Monday, February 22, 2016

Can there be a lower than low caste?

A survey of 1,491 salaried or self-employed people in 11 cities in India shows that half of them are not satisfied about the state of our nation. Compared to 2014, 41% think that the economy will improve next year as opposed to 38% who think that it will get worse. Worries about jobs, corruption and rising prices are common. Another survey showed that 70% of people in Delhi believe that there has been no reduction in corruption under the AAP government. For the first time 58% are worried about the rising population, a rapidly multiplying cancer that is destroying our nation. First it was the Patels in Gujarat who demanded to be classified as low caste. Then it was the turn of the Kapus in Andhra and within the last week there have been violent clashes in the outskirts of Delhi, resulting in 19 deaths, as Jats have been demanding that they be classified as low caste. Why are prosperous farming communities looking to be classed as low caste? Because digital knowledge is changing the world at blinding pace where those who know English and are skilled in computers will earn vast amounts while artificial intelligence and robotics take away traditional jobs in industry. The Land Acquisition Act of 2013 has made it almost impossible for farmers to get out of farming. Reserved seats in higher education will provide a paper certificate which will then lead to a government job, which is permanent, where no one is sacked for incompetence and provides a guaranteed salary with a fat pension on retirement. Worth fighting for. A socialist state provides education to everyone equally. Not so in India. Data from the International Monetary Fund compares India with Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Myanmar, Nepal and Rwanda, whose economies are a fraction of that of ours. On education India spends 3.90% of GDP compared to 8.10% by Ghana. On healthcare we spend 1.30% of GDP while Rwanda spends 6.50%. Why so dismal? Because central government revenue is 20.10% of GDP while Mali raises 22% of GDP in revenues. This leads to high indirect taxes which raise prices, hitting the poor. To get votes politicians resort to large numbers of social schemes so government expenditure is 27.10% of GDP, leading to 7% shortfall in revenues, compared to spending. Naturally, government debt is 63.9% of GDP, which means high interest payments. Low oil prices have reduced subsidy on kerosene by half while increasing excise collection on oil. Weak growth in China has reduced commodity prices, which is good, but dumping of goods by China is hitting our industries. Exports have been falling for 14 months and if interest rate rises in the US the rupee may fall, increasing inflation. There is only one solution. Reduce demand by reducing population. Else, expect everyone to ask for lower caste status.

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