At least we know what to expect.

What happens to India if there is an all out trade war? "India is such a minuscule part of the global trade. I do not know any amount of trade war can harm it. It may harm a few sectors here or there, but I do not think anybody is looking at a really bad scenario of Indian exporters. I do not even think we are on the radar of most companies barring the US for IT executives," said A Srivastava. Ouch. China had a trade surplus with the US of $375 billion, Mexico had a surplus of $71 billion, Japan $68.8 billion and Germany $64.2 billion, while India had a surplus of only $22.9 billion. It is only 1.9% of US trade making it the ninth largest trading partner of the US. So, what is our fear? "Our concern is withdrawal from equity markets by global investors." "If liquidity is not good our poor fundamentals depress it further." Poor fundamentals? Only a few days back everyone was celebrating a growth of 7.2% in the third quarter, making India the fastest growing economy in the world. Gross value added was up, core sector growth was up, gross fixed capital formation was up, and manufacturing was still positive. "The next bear market is going to be the worst in my lifetime -- just because of the debt -- but if we also have a trade war, it's going to be worse than a disaster." said J Rogers. "China's a huge buyer of American agriculture, so of course that is the obvious place to hit back because that hurts Mr Trump the worst." If China stops buying the US may dump agricultural products on world markets depressing commodity prices. Indian farmers are already suffering from low commodity prices and rising costs of production, wrote Prof Himanshu. Farmers are calling for free markets so that they can sell the produce where the price is highest, as well as export them if they get higher prices internationally. The government faces an impossible fiscal trinity. It cannot allow high food prices as that will cause inflation and it cannot keep food prices low by paying farmers directly because that will increase its fiscal deficit. Farmers are forced to sell to middlemen, who buy low and sell high, and agricultural land cannot be used for other purposes so farmers cannot sell out, wrote Prof S Rajagopalan. If global prices fall farmers will be hit very hard. India faces risks similar to 2013, wrote VA Nageswaran. Our trade deficit is high, fiscal deficit cannot be contained and bond yields have risen over 100 basis points. Banks are still revealing the extent of bad loans. Risks will get multiplied because general elections must be held by May 2019 and there are elections to key state assemblies before that, wrote M Chakravarty. So, even though we will not be affected directly by a trade war between China and the US we will be cooked anyway. That is so reassuring.