Monday, November 02, 2020

When you have a willing stooge.

 "Two reports released independently of each other last week" reveal problems "which if unaddressed will not only risk reversing the gains achieved in poverty alleviation, but also fundamentally skew the dynamics of inequality -- which in turn risks overturning prevailing social equilibrium with potentially catastrophic consequences", wrote Anil Padmanabhan. "One, only a little under one-third of India's schoolchildren are accessing education online", and two, "the vexing issue of gender inequality". "How do the rich survive in a country that is vastly poor?" asked Manu Joseph. Because, he reasons, "the poor seem to hate each other as much or even more than they do the upper classes". As stock markets have soared in most countries the number of billionaires have gone up. It is no different in India, as the share market made a V-shaped recovery from 25,900 levels in March to 40159 today. The explanation given is that markets are pricing in a strong recovery and higher profits for our companies in the near future. "The market capitalization of all listed companies in India hit a record Rs 161 trillion ($2.11 trillion) on Thursday, as the rebound in several macro indicators and earnings optimism fired up stocks," wrote Sultana and Sonavane. "A surge in global liquidity, balance sheet expansion by central banks and stimulus measures by governments have contributed to the overall rally in India equities for the past few months," said Prasanna Pathak." But, whereas the US is considering another stimulus taking the total to 30% of GDP and Japan has already provided stimulus worth 40% of GDP, India, by contrast, has provided just 2% fiscal stimulus, wrote AS Aiyar. Because, "Most likely, the PMO (Prime Minister's Office) fears that a fiscal spending spree will send inflation soaring to 9%, the level at which voters have historically rebelled against the ruling party." The Reserve Bank (RBI), on the other hand, has been most active. It has been using all means to force the bond market to reduce yields on 10-year bonds to below 6%, wrote Aparna Iyer. Yields are down to 5.88% in the secondary market. It has also infused enormous liquidity. "The liquidity surplus is in excess of Rs 5 trillion" due to bond buying and  by buying dollars by the RBI which increases an equivalent amount of rupees into the system. "Millions of households are staring at negative returns from their savings with inflation peaking at more than 7% in September," wrote Shayan Ghosh. This is severe financial repression on the hapless people of India. Slashing returns from savings along with using high inflation to reduce government debt by a subservient RBI is a violent assault on the people. We are used to it. Still hurts.          

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