Monday, August 10, 2015

Is Reagan's voodoo economics the answer for India's problems?

A professor in Britain is cross with the Indian media for its sensational coverage of the government's intention of setting up a 7-member Monetary Policy Committee to decide interest rates in India. " Where is the deep discussion of whether inflation targeting makes sense for India? Or, if it does make sense, does a range of 2% to 6% make any sense?" he asks. There have been many articles in support of a MPC with former governors of the RBI weighing in with their views. Even the current governor has supported such a committee. The problem for everyone is the proposal that the MPC will have 7 members, 4 of which will be appointed by the government and the governor will lose his veto power, because no one trusts politicians or civil servants who are at the bottom of all that is rotten in India. The media was questioning as to whether the MPC would be independent. If it is going to be just another arm of the Finance Ministry why not save a lot of time and money by getting rid of the MPC, as well as the post of governor of the RBI, altogether and let a bunch of civil servants come out with a figure. After all, they control every other aspect of our lives, from sports to sex.  As for having an inflation target, what should the MPC focus on? Politicians are only motivated by hanging on to power and in their warped thinking economic growth at any cost leads to victory at elections. That is why the previous governor was pressured into keeping interest rate at 5% to 6% in 2009-2010 while inflation was raging at over 10%. " Developing countries and India are characterized by external supply-side constraints. If inflation rises above target because of a rise in drought-affected food prices, then raising interest rates will impact growth without impacting the source of inflation," writes the professor. The interest rate was raised to 8.5% in 2011 but was prematurely reduced to 7.25% in 2013. Inflation spiked again and it was raised to 8% in January, 2014 and, despite drought last year which caused high food prices, inflation has fallen to 5.4% and the RBI has cut rate to 7.25%. So high interest rate did work. In the opinion of the present governor interest rate should be 2% higher than the rate of inflation which will encourage savings and move people away from buying physical assets, such as gold. The real villain is irresponsible spending by politicians to win elections. Perhaps, instead of a MPC we should have a Fiscal Policy Committee, composed of independent economists, to control runaway spending by politicians and civil servants. Trouble is, economists are wrong too often. One economist thought that solar power will be too expensive at Rs 9 per unit. Companies are ready to sell solar power at Rs 5 per unit in Madhya Pradesh. Does it mean that India will benefit from Reagan's supply-side economics? Also known as ' voodoo economics '.

No comments: