Wednesday, February 03, 2016

Why do we prefer fantasy in real life?

Eminent economist, John Maynard Keynes is reputed to have said," When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?" In India policies are not based on information but on howling mobs, called activists. On the one hand they demand the right to food for all the poor but also demand that no trees should be cut, pesticides used to protect crops or dams be built to provide water for irrigation, so as not to damage the environment. Gender selection in babies is illegal in India. However, according to politicians and activists gender selection is still rampant. A census conducted by the government reveals that there are 944 girls for every 1000 born. The normal sex ratio in humans is 934 girls for every 1000 boys. Although there are minor variations this is true for every country in the world. If we look at the table for India there is an excess of girls in 18 states, up to Lakshadweep, after which the ratio falls off so that the average for the country is quite normal. A few days back Mrs Maneka Gandhi, Minister for Women and Child Development proposed that the law should be turned upside down so that gender determination is made compulsory and the baby will be followed to birth to prevent abortion of female babies. Naturally this has provoked a knee jerk outbreak of howling. The ignorance is breathtaking. First, there should be a study as to why there is such a huge excess of girls in Kerala and Puducherry. That might give a solution to female feticide. Second, do not waste resources on states that are already doing well so that resources are concentrated on the states that are doing badly. Women are under enormous pressure to produce boys so it is amazing that not one woman, politician or activist, is focusing on the real reason as to who is responsible for producing girls. Women have two X chromosomes so can contribute only an X, while men have one X and one Y, so it is the father who selects the sex of child. Our government keeps threatening to respond severely to repeated attacks by Pakistan but continues to talk peace even after the attack on the airbase in Pathankot. Yesterday, Hafiz Saeed praised the attack and promised new ones. So what is the fig leaf provided by our intrepid leaders? His group, the JuD, was not responsible for the attack but JeM was. Mad dogs cannot be distinguished with alphabets, you just shoot the lot. In an effort to control black money and reduce outflow of precious foreign currency the government made it mandatory to provide PAN number for any purchase of gold above Rs 200,000, which has only increased unofficial trading. The reason why people buy gold is because they expect prices to rise by double digits in the medium to long term. This means that they do not trust politicians to keep prices under control. Ascertain the facts, then act on them.

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