Friday, May 20, 2022

Painful growth.

"Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran...said amid global uncertainties caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, India is still better placed among the large economies because of an improved financial system and a robust corporate health," ET. Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of public sector banks (PSBs) have declined from Rs 8.96 trillion on 31 March 2018 to Rs 5.60 trillion on 31 December 2021, as banks have recovered over Rs 3 trillion of bad loans, moneylife. Indian companies have trimmed their balance sheet and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has "raised capital expenditure (capex) by 35.4 percent for 2022-23 to Rs 7.5 lakh crore (Rs 7.5 trillion) to push the public investment-led recovery". "Thus, he said, India is expected to have a growth rate of 7-8 percent depending on the duration of the ongoing conflict." What does economic growth mean? "If you earn a salary of Rs 25,000 (per month) or higher, then your pay ranks in the top 10% of the total wages earned in India," according to a report by the Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM) to the Prime Minister, The Wire. At Rs 77.8 to one dollar, xe.com, this amounts to $321.3 per month. In 2020, India's average income per month was $160, less than the Philippines, Vietnam and Bangladesh, but higher than that of Pakistan, worlddata. "Extrapolating from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS 2019-20), the report said that the top 1% in India earns thrice as much as the bottom 10%." "What's more this trend is entrenching itself," as "the growth rate of the bottom 50% has been at 3.9% from 2017-18 to 2019-20, while the top has grown by 8.1%", with the top 1% growing by 15% and the bottom 10% actually falling by 1% in the same period. "Surging inflation is forcing many poor Indians to rein in spending," as "April saw wholesale and consumer prices accelerate at their fastest in years," TOI. Hindustan Unilever Ltd "said late last month that volumes were falling fast, mainly in rural areas." Had the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) paid more attention to Surf Excel it could have stayed ahead of inflation, wrote Andy Mukherjee. "The price of the laundry detergent went up by 20% in January. While that's hardly news when most everyday things are becoming dearer everywhere, the interesting part was the retail price before the change: 10 rupees (13 US cents for a bar)." Rs 5 and 10 are known as "magic price points" which help poor people stay within their tight budgets. To underline the difference between the haves and the have-nots, "Bank loans to purchase consumer durables like televisions, laptops and refrigerators jumped as much as 60% in FY22 compared with a 21% decline in the preceding fiscal," and "Spending on credit cards surged at a faster pace of 13% against an 8% growth in FY21," RBI data showed, ET. "About 250,000 workers employed at Surat's diamond polishing and cutting units have been asked to go on leave for 15 days from May 16" because of sanctions, ET. "The RBI has been behind the curve. Unfortunately, the monetary policy acts with a long lag. We will have to live with this pain until such time as the situation improves," said Mythili Bhusnurmath. Growth of the economy and growth of pain in tandem. Depends on who's paying.

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