Sunday, March 18, 2018

Economist see the bigger picture, people see themselves.

Increased tariffs on steel and aluminium imports into the US by President Donald Trump has unleashed a storm of condemnation and derision. High current account deficit is because Americans are saving too little, so raising tariffs will only make goods more expensive for them, without much effect on the deficit, wrote SA Aiyer. "Globalization wasn't supposed to end like this," wrote M Chakravarty, wistfully. "Globalization had shifted production en masse to the poorer countries, where goods were manufactured and tradable services provided at rock bottom rates. Many poor countries benefited and millions were lifted out of poverty. The low cost of production kept inflation down in the developed economies, in turn enabling central banks to keep interest rates low. The expansion of global supply chains to the Third World reduced wage pressure in developed countries, pushing up profits." Workers in the US lost out because of this shift to low wage countries and Trump tapped into this anger, wrote Prof D Gupta. The US should refrain from 'neo-protectionism' because loss of manufacturing jobs is because of automation, wrote Prof K Basu. Instead those who lose jobs should be educated in new technologies so that they can adapt to the new working environment. If everyone had the brains to be a professor of economics they would not be doing manual jobs, would they? Writing about increasing inequality, Prof Basu criticises recent tax cuts by Trump and suggests a kind of universal basic income for everyone. This can be done by giving everyone a share in profits of the economy. How are these profits to be calculated? The US runs a trade deficit with the rest of the world which amounted to $566 billion in 2017. The national debt of the United States exceeds $21 trillion. Although most of the debt is within the US, and the US can print dollars, the interest payment on such a humongous debt is substantial. Where are the profits? Companies have been taking advantage of free movement of capital by holding cash offshore and avoiding taxes in the US. Following tax cuts, criticised by Prof Basu, US companies have been paying cash bonuses to their workers, and will have to pay billions in taxes on cash held overseas. Ronald Reagan's policies were much more protectionist than Trump's, wrote Prof D Rodrik, but Reagan consulted with allies while Trump is unilateral. Low wages and low inflation encouraged central banks to keep interest rates low, leading to a massive asset price bubble, wrote VA Nageswaran. It is not about numbers but about how people feel. Perhaps economists are too clever to understand.

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