Who has enough wealth?

"India is one of the worst affected countries due to coronavirus but it'll become the world's fifth largest economy by 2025 and the third largest by 2030 after overtaking the UK in 2025, a UK-based think tank has said. As per the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), India will surpass Germany in terms of GDP by 2027 and Japan by 2030." Very reassuring indeed. "Abstracting from the inherent flux in high frequency indicators, the underlying trend would reveal that the pick-up in momentum of economic activity that commenced with the second half of 2020-21 is sustained," RBI said. Quite. Though volatile the economy is picking up, says the Reserve Bank (RBI), but future growth depends on whether the government provides a fiscal stimulus and on whether consumer inflation remains under control. After contracting by 23.9% in the first quarter, the Indian economy contracted by 7.5% in the July-September quarter as compared to the same quarter last year. JP Morgan's estimates suggest that on a quarterly basis, India's GDP plunged 25% in the 1st quarter of 2020-21 and recovered by 21% in the second quarter. "India did not suffer two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and, therefore, is not in a recession," wrote Jahangir Aziz. What is required is extensive income support immediately. If the government won't, can the rich get the economy growing faster by spending more? asked Roshan Kishore. "The pain has gone down to the bottom 30%-40% of the enterprises and individuals. While from an inequality perspective that is a disastrous outcome, from an economic momentum perspective that is actually the best possible outcome," said Neelkanth Mishra. This is because "The top 10% of the Indian economy consumes more than the bottom 50%," and these people have seen their savings grow. However, "The top 8% of salary income earners had a share of just 14% of PFCE (private final consumption expenditure) . This is less than even 10% of the overall GDP." The rich cannot stimulate growth, only the government can.  2020 showed the power of the Indian State, wrote Prashant Jha. "The State decided what would be the protocol for testing citizens for Covid-19, who would be prioritised in terms of treatment, what would be the manner of differential treatment, who got admission to hospitals and who had to wait." But it was spectacularly absent when millions of jobless migrants walked hundreds of miles back to their villages because "it was not the sarkar, the government, but their samaj, the community back home which inspired hope". Those who stayed back in cities have suffered. "The urban poor faced the brunt of job losses during the pandemic and saw their incomes plunge the most," wrote Nikita Kwatra and Tauseef Shahidi. "Among whose who earn less than Rs 20,000 a month, 11% of those without a professional degree reported losing their jobs. In the same income bracket, only 5% those with professional university degrees lost their jobs the data shows." Post Brexit Britain wants a trade deal with India so no harm in a bit of old fashioned buttering. CEBR trying to help.