Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Economy climbing a greasy pole?

All of us remember the math problem in school wherein a monkey managed to climb 3 feet up a greasy pole only to slip back 2 feet. Our economy seems to be doing the same. Wholesale prices have fallen by 2.36% in May after falling by 2.65% in April, which makes it seven straight months of fall. That statement is misleading because the WPI rate is a comparison with the same month last year and not with the previous month. Which means that prices are not falling continuously for 7 months but have been lower compared to last year. This could be because prices were very high last year and have cooled because of the fall in commodity prices. On the other hand, Consumer Prices rose by 5.1% in May compared to 4.87% in April. This is hard to understand. If prices of raw materials and fuel are lower compared to last year why are consumer prices still rising? Is it because greedy business fellows are making excessive profits by gouging customers or is it because this government has raised taxes, even higher than the Congress did, despite talking about being consumer friendly? Industrial production increased by 4.1% in April after falling to 2.5% in Arpil. General Electric has built a multi-modal industrial plant near Pune in Maharashtra at a cost of Rs 10 billion. Phase 2 will be ready in another 2 years. Unlike old production lines, which used to be dedicated to only one product, this plant can change products depending on demand. India needs huge improvements in roads, railways, electricity production, ports and airways. If GE can produce heavy machinery, such as locomotive engines and cranes, in India the costs will be lower, saving money for the government, as well as creating decent jobs. On the other hand, Nestle has to destroy 27,000 tonnes of Maggi noodles because of excess amounts of monosodium glutamate and lead at a cost of over Rs 3 billion. It needs 10,000 trucks and 6 cement plants to destroy such huge amounts. Contract workers will be sitting idle while Nestle sorts out its production problems. We hope cement fellows do not adulterate cement with noodle powder. That could cause a disaster in an earthquake. The Current Account Deficit has fallen to 0.2% of GDP after rising to 4.8% of GDP in 2012-13. This is probably due to the fall in the price of oil. But oil prices are rising. Petrol price has been raise by 64 paise while diesel price has been reduced by Rs 1.35. Why? If both come from crude then prices of both should rise. Apparently, international price of diesel has fallen. But we do not buy diesel, we buy crude and the world's largest refinery is at Jamnagar. Diesel is slightly more expensive than petrol in the US and Europe. We hope that the government is not trying to control retail inflation by lowering transport costs. So, is the economy poised for vigorous growth in the coming months or is its weakness being camouflaged by low commodity prices? Perhaps a neutral person will explain.

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