Thursday, November 19, 2020

We cannot miss what we don't know.

 "Companies listed on the stock markets made bumper profits in the quarter ended September 2020," wrote Majesh Vyas of the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy. "The economy is shrinking this year and companies have seen their sales decline year-on-year for five straight quarters," but profits grew by 21.9% while, wages grew by only 3.8%, "which was lower than the bottom quartile of its distribution which was 7.8 percent". A rise in the wage bill of a company maybe due to an increase in the number of workers or a rise in wages of individual workers. Increased profits could be due to higher margins because of higher prices, which could account in part for retail inflation surging to 7.6% in October from 7.3% in September. Share of wages was 5-6% of net sales before Covid, rose to 9.1% in the June quarter, before falling back to 6.2% in the September quarter, suggesting a decrease in workforce and not a cut in wages. With abundant monsoon we may expect a boom in agriculture, and "There has also been an appreciable improvement of both manufacturing and service sectors in October," wrote M Govinda Rao. "With a balance sheet crisis affecting corporates, banks as well as the government, there has been a sharp slowdown in investment activiy." The least the government can do is to clear all pending bills of contractors which state governments are unable to do because of fall in revenue. "In response to its shrinking share in the total revenue pool, the center has over the years resorted to raising additional revenues through cesses and surcharges. Constitutionally, these are outside the remit of the finance commission's devolution formula and need not be shared with the states," wrote Nikita Kwatra. With sales falling, the private sector cannot invest. "The pandemic has created a perfect storm for corporate India, which was already pruning its capital expenditure plans to cope with sluggish growth when the coronavirus crisis struck in March," wrote Sultana and Ramarathinam. The Indian government has announced a production linked incentive (PLI) scheme for 10 sectors worth Rs 1.46 trillion but, "There are stringent eligibility criteria, allowing only firms with adequate track records to claim benefits," wrote Pradeep S Mehta. And, "Applicants must submit detailed proposals with steep application fees," making it almost impossible. Because of a lack of detailed maps of India, the cost of last mile delivery in India is 30% of total cost, despite much lower cost of labor, while in the US it is just 10% of total cost, wrote Rahul Matthan. "Thanks to draconian regulations that require everyone engaged in this business to take permissions for everything they do, there has been little innovation in this field." So, Indians turn to Google Maps for detailed instructions on how to reach any address. Foreigners know more about India than us. Clearly, ignorance is bliss. Our government believes.      

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