Saturday, June 27, 2015

Why do they dream of luxury? Why not be happy with bones?

According to research in the US the savings rate and consumption in the economy depends on the richest 10% of the population. In early 1980s the share of income of the top 10% was between 30-35% and the savings rate in the US was 11-12% of disposable income but by 2005 the earnings of the top 10% had increased to 45% and the savings rate had fallen to 2% of disposable income. That is because the wealth of the rich was rising faster than their savings so their consumption increased because of the wealth effect. These pictures on instagram, showing children of the rich enjoying summer vacations show their consumption pattern. From 1993-2013 the real income of the rich increased by $2.5 trillion compared to $1.7 trillion for the middle class while, over the same period, the real wealth of the rich increased to $30.7 trillion, triple that of the middle class at $9.8 trillion. " Much of the slowdown in consumption between 2006 and 2009 was the result of a drop in consumption by the rich," said the study." And the rich also played a key role in subsequent recovery as the rebound in their wealth encouraged a revival of consumption ( though a weak one, because income growth and wealth-income ratios remained below precrisis level )." A lot of the wealth of the rich comes from asset prices which may explain why the Federal Reserve is so hesitant to raise interest rate, so as to protect the buoyant stock market. How does all this relate to us in India? Just 928 households possess 20% of total wealth of the country. It follows that consumption by the rich is responsible for the growth of the economy while consumption among the vast majority is falling. It also explains why politicians keep on whining about lowering interest rate. They say it will increase investment by lowering borrowing costs but the real reason is to protect share and real estate prices, thereby protecting the wealth of the rich. Raghuram Rajan has warned that reducing interest rate alone will not work because other countries are doing the same so consumer demand has to increase. In the warped reasoning of politicians, since consumption is mainly dependent on the rich it is alright to keep on increasing taxes as the Delhi government did this week when it published its budget. Why can they not understand that the poor cannot fly off to the Alps in summer, as the rich and politicians do, but they also need entertainment, because they are human? So increasing taxes on TV providers, movies and gyms hurt them more. High taxes are preventing foreign airlines from investing in India so fewer jobs. Huge taxes on alcohol leads to huge corruption and the poor die, as 100 did in Mumbai recently. How to make politicians understand that the poor are not content with a few coins thrown at them. They want the same life as that of politicians.

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