Could it be a disadvantage to have no opponents?

As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its Funds Rate by 25 basis points to 1.5-1.75% yesterday. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed a split between those who want three rate rises this year against those who want four. The puzzle is that both core and headline inflation is predicted to remain at 1.9%, below the Fed's benchmark rate of 2%, even though growth is expected to remain strong and unemployment rate to drop from 4.1% at present to 3.8% this year and 3.6% in 2019. Members expressed concern about a trade war which raises a doubt about future interest rate rises. US stocks finished slightly lower but Asian markets are mixed this morning with Japan and India rising. Surprisingly, the dollar dropped sharply, presumably because traders expected a more hawkish tone from the FOMC. After having increased tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, Trump is about to announce $60 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese products, in retaliation for China flouting intellectual property rights of US companies. The US controlled nearly three quarters of global steel output at the end of World War II, wrote Prof S Mihm, but lost that advantage for not adopting new technologies, like basic-oxygen or electric-arc methods. There are many supporters of China in the US. A new book claims that Obama changed rules to help friends make a lot of money from China trade. Trade wars are a definite possibility, wrote R Singhal, because the US is subverting the World Trade Organization by holding up appointment of judges to its appellate committee and walking away from trade deals. Economists are divided on whether there is a winner in tariff wars and what an optimum tariff should be, but Trump could gain by gaining concessions from trading partners, wrote Prof V Dahejia. The Communist Party in China amended its constitution to allow Xi Jinping to remain president for life. He probably has to, having used the excuse of corruption to jail anyone who could challenge his power. He used very tough language against other nations at the party Congress. Whether he will accede to Trump or precipitate a trade war remains to be seen, but having thumped his chest he probably has to be seen to be tough. European banks are still hampered by 760 billion Euros in bad loans, wrote F Giugliano, so Europe has a lot to lose from trade wars. Will China encourage its rogue friends, Pakistan and North Korea, to make trouble? The present Cold War is much more dangerous than the previous one between the US and the Soviet Union, wrote Prof WPS Sidhu. A Cold War plus a trade war could become a real war. Trump has a lot of opponents at home, Xi has none. But, Xi has a lot more to lose.