Wednesday, December 23, 2020

Moratorium is just another word for evergreening. Isn't it?

"India's economic activity showed signs of stabilizing in November," as "All eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News were steady last month, keeping the needle on a dial measuring the so called 'Animal Spirits' unchanged at 5." "Animal spirits was a term coined by the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes, to describe how people arrive at financial decisions, including buying and selling securities, in times of economic stress or uncertainty." Indian share markets are certainly showing signs of ferocious animal spirits by scaling record heights. "The contrast between the euphoric Indian equity market and anemic underlying economic growth is getting sharper by the day," wrote Harsha Jethmalani. "But a number of market experts say while Indian equities are a dearer bet, they are not in bubble territory." "The tally of newly incorporated companies, as well as electronic permits raised for transporting goods, declined on a sequential basis in November for the first time since April," reported the Hindustan Times. "In an in-house 'economic comeback indicator' that ranges between -2 and 10, Care Ratings has assigned a score of 2.62 for November." A case of glass half full. "With the post-tax return on fixed deposits plummeting to 4%, way below consumer inflation, more and more investors are driven towards equities, notwithstanding the risks," wrote an editorial in The Economic Times. "The story is playing out in a market that has run ahead of fundamentals: the Sensex is trading at 31-32 times its earnings against an average price-to-earnings multiple of 20 in the last two decades." The Sensex reached price/earnings ratio over 28 in 2008 and over 30 in 2018 and sharp corrections followed on both occasions. This time is much more hazardous as many people are playing with their savings after losing their jobs, so we can expect a wave of suicides if the market crashes. "A new study by economists at Denmark's central bank finds that the unusual monetary policy tool (negative interest rate) can encourage more investment and employment in an economy," wrote Nikita Kwatra. Negative interest rates are supposed to combat falling prices, or deflation, so if Danish companies are increasing production during falling prices that will only add to downward pressure on prices, though increasing employment may mitigate some of this pressure by increasing demand. The Federal Reserve in the US has rejected adopting negative interest rates. Chairman of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) MS Sahoo warned recently that India will witness a spike in insolvencies in coming days. In response the government has extended the suspension of the bankruptcy code till 31 March. That's when the proverbial will hit the fan and thousands will become paupers. Unless they extend it again. Good old evergreening is back. Officially.    

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