Thursday, November 26, 2020

What if everyone starts to buy stuff?

 "Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das has raised concerns over demand sustainability with the close of the festive season and rise in Covid-19 infections in India which pose downside risk to growth." "After witnessing a sharp contraction in GDP by 23.9% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year", economic growth rose sharply in September and October due to festival demand but "they have moderated sharply since then". "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut interest rates by 'a great deal' and more policy space can be created when inflation eases, its executive director and interest rate-panel member Mridul Saggar said." "The high share of food expenditure in our CPI basket results in a significant bearing of it on the blanket CPI figure whenever there is a change in food prices," wrote Karan Bhasin. There is no guarantee of a quick easing of supply side problems as several states are considering repeat lockdowns to control rising cases of virus infections, wrote Arunabh Saikia. According to Prof Raghuram Rajan, "a reverse repo rate of 3.35% along with CPI inflation of over 7% meant the real interest rate is (-)4%". "This has created an alarming situation for households that are facing growing financial insecurity as a result of the widespread disruptions caused by the pandemic," wrote Shayan Ghosh, as their savings are being decimated. "In October, retail prices of meat, fish and eggs grew at 19-22% year-on-year. At 18% higher prices, pulses too are significantly expensive compared to last year," wrote Sayantan Bera. Prices are expected to moderate by February 2021, but "Global food prices rose for the fifth consecutive month in October led by cereals, sugar, dairy, and vegetable oil, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in its monthly Food Price Index." There is a possibility of a sharp rise in global inflation, wrote Richard Cookson. "As has been the case for many years, global inflation has 'Made in Asia' stamped all over it." "Prices are rising strongly, in part because Asian growth is humming." This, combined with loss of manufacturing capacity and restrictions on transportation may cause inflation to rise. If central banks in Europe and the US raise interest rates to control inflation some of the money invested by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in Indian markets may decide to go back which would put downward pressure on the rupee and raise prices of imports, especially oil. Maybe, that's why the RBI has been feverishly accumulating foreign exchange reserves, which reached a record level of $572.771 billion. "Economists were not impressed by India's latest economic stimulus aimed at boosting domestic demand by about 730 billion rupees ($9.94 billion) -- and some questioned if the new measures can spur long-term growth." What if it stimulates inflation instead? A faint heart never won a fair lady. In this case, Mother India.     

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