Wednesday, November 18, 2020

At least we will be self-reliant in our insufficiency.

 "Addressing a seminar on Monday, India's external affairs minister S Jaishankar made an eloquent case for a globalization game adapted to a world of trade that could not escape the shadow of 'state capitalism'," wrote an editorial in the Mint. He was hinting at China. "Despite fair-play rules of the World Trade Organization, China has largely gotten away with what looks like the active use of state resources to swamp markets elsewhere." "After eight years of talks, China and 14 other nations from Japan to New Zealand to Myanmar on Sunday formally signed one of the world's largest regional free trade agreements, a pact shaped by Beijing partly as a counterweight to US influence in the region," wrote Bradsher and Swanson. "The agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, is limited in scope. Still, it carries considerable symbolic heft." In November last year India pulled out of talks to join the RCEP "in the face of stiff resistance from domestic industries and political circles and reluctance of partners like China to grant it meaningful concessions despite hard negotiations in recent weeks".  "There are concerns that India's decision would impact its bilateral trade ties with RCEP member nations, as they may be more inclined to focus on bolstering economic ties within the bloc," wrote Prabha Raghavan. India already has trade deficits with 11 of the 15 RCEP countries. Instead, Prime Minster Narendra Modi is emphasizing 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' or 'self-reliant India' which was accepted practice till 1991 and "created a system of perverse incentives where domestic firms had no reason to become more efficient", wrote Udit Misra. "Protectionism, as has been repeatedly pointed out, by erecting barriers to entry, leads to the creation of high cost and uncompetitive domestic manufacturing sector." "The government says this is not self-sufficiency, which was attempted -- with disastrous results -- by (Jawaharlal) Nehru and Indira Gandhi," wrote SA Aiyar. "A seminal paper by Bhagwati and Ramaswami in 1963 implied that if a government sought to support a particular sector, it was better done by a subsidy than a tariff. Nehru and Indira took the tariff route and failed." India faces an 'impossible trinity' of choices, wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. "No country can simultaneously have trade protection, competition in its domestic market and manufacturing at a global scale." "If the focus (under Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative) is on import substitution by erecting tariffs, which we have done lot of in the last few years, then it is a direction we have tried before and it has failed," said Prof Raghuram Rajan. Increasing taxes on imports allows high taxes on domestic production as well. People cannot afford cars because taxes increase prices by over 65%. However, the government thinks that, with 20% of 1.3 billion people possessing wealth of $10,000-100,000 and 2% possessing over $100,000, it can extort as much tax as possible and use it to distribute handouts to win elections. "Centrally-devised industrial plans, as we learnt from the Soviet experience, could go awry over the years." Who cares? After all, "In the long run we are all dead."    

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