Monday, August 17, 2015

We need astrology to predict technology.

One Vivek Wadhwa, based in the US, writes that Indian industries have to innovate or perish. He then goes on to to list how the world has been changed by innovations in technology that have already taken place and tries to predict those that are coming. The processing power of computers has been doubling every 18 months even as Moore's law predicted doubling of capacity every 2 years. Technology is disrupting old ways of doing business. Amazon has destroyed old bookshops, Apple music has made music available to everyone and smart phones with apps, such as Uber, have cut down the cost of taxis. With 3D printing technology and robots it is cheaper to manufacture in the US and India than in China. A device the size of a book, costing Rs 35,000, has been invented in Delhi. Apparently this can perform 33 medical tests. Cost of solar energy has dropped by 98% and by 2020 energy from renewable sources, along with improved storage, will result in an abundance of energy even in the poorest villages. With unlimited energy we will have unlimited water simply by boiling sea water and with unlimited water and electricity we will have vertical farms, which will be sealed and so will not need pesticides. Even meat will be manufactured by technology so no need to slaughter animals. There will be no need to breed animals for meat so less methane will be produced, which will help in reducing global warming. Sounds as if the world will become a virtual paradise where people will relax in air conditioned comfort with cheap electricity, eat very cheap food washed down with pure water. Will it? Maybe cheap but they will still need to be paid for. Earlier Mr Wadhwa predicted that masses of people will lose their jobs as traditional businesses disappear. Robots will take over manufacturing, self-driving buses will have no need for drivers and computers with voice recognition will take over secretarial work. Hackers can take over your smart phone, listen to your conversations and pinpoint your location. Ethical hackers have already demonstrated how easy it is to take over a car. Imagine you are a driving to work in your self-driven car when it is taken over by kidnappers who demand payment in untraceable bitcoins. Perhaps Mr Wadhwa should see pictures of Hiroshima and Nagasaki to understand what devastation can be wreaked by technology. The biggest danger is that, with all this cheap food and energy, there could be an explosion in the population of human beings which will be a disaster worse than any nuclear explosion. Forests will disappear, thousands of species will become extinct and wars will increase. The humongous profits of technology companies, like Apple depend on selling millions of products. Technology will make wars more lethal. No wonder astrology is big business.

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