Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Advantage of nominal over real.

"India's GDP grew by 4.1% in the fourth quarter of FY22. Meanwhile, the overall growth recorded for the financial year 2021-22 is estimated at 8.7% as against a contraction of 6.6% in FY21," ET. "The nominal GDP grew by 19.5% in the financial year 2021-22." Chief Economic Advisor Dr V Anantha Nageswaran said that "India is better placed than many other nations as the financial sector of the country is in better shape to support growth". "In the context of developing countries, recession is rarely on the cards, it is almost always a question of growth slowing down," he said. Reassuring. The difference between the nominal GDP growth at 19.5% and real GDP growth at 8.7% is because of adjustment for inflation, Investopedia. Since taxes are collected on nominal GDP, "India's gross tax collections soared to a record high of Rs 27.07 lakh crore (Rs 27.07 trillion) in the fiscal year ended March 31 as mop-up from income, corporate taxes, customs and GST jumped, taking the tax-to-GDP ratio to the highest in 23 years, Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj said," DH. Direct taxes grew by 49% to Rs 14.10 trillion while indirect taxes grew by 20% to Rs 12.90 trillion. Direct taxes are supposed to be 'progressive' because they are linked to income, so that the poor are protected, Investopedia. However, paying high taxes on income, which buys less because of soaring prices, makes people poorer. "India's annual per capita income at constant prices remained below the pre-COVID level at Rs 91,481 in 2021-22, official data showed," ET. The per capita income at constant prices was Rs 94,270 in 2019-20. However, at current prices the per capita income rose by 18.3% to Rs 150,000 in 2021-22. Hence the jump in tax collections. "Current series are influenced by the effect of price inflation. Constant series are used to measure the true growth of a series i.e. adjusting the effects of price inflation," World Bank. It also reflects the value of the currency. "Low interest costs, market consolidation, and tax savings lifted more than 80% of India's top listed companies out of the woods in the last fiscal year, shows a Mint analysis of earnings declared in recent weeks," wrote Niti Kiran. "A comparison of decadal compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of major sub-sectors from 1981-82 onwards shows that the last decade (2011-12 to 2021-22) was the second worst in terms of overall GVA (gross value added) growth," wrote Roshan Kishore. "However, a comparison of GVA numbers by sectors shows that employment intensive non-farm sectors have performed even worse in the last decade." Unemployment. "India has seen a huge expansion in money supply from Rs 13 trillion in 2016 to Rs 30 trillion in 2022," wrote Ajit Ranade. "How much of this money has led to inflation in India is anybody's guess." Seigneurage is what the Reserve Bank (RBI) earns from the difference in the value of the rupee and the cost of printing it, Investopedia. "Seigneurage income and collections of this implicit inflation tax are always a tempting option for governments, since they don't need to announce a politically unpopular increase in tax rates." The government earns more while the people earn less. The RBI is the accessory.   

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