty." Mint. "The SGB scheme, run by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on behalf of the government, has seen an average subscription of 1.72 tonnes across 64 series in the seven years and seven months since its introduction as an alternative to physical gold in 2015." At the same time, the number of people signing up for the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), a safety net for the rural poor, reached 30.4 million, the highest in three years. The Wire. "Food price spikes in India, typical at the onset of the monsoon, drove up headline inflation in June, corroborating the monetary policy committee's (MPC) view that the fight against inflation is far from over, the RBI said." Reuters. Food supply cannot be increased by raising interest rate, so the MPC will do nothing. "Fight against inflation" means it may not lower it. Hence, people buy gold. Trustworthy. 

Bonhomie is self interest.

"India is a global bright spot with a strong desire to grow even more, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Sunday (yesterday)." ET. "Secretary General of the Muslim World League and President of the Islamic Halal Organisation, Sheikh Muhammad bin Abdul Karim Al-Issa, said India is a great example of Unity in Diversity and his visit to the Akshardham  temple in the national capital...only served to reinforce the belief." ET. "Even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in Paris for a two-day visit on Thursday (13 July), the European Parliament adopted a motion on the ongoing violence in Manipur," and "Some of motions tabled in the EU Parliament by six parliamentary groups, criticised the Modi government's handling of the two-month-long violence in the state." Outlook. "Other resolutions referred to the broader misuse of Indian laws like the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), UAPA terror law and the Foreign Contributions Regulatory Act (FCRA) by the authorities in the country." "India has reiterated that Manipur is an 'internal matter' after the European Parliament adopted a resolution on the human rights situation in India." NDTV. In other words, Indian citizens are disposable, to be sacrificed if authorities so desire. Spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs Shri Arindam Bagchi responded, "Such interference in India's internal affairs is unacceptable and reflects a colonial mindset." The old chestnut. We are the new colonial power, so push off. "The European Parliament would be well advised to utilize its time more productively on its internal issues." In other words, "Up yours." "One reason that the BJP won a landslide in 2014 was because it promised to eradicate corruption and create an India based on clean governance," wrote Vir Sanghvi. "The BJP, which once railed against dynastic politics, now welcomes dynasts with open arms." "Corruption is now no more than a weapon, a means of inducing politicians to switch parties." "Days before Ajit Pawar joined the BJP alliance, Modi had publicly railed against the NCP's (Nationalist Congress party) corruption. The Enforcement Directorate has also attached assets worth Rs 1,000 crore (Rs 10 billion) allegedly belonging to Ajit Pawar." "Having first called Ajit Pawar corrupt, the BJP has now made him Deputy Chief Minister. It is a fair assumption that the corruption cases will now be forgotten." "The renewed hullaballoo about corruption - which as you know happens only among those in the political opposition; the clever ones who switch to the ruling party are at once washed clean with an unfailing saffron detergent - is, crucially, sought to be peddled with the stamp and seal of the Dear Leader," wrote Badri Raina. The Artha-shastra was written by Kautilya in the 4th century BCE. Britannica. "The ruthlessly realistic state system codified in the Artha-shastra insisted that foreign relations be determined by self-interest rather than by ethical considerations." So, the exaggerated bonhomie by foreign leaders is just superficial diplomacy. Parliamentarians are giving a hint if it doesn't work. Better not to react. Either way.

It's already a success.

"The successful launch of Chandrayaan-3 got the leadership of startups and big companies with Indian roots in Silicon Valley thumping their chests with pride and looking at what lies ahead for India."Zee. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has been making satellites and launching them from Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh, India, as well as on launch vehicles of other nations since 1980. wikipedia. Also, India has launched 424 satellites for 34 countries as of 22 April 2023, of which 231 belonged to the United States which has had a highly successful launch program itself. wikipedia. On 15 February 2017, India deployed 104 satellites, "the largest number of satellites launched on a single flight by any space agency". Chandrayaan-1 was launched in 2008 and was able to gather data for 312 days and was able to detect water molecules in the lunar soil. wikipedia. Chandrayaan-2 was deemed a failure although the spacecraft reached lunar orbit successfully. "India's attempt to land near the south pole of the moon, part of the Chandrayaan-2 mission ended when mission managers lost contact with the lander - seconds before touchdown - just 2 kilometers from the moon's surface." Science. "Some of the top representatives of the Silicon Valley companies echoed the sentiment that the successful launch of the lunar mission signaled emergence of India as a global leader in key areas of the technology sector." It is not possible that persons of Indian origin (PIO) living in the US are ignorant of our long history of space success and that the real test will come when the craft reaches the moon. "India's third moon mission Chandrayaan-3 will attempt the technically challenging soft landing on the lunar surface on August 23, more than a month after Chandrayaan-3 took off from the spaceport in Sriharikota piggybacking on the heavylift LVM3-M4 rocket." ET. India developed cryogenic engines on its own after, "The quest to acquire cryogenic technology faced not just technological challenges but also geopolitical sanctions. In fact, the US had at one point tried to scuttle India's Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) project." TOI. It even pressured Russia to cancel a contract to buy cryogenic engines from Glavkosmos. Now the US is using our launch vehicles for its satellites, presumably because we can do it for much less cost. So, there is no reason for cheap propaganda. For example, "India has emerged as the top choice for investing in emerging market debt, surpassing China, according to a report by Invesco." TN. "For 2022, three years after all the Covid-19 disruptions, the US GDP has grown to $25.46 trillion, China's GDP to $18.1 trillion, and India's GDP to $3.39 trillion,"wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. "Both the US and China have added more than India's 2022-23 GDP ($3.39 trillion) during this period," while India added just $0.55 trillion. Our space program is a true international success. We should wait for mission success before celebrating. Premature chest thumping is idiotic.    

Invest in what?

"China's financial regulators have invited some of the world's biggest investors to a rare symposium next week, three sources said, seeking to encourage foreigners to keep investing in the world's second-largest economy despite its recent weakness and rising geopolitical tensions." Reuters. "The country's post-pandemic recovery is quickly losing steam and Sino-US relations are at a low over national security issues - including Taiwan, US export bans on advanced technologies and China's state-led industrial policies." Showing how weak the economy is, "China's producer prices fell at their fastest pace in over seven years in June, while consumer prices teetered on the edge of deflation, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand." Reuters. But, stimulus for what? "China is awash with 'ghost cities' where apartment blocks stand abandoned or mothballed with some 65 million empty homes." The US Sun. "Rows of post-apocalyptic housing estates tower over visitors, and impressive attractions and shopping malls gather dust without any residents or tourists stepping foot inside." For some strange reason the Chinese government seems to think that it can entice foreign investors with the lure of profits while, at the same time, trying to subjugate their nations by spying on them and hacking into sensitive information. "China-based hackers have breached email accounts at two-dozen organizations, including some United States government agencies, in an apparent spying campaign aimed at acquiring sensitive information, according to statements from Microsoft and the White House." CNN. In the UK, "The House of Commons Intellingence and Security Committee (ISC) said in a wide-ranging report...that the intelligence threat posed by China is compounded by a 'whole-of-state' approach with the use of state and non-state actors used for spying." India Today. In addition to spying, China physically threatens its neighbors. Not content with the cowardly murder of 20 unsuspecting Indian soldiers at Galwan in Ladakh in June 2020, BBC, "China is rushing to complete a bridge across the Pangong Tso, connecting the north and south banks, India is fortifying a black-topped road on its side on the north bank." FE. Also, "China's air force and navy staged a second day of large-scale exercises with fighter jets, bombers and warships to Taiwan's south and southwest on Wednesday (12 July), the island's defence ministry said, as Beijing keeps up its military pressure." Reuters. You cannot threaten the world without retaliation. China's young people are feeling the pressure. "Last year, about 6.8 million couples registered for marriage, the lowest since records began in 1986, down from 13.5 million in 2013, according to government data released last month." NDTV. No marriage means no children. "In 2022, China had one of the world's lowest fertility rates at 1.2 births per woman." BT. No one trusts a hostile nation. Not even its own citizens. So, why invite investors?

Foreigners stupid?

"India has the mechanisms to tweak bilateral investment treaties for quick resolution of disputes" as "India parallelly negotiates bilateral investment treaties (BIT) - along with free trade agreements - with the UK and EU, which seek better investment protection and faster resolution of disputes," wrote Ravi Dutta Mishra. "India has so far stuck to its position favoring 'local remedies' to resolve investment-related legal disputes rather than agree to independent international arbitration after some high-profile losses." "New Delhi now insists that all BITs have to be negotiated using a template provided by a model treaty that favors state rights over investor rights." They must think that leaders of other nations are idiots who will allow their businesses to invest billions of dollars in a country where the government overrides a judgement of the Supreme Court by just passing an ordinance. An ordinance is passed by the government without parliamentary approval. wikipedia. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won 62 seats out of 70 in the Delhi Assembly and so constitutes the government of Delhi. wikipedia. However, in 2021 the central government controlled by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi passed a law taking away all powers of the elected Delhi government. "A month after Parliament passed a controversial bill giving sweeping powers to Delhi's Lieutenant Governor (LG), the Centre...notified the law that makes his prior opinion a must before every executive action by the Arvind Kejriwal-led Delhi government, and every legislative action by the state assembly." HT on 29 Apil 2021. The LG is appointed by the President on advice from the central government. In a dispute between the elected government of Delhi and the LG over who controls the bureaucracy, "The Supreme Court...in a unanimous judgement ruled in favor of the elected government and said it will have power on all services except law and order and land." HT on 11 May 2023. Almost immediately, "In a big, dramatic move, the Centre...promulgated an ordinance to nullify the recent Supreme Court order that had given Delhi government control over officers.., and assigned the superintending jurisdiction over the entire officer cadre in the National Capital Territory to the lieutenant governor." TOI on 20 May 2023. When politicians make themselves above the law the bureaucrats follow. "Uttar Pradesh government officials have 'scant respect' for orders of the highest court of the land, the Supreme Court has observed,  condemning a delay of almost a year by the state in complying with directions regarding remission of some convicts serving life sentences." HT. "The principle of sovereignty denotes that the source of governmental power or the sovereignty lies with the people." legalserviceindia.com. But, here politicians do whatever they please. Override or ignore the Supreme Court at will. And, they think foreign governments will agree to 'local remedies'. Only if they are brain dead.

The Fed will do it.

"USA consumer prices rose modestly in June," as "The CPI gained 0.2 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in May, the Labor Department said" ET. The CPI came in at 3%, as "Annual prices have retreated sharply from their 9.1 percent peak in June 2022." However, core inflation was at 4.8%, down from 5.3% in May. Inflation is falling because the US Federal Reserve raised its Funds rate by 500 basis points since March 2022. "Federal Reserve officials appear poised to resume interest-rate hikes this month after data showed inflation cooled sharply in June but remains above the central bank's target." yahoo. "But Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the growth in US consumer prices is still too quick even as it slowed in June, reiterating the central bank's commitment to restoring inflation to its 2% goal." "US jobs growth slowed last month," as "Employers added 209,000 jobs in June," which was "fewer than expected, though the unemployment rate still fell to 3.6%, down from 3.7% in May." BBC. Even so, "The Federal Reserve will likely raise its benchmark interest rate later this month to a 5.25%-5.5% range, traders bet on Friday (7 July), even as they priced a slightly lower chance of any further increase after a government report showed hiring slowed more than expected in June. Traders now see a 20% chance of a rate hike in September and a 40% chance of one by November." Reuters. "Employers posted 9.8 million job vacancies, down from 10.3 million in April, the Labor Department said. But layoffs fell slightly, and more Americans quit their jobs - a sign they were confident they could find better pay or working conditions elsewhere." PBS. The probability of a recession in the US jumped from 5.93% on 30 June 2023 to 17.63% on 31 July 2023 and to 67.31% on 30 June 2024. ycharts,com. "Bank of America responded by shelving the recession call it made at the start of the year, while Goldman Sachs economists say there's now just a 25% chance of a severe slump," but JP Morgan still believes that "there's just a 23% chance the US avoids a recession." BI. The US may be doing well, but developing economies are doing even better, wrote Ruchir Sharma. "Among the 25 largest emerging economies, three-quarters of those reporting data have beaten growth forecasts this year, some including India and Brazil, by a wide margin." "Forecasters now expect emerging economies to grow at an average pace above 4% over the coming year, or four times faster than the developed ones." However, "The rupee...closed at its weakest level versus the US dollar in almost a month as the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting indicated that the monetary policy would continue to be tightened in the world's largest economy, thus narrowing the rate differential with India." ET. Americans trust the Fed. Do Indians trust our Reserve Bank? People buy gold as a hedge. Safest investment.DNA.

Patrons and 100%.

"In February this year, the Union ministry of education informed the Lok Sabha that 750,365 new students flew abroad for higher studies in 2022, the highest number in six years, and 161,642 more than in 2019. Confirmation comes from another quarter, as online platform Yocket found a total of 1.32 million studying abroad in 2022, up from 1.14 million in 2021. Gurugram-based Redseer Strategy Consultants expect the number to go up to 1.8 million by 2024." May be because good students are being beaten by mediocre ones. Because, "It's a common experience that students are scoring higher marks in state and national school leaving ('Board') exams today than they have in the past," wrote Sridhar Rajagopalan. Why have students become so clever? "In many states, students from both state and central Boards compete for college seats." Boards compete to give higher marks to their examinees to help them score higher than students of other Boards. "Today, it is common for the highest score in each subject to be 100% or very close, often with the overall highest score also nearly 100%." Boards do this by "diluting paper difficulty and types of questions to ensure enough students can score high marks. They also make mark-sheet corrections more lenient and provide grace marks." When marks become so important parents resort to private tuition for their children. "The current market revenue of the coaching industry in India is Rs 58,088 crore (Rs 580.88 billion), according to Infinium Global Research, a consultancy firm based in Pune. The coaching industry's growth is projected to reach Rs 1,33,995 crore (Rs 1.34 trillion) by 2028."The Print. Byju's is an online coaching, or edtech, company. "Founded in 2011, Byju's launched its learning app in 2015." BBC. However, "Valued at $22bn last year, Byju's has seen its valuation slashed to $5.1bn this year by Prosus NV, the company's biggest investor and shareholder." As "in recent months, the company has been dogged by complaints as parents accused it of not fulfilling its promises - coercing them into buying courses they couldn't afford and then not providing the promised services. Some also said that the firm used predatory practices to exploit customers." Desperate children and parents are easy prey for sharks. "Business is booming in India's $117 billion education industry and new colleges are popping up at breakneck speed." Bloomberg. "Yet thousands of young Indians are finding themselves graduating with limited or no skills," as "Desperate to get ahead, some of these young Indians are paying for two or three degrees in the hopes of finally landing a job." Teachers are being recruited, not for their knowledge, but for political affiliation in recognised universities, wrote Apoorvanand. "If you do not have patrons in any faction of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), then you should not even think of applying." Political teachers and 100% students. The lucky ones are abroad.

High risk, high yields.

"India has now overtaken China as the most attractive emerging market for investing in emerging market debt, said a report by Invesco." TOI. "As per the report, a development sovereign based in the Middle East said, 'We don't have enough exposure to India or China. However, India is a better story now in terms of business and political stability." Nice, but no money where the mouth is (idioms). "In the battle between Asia's two highest-yielding markets, Indian assets look more promising than those of Indonesia." ET. "The Indian currency offers higher compensation for risk than the rupiah, with the carry to risk ratio 2.8 compared with just 0.5 for Indonesia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg." Since, yield is inverse of the price, Indian bonds are priced lower and the risk premium is higher. That may be because markets are pricing a much greater probability of higher inflation in India. "The highest bond yields among major Asian nations and a less volatile currency thanks to the central bank's intervention are burnishing the appeal of rupee assets." The RBI tries to keep the rupee from weakening to prevent prices, and inflation, from rising. "India's foreign exchange reserves saw an uptick of $1.9 billion, taking the overall level to $595.1 billion as on June 30, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed." ET. "It can be noted that in October 2021, the country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of USD 645 billion. The reserves have been declining as the central bank deploys the kitty to defend the rupee amid pressures caused majorly by global developments." In March 2023, a report by a parliamentary panel on commerce stated that "Despite appropriate resources, the country has not been able to utilise China Plus One via which several international companies moved manufacturing and production away from Xi Jinping's China." BW. "Amidst the heightened global uncertainty, the Indian economy has proved to be more resilient than many large economies of the world, a report from CII (Confederation of Indian Industry) has shown." ET. "Notably, 65 percent of respondents believe that the recent increases in private investment will continue during the current fiscal year." "Taiwan's Foxconn has withdrawn from a $19.5 billion semiconductor joint venture with Indian metals-to-oil conglomerate Vedanta, it said..., in a setback to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's chip making plans for India." Reuters. "It isn't just the Vedanta-Foxconn project that has hit a rough patch. A $3 billion proposal that had Israeli foundry Tower Semiconductor Ltd as a tech partner has also stalled, while a third plan is stuck because Singapore-based IGSS Ventures Pte wants to resubmit its application for incentives," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn's decision to pull out of Vedanta joint venture has no impact on India's semiconductor fabrication plant goal, minister of state for electronics and IT Rajeev Chandrashekhar said." ET. He has to save face, after all. General election is nigh.