Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Can't put it back once it is out.

"Three-quarters of the way through the midterm election cycle, it doesn't look like anything will change the ominous forecast for Democrats. And Republicans look well-positioned to take back Congress this fall," wrote Nathan L Gonzales. "President Joe Biden's job rating inverted in the aftermath of the withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 and has never recovered." Democrats are trying very hard not to lose, including trying to sabotage the US Supreme Court. The Politico published a leaked draft opinion of the Court which will apparently reverse Roe v Wade, NBC. In 1969, in the case of, Jane Roe, a fictitious name given to Norma McCorvey, versus District Attorney of Dallas County, Texas, Henry Wade the then Supreme Court ruled that "the choice to undergo abortion during the first three months of a pregnancy must be made by the woman and her doctor, India Times. If Democrats lose the Congress Biden could become lame duck and Republicans could open investigations into the 2020 presidential election which, Donald Trump believes, was rigged by the Democrats, TOI. Then, there is an ongoing federal grand jury investigation into Hunter Biden about tax evasion and shady dealings in Ukraine, BS. Russia has alleged that a fund led by Hunter Biden was financing biological weapons labs in Ukraine, BS. However, it is the economy which may decide if Democrats can hang on to Congress. On 5 May, the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rate by 0.5% and promised to keep on hiking until it got inflation under control, ET. On 11 May, "analysts expect the consumer price index (CPI) to show a sharp pullback in monthly growth, cooling to 0.2% in April from 1.2% in March -- the biggest monthly jump in more than 16 years -- and an annual increase of 8.1%, 0.4 percentage point lower than the prior 8.5%, which was the hottest reading since December 1981," Reuters. Monetary policy cannot work so quickly so the fall in inflation could be because of a strong dollar. Bar a handful of outliers, including the Brazilian real and Peruvian sol, the dollar is omnipotent versus pretty much every currency in both the developed and developing world," ET. "The stronger dollar is also doing the Fed's work in combating inflation by tightening financial conditions on a trade weighted basis." The strong dollar should be making imports from China cheaper. But, "Biden says White House could drop Trump China tariffs lower consumer prices," CNBC. Sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine are causing inflation. ""Today, it is Russia against Ukraine and the West. Tomorrow, it could be Iran going nuclear, North Korea engaging in more nuclear brinkmanship, or China attempting to seize Taiwan. Any one of these could lead to a hot war with the US," wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. Or, all of them together. After all, this is the best time. Removing Saddam Hussein strengthened Iran, Brookings. What if China invades Taiwan, or supplies arms to Russia? Will the US impose sanctions on China while dropping tariffs? Democrats are losing control just to win November elections. Don't let the genie out of the bottle. Can't put it back in.

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