Monday, February 29, 2016

A bit of this, a bit of that and a bit meaningless.

The Union Budget day, the most terrifying day of the year, passed yesterday and thankfully we have not been saddled with huge tax hikes. What a relief! Now we can wipe our sweat and relax till next year, when the circus returns once more. There are some good things in the budget and some idiotic. What is the point in spending Rs 1 billion in reviving 160 airports if the excise duty on jet fuel is raised from 8% to 14%, which will make flying too expensive for a majority of people? With salaries of useless govt employees jumping due to the Seventh Pay Commission it is sensible to try to reduce the number of employees. Provided, of course, the govt knows how many employees it has. The biometric identity card will be made mandatory for all citizens so govt employees should be paid according to their Aadhar number, which will immediately banish ghost employees. A 0.5% cess has been added to Service Tax which will take it to 14.5% but it does not matter because a tax rate of 18-20% has been proposed in the Goods and Services Tax Bill. The budget hopes that the GST bill will be passed. Really? The nominal GDP growth has come down because of lower inflation which has increased the debt to GDP ratio from 57% to 67% in 3 years. With yields on bonds rising the interest outgo will be higher. Wholesale prices have been falling for 15 months in a row which means less collections from excise duties and VAT, which are levied on ad velorem basis. If GST becomes law the govt will not be able to increase taxes at whim with sly additions of cess, which are taxes on taxes, so its wish maybe pious, but false. Increasing rural infrastructure is vital and the proposal to create an e-market, which will reduce the stranglehold of middlemen on agricultural products, is absolutely brilliant. However, the increase in duty on latex to 20% will increase the price of condoms. Absolutely stupid, seeing that India is suffering from a population curse and condom use needs to be encouraged. Levying a cess of 2.5% on diesel cars is completely senseless. It would be much better to increase excise duty on diesel while lowering it on petrol so that both cost the same, as in the US, where petrol is slightly cheaper than diesel. Since diesel cars cost a lot more car owners will shift to petrol engines while diesel prices will not rise much because of very low crude price at present. Keeping diesel price low to keep inflation in check is stupid. Finally, the intention behind spending Rs 18 billion on increasing skills of young people is good but where are the jobs. Banks cannot lend because of huge bad loans and business fellows cannot repay loans because they have diverted the money into real estate and cannot reduce prices to sell properties because they have bought land at humongous prices. It will be a hard slog. But at least get rid of the idiotic bits.

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