Tuesday, December 01, 2020

The vanishing middle class.

"As the covid pandemic continues, the Narendra Modi government has spent millions of rupees to aid the poor," wrote Sandipan Deb. Excellent, "But the middle-class devastation that has been going on for the past few months has received almost no attention -- either from the government, or the media." Hundreds of thousands have been sacked and those remaining have seen their salaries slashed by up to 40%. "The economy is shrinking this year and companies have seen their sales decline year-on-year for five straight quarters. But listed companies have never made profits like they made in the quarter ended September 2020," wrote Mahesh Vyas. "Understandably, shareholders are being rewarded interim dividends and buybacks," but rise in wages has been little. Naturally stock markets recorded their highest levels a few days back. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) had poured Rs 58,694 crore (Rs 586.94 billion) into Indian stocks till 26 November. "Over the last few years, bank credit to industry has been shrinking, while that to consumers has been growing rapidly," wrote Vivek Murthy, With jobs being lost due to shrinking of the economy, "consumers without jobs and income will be unable to pay the huge debts they are now incurring". "Since April, most economists have maintained that high inflation will be transitory. Yet it has assumed a permanence throughout the year, driven by high food prices," wrote Nikita Kwatra. "The world economy will bounce back in 2021 with global gross domestic product jumping up by 4.2% after falling in similar proportion this year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says in its latest report. As the world recovers from the virus induced recession, commodity prices will rise affecting India, because we import 80% of our oil needs. India imported "270 million metric ton of crude oil valuing $120 billion in 2019-20," wrote Abhimanyu Joon. "The amount is nearly 500% more than the average value of exports made by India in the corresponding year." The price of petrol is now at record levels of which taxes comprise over 60%. The Reserve Bank (RBI) has created the real interest rate which is effectively (-)4% in India, said Prof Raghuram Rajan, which means middle class savings are being sacrificed to help the government and its cronies. Richard Cookson is worried about inflation picking up sharply as "the developed world recovers over the next few months". However, "As has been the case for many years, global inflation has 'Made in Asia' stamped all over it." A combination of loss of income, high prices, extortionate taxes, and RBI repression may eliminate the middle class and make us all poor. Real equality.

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