Thank God we are only fifth.

Apparently the present heat wave in India is fifth in terms of mortality, having resulted in over 2,000 deaths already. Europe heads the list with 71,310 deaths in 2003, followed by Russia with 55,736 in 2010. There were so many deaths in France that bodies had to be stored in a refrigerated warehouse in Paris. The population of Europe is around 740 million and that of Russia is around 144 million, while the population of India is 1.25 billion, crammed into a much smaller space. A massive population, with unchecked growth, leads to massive poverty so any weather condition results in deaths. People are praying for a good monsoon because good rains are vital for agriculture and to fill up reservoirs to supply drinking water for the rest of the year. But rains can never be uniformly distributed. There are bound to be very heavy rains in some areas, which will lead to floods, leading to loss of life. A cold winter, with heavy snowfall in the mountains is essential to replenish our receding glaciers so that snow-melt can keep our rivers flowing in the dry months. But cold will kill people without adequate shelter. In between extremes, in the months of March or November, when the weather is neither cold nor hot, mosquitoes will cause deaths from dengue and malaria. India leads the world in the largest number of malnourished people, at 194 million, who are vulnerable to inclement conditions. Surely, the only effective solution is to bring down the number of people. Instead they are seen as ' vote bank ' to be bribed by large numbers of social schemes to win elections, so that a culture of entitlement has been created among the poor. It is hard to imagine how anyone can conceive 8 children on an open pavement in Mumbai. Perhaps the only good thing about being fifth in the list of mortality is that they cannot accuse the ' Hindu Nationalist ' government of the BJP for being a ' suit boot ki sarkar '. Natural disasters are highly lucrative for a whole host of people. Along with malnutrition India has the distinction of hosting 2 million Non Governmental Organisations, one for every 600 people, whose earnings depend on disasters and mortality, the more the better. Then there are our ever present masters, the politicians and civil servants, who salivate at the opportunity of doling out vast sums of government aid for relief, so that they can enjoy themselves doing so. The flash floods in Uttarakhand in 2013 was a bonanza for local civil servants who enjoyed Rs 1 billion of aid money while over 5,500 died. Not just in India. A 92 year old woman jumped off a bridge in Avon after being hounded by charities for contributions. If the number of deaths had been any higher leaders of political parties and many NGOs would have collected to provide relief, making millions in the process. Thankfully the rains are here. Just in time.

If it is a zero sum game should everyone go on holiday?

Indian exports slowed by 14% in April which is of concern for the Prime Minister's ' Make in India ' policy. Not much point making stuff unless you can sell it, but how can you sell when global demand is weak? US exports fell 3% in January and 1.6% in February but grew by 0.9% in March. The Federal Reserve in the US stopped its bond buying program in October of last year, although it has kept interest rate at 0%, and the dollar has appreciated against all currencies. China's exports fell 6.4% in April after falling 14.6% in March. South Korea saw fall in exports by 8.5% in April after a 10% fall in March. On the other hand Germany's exports grew by 12.4% in March, so that Germany has a huge current account surplus of 8% of GDP, while Japan's exports grew by 8% year-on-year, though the rate of growth slowed to 2.4% in February, followed by 1.8% in March. The export growth of these 2 countries can be explained by big falls in the values of their currencies. The Euro has fallen by 25% against the dollar, while the Yen is trading at 124 to the dollar, having risen to 79 to the dollar in 2012. China has cut interest rate 3 times in 6 months. Around 30 countries have cut interest rates this year, including India. India was hampered by high retail inflation but this is now under 5% so the RBI is being urged to cut interest rate further. Monetary easing makes a nation's currency weaker, which helps exports by making goods cheaper. But is this tit-for-tat devaluation a zero sum game? Prof Nouriel Roubini agrees. " The sum of all trade balances in the world is equal to zero, which means that not all countries can be net exporters - and that currency wars end up being zero sum games," he writes. " Currency frictions lead to trade frictions and currency wars can lead to trade wars." Monetary easing by so many countries coincided with the end of bond buying by the Federal Reserve, leading to a jump in the value of the dollar against all currencies. This not only hurts US exports but distorts trade for other countries. Commodity exporting countries, like Brazil, lose by getting less dollars while importing countries, like India, gain by having to pay less for imports. On the other hand companies in India have borrowed in other currencies to take advantage of low interest rates and a stronger dollar means they will have to pay more in rupees which, combined with falling profits, could cause stress. Anticipating a rise in US interest rate there was a sell off in bonds throughout the world, including in India, raising yields. Meanwhile the repeated bond buying by the Federal Reserve has created a shortage of US treasuries. If the Fed sells bonds that will reduce liquidity and raise borrowing cost, which the Fed is reluctant to do. It's a real mess. No wonder RBI Chairman, Raghuram Rajan clashed with previous Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke. Since it is a zero sum game it does not matter if you do anything or not. Would it not be better if everyone went for vacation? At least tourism will gain.

The timing was perfect but Blatter blats on.

Couple of days ago Swiss police arrested officials of FIFA, the International Federation of Football Associations, at a hotel in Zurich. They arrested 7 officials indicted by New York Justice Department after investigation by the FBI. This is the same FBI which completely missed the 9/11 conspiracy despite all the attackers taking flying lessons in the US for months. FIFA is headquartered in Zurich in Switzerland so any allegation of corruption should be tried in Swiss courts and why are Zurich Police taking orders from New York. If FIFA is corrupt so is the International Olympic Committee or IOC. Charges of bribery were brought against US officials for the Winter Olympic Games in Salt Lake City but were thrown out by a federal court. Surely, the Olympic Games in London in 2012 must be thoroughly investigated to see whether Britain bribed officials. Sarita Devi lost because of blatant cheating at Korea but no official of the AIBA was arrested. No one is denying that there is huge corruption in awarding World Cup tournaments but these arrests stink of a US/British conspiracy. Not just awarding of tournaments, even results are suspect, such as Britain winning the World Cup in 1966 and France's victory in 1998. Britain has mounted a vicious campaign against Qatar ever since it was awarded the 2022 World Cup, which the British were sure they would get ( memories of the Empire and all that ), with the propaganda channel, BBC regularly focusing on the ' wretched ' condition of immigrant workers. As if they did not know that laborers are very badly ill-treated in the middle east. They are not paid, they are tortured physically, maids are regularly raped by employers and executed if they kill in self defence, but of course the Saudis spend huge amounts buying British and US arms, so that is alright. The US and Britain want to disrupt the World Cup in Russia in 2018 because the west is losing the war in Ukraine. Trouble is that they are minnows in football, so if they were to boycott the World Cup their absence will not be noticed. The timing of the arrests was exquisite, coming just before the election for president of FIFA. The conspirators thought that they would be able to postpone the voting and mount a campaign to get rid of current president, Sepp Blatter. If they could get their own man in maybe they could reschedule the World Cups away from Russia and Qatar. No such luck. Blatter won reelection yesterday. The European associations under Uefa will meet but what is it going to do? Break away from FIFA? They already have a European Cup so how are they going to organise a World Cup without South America and Africa? Perhaps they should listen to football legend, Franz Beckenbauer who said," It's not the person but the system. It's very difficult to change the system." Because all of them gain from it.

Illogical expectations bad for the economy

The government and industrialists are very keen for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rate further. Cheaper borrowing costs will encourage new investments which will increase growth and thus create more jobs. But companies will invest more only if there is demand for their products and growth in consumer demand is at its lowest in 10 years. Even so called Fast Moving Consumer Goods, such as toothpaste and detergents, have slowed. Since people do not buy these using bank loans or credit cards it is difficult to understand how a cheaper borrowing cost is going to help. There is anxiety that there is a short window of opportunity for the RBI to reduce rates before food prices start to increase, if the monsoon is poor, and oil prices may rise later in the year as the European economy gathers steam. However, if food and energy costs do rise inflation will rise again and the RBI maybe forced to raise rates. What is the point of lowering rates only to raise them again after a few months? Mystery. The Chief Economic Adviser, Arvind Subramanian also wants a cut in interest rate because inflation is within targets set by the RBI, with retail inflation falling to 4.87% in April, well below the RBI's target of 6% by January, 2016, and wholesale prices falling by -2.65% in the same month. He is worried about interest rate cuts in China which will make its currency weaker against the rupee, making Chinese goods cheaper in dollars. That will affect export of Indian goods and hamper the Prime Minister's efforts to increase manufacturing in India. But a weaker rupee will increase the cost of imports, especially oil, and add to inflation. In setting interest rates the RBI surveys the population to judge the " inflation expectations " of the people. From March 2011 to March 2015 between 60 to 80% of people expected prices to continue to rise by more than 10% in the short term, until the December quarter of last year, when the number fell to 36%. Similarly, 70-80% of people expected long term inflation to rise by over 10% over a similar period but that number has fallen to 39%. There is no mystery in these figures. A lot of decisions are made by people on perceptions, not based on any economic calculations, or on what they are told by relatives and friends. They voted against the ruinous Congress policies of handouts, in parliamentary elections last year, but enthusiastically voted for even more suicidal policies of the Congress agents, the AAP Party, in January this year. Reducing interest rate will cut returns from term deposits paid by banks and if people feel that they are losing more from inflation than they are gaining from financial investments they will resort to buying gold. Gold imports rose by 78% to $3.1 billion in April. Even so gold smuggling increased to Rs 10 billion last year. Since only 10% is caught the total figure could be in excess of Rs 100 billion. Recently a film on constipation has raked in over Rs 1 billion. Is that a hint for the RBI to loosen up?

Poor Caesar's wife. Totally misunderstood in India.

It is not a question of whether you handled black money yourself, but of ' sharam and izzat '. They convey a mixture of shame, pride, status, self respect and prestige. If you are having to deny that you were corrupt you have certainly lost your izzat, and if you then try to justify your actions by attacking others you have no sharam. " I sincerely believe that like Caesar's wife, the Prime Minister should be above suspicion," said Dr Manmohan Singh in parliament. In that case why have you taken a stay order from the Supreme Court to avoid summons from a Special Court looking into the scam in the allocation of coal mines. Former Minister of State for Coal, DN Rao and former Coal Secretary, HC Gupta swear that, being in charge of the Coal Ministry, you were fully informed of all allocations and that the final decisions rested with you. Whether you benefited financially from the scam is moot, but what is not in doubt is that you should stand tall and take responsibility. " It is not enough for the Prime Minister to say he is clean. It is his duty to ensure that his government is also corruption free," said Mr Amit Shah. Precisely. Caesar's wife, once more. Former Chairman of Trai, Pradip Baijal alleges that he was threatened by the CBI to cooperate with the 2G scam and asked to implicate former minister, Arun Shourie and industrialist, Ratan Tata. Baijal writes in his book that Singh asked him to cooperate with the minister. What is Manmohan Singh's response? " I can say in all humility that I have not used my public office to enrich myself, my family or to enrich my friends," he said. Oh yes, you did. Your reward was 10 full years as Prime Minister, living in great splendor, traveling all over at our expense and now living in an official bungalow, with full security, paid for by the taxpayer. As for your family, you took your son in law and grand children along with you and they were definitely not checked by Customs officers on return, so we do not know. But, even if we forgive you for the crimes of your cabinet we cannot forgive the rape of the economy while you were in charge. " I was totally amazed at the non-economist attitude of an economist prime minister and also of his harmful political attitude towards the economy," writes Baijal. Devastating indictment. You were ready to compromise your education, your greatest asset, to suck up to vested interests so that you could hang on to your chair. How can you even dare to say," If you look at the harsh realities, you will find all is not well with the state of the economy under the BJP dispensation." Either you think that every Indian is stupid and does not understand the enormous harm you did to the nation or you do not understand that being blind to the crimes of others makes you an accessory. It is not jurisprudence, it is what mothers teach. Poor Caesar's wife. So misunderstood.

Without the heat wave there will be no monsoon.

The monsoon rains in India are pretty predictable year on year, although El Nino effects seem to have become more exaggerated recently. There is a heat wave starting in late April, especially in the northern plains. Temperatures rise to over 40 degrees Celsius and stay at around 45. Last year it reached 48 degrees in Delhi. At this time it is very dry, and in previous years milk sweets used to be banned in summer months, as cows produced less milk due to dehydration. This heat wave is essential because hot air rises and creates low pressure over India, drawing moisture laden winds from the Arabian Sea. The monsoon reaches Kerala on 1 June, rising towards the north until it reaches Mumbai. It then swings round into the Bay of Bengal and gradually covers the whole country from the east, reaching the northwest around 15 July. Schools shut down in Delhi around the third week in May and do not open till the second week of July at which time it is starting to get cloudy and the heat is less intense although it is very muggy because of the increased humidity. This year the heat wave is reported to have killed over 1000 people already, most of them in Andhra. That is the sad reality of India. We need rains to grow food but, if it rains heavily, people will die in floods and if the winter is very cold pavement dwellers will die of the cold. It is a reality we live with everyday. It is not possible to sit at home doing nothing. People have to go out to work which exposes them to the elements. We need air conditioning in every house which needs cheap abundant electricity supplies. But, higher use of fossil fuels will add to global warming. The answer is solar energy. But the experience of Hawaii has shown that it causes problems for the grid due to its erratic nature. Instead of supplying energy to the grid solar energy could be used to run individual air conditioners in homes. Solar panels on roofs and walls, facing east and west, will keep them cool by cutting out direct sunlight. India is probably the only country still using old solid bricks while the rest of the world has moved on to hollow bricks. Hollow bricks increase insulation and cut the cost of air conditioning. To combat heat people need to drink copious amounts of water but we face serious water scarcity by 2020. Finally, everyone should be travelling in cars with air conditioning but, with narrow roads full of potholes, it will result in complete gridlock. The only answer is to bring down the population to sustainable levels. This will be opposed by all those who grow rich from poverty, such as NGOs, civil servants in charge of social programs and politicians who win elections by promising handouts. They love the poor so much that they want more of them and hate a ' suit boot ki sarkar ' which wants to create wealth. If we do not reduce population mother nature will do it for us. The earthquake in Nepal was a warning. 

Look who is talking.

US Secretary of Defense, Ashton B Carter thinks that Iraqi forces " lack the will to fight " after they fled in panic from Ramadi, capital of Anbar provice in Iraq, even though they outnumbered Islamic State, or IS, by 10 to 1. The reason for the panic is simple: they did not trust the Americans to provide air cover and the IS does not believe in the Geneva Conventions and will brutally murder any soldier they capture. Jeb Bush, Governor of Florida and brother of former president George W Bush, was recently confronted by a student, Ivy Ziedrich who accused his brother for the creation of IS. " Look, we can rewrite history all you want. But the simple fact is that we are in a much more unstable place because America pulled back," he replied. He was blaming Obama's exit from Iraq for all the problems. For us on the outside it does not matter whether Bush was responsible or Obama, we hold the US responsible. The IS has money to buy weapons, plus what it loots from government armories when it captures territory. The IS cannot be defeated unless it is wiped out in Syria, where it is based. Since terrorists do not wear colored jerseys to distinguish themselves all terrorists have to be hit. But this will hand victory to Bashar al Assad, which the US does not want. It wants to support good terrorists against Assad while helping Iraq battle the bad terrorists, like its stupid policy of good Taliban vs bad. Iraq wants the US to supply modern weapons to its army but, with oil prices falling, probably does not have the money to pay. Isn't it strange that Obama has no problem supplying billions of dollars worth of modern weapons to Pakistan to kill Indians but will not supply the same to Iraq to fight a scourge that the US created?  The present Iraqi army is made up of new recruits who may have joined just to get a job, with unemployment at over 25%, while the IS is being advised by former Iraqi army and intelligence officers. Where have these fellows come from? Turns out that top officers of the elite Republican Guard were bribed to betray Saddam Hussein so that US troops captured Baghdad without a fight. Some of those fellows are having their revenge. If Iraq is a mess then Libya is an anarchy, said former interim Prime Minster, Mahmoud Jibril. This was because Gaddafi was killed by Nato bombing, under the pretense of protecting civilians. If it is a matter of running away then no one does it better than the US, as their marines showed when hanging from helicopter skids, to escape from Saigon as the Viet Cong advanced. The US won World War II by using nuclear weapons and unlimited savagery, it was a draw in Korea and after that it was a rout in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, despite using napalm, dioxin, depleted uranium, drones and white phosphorus. They have run from Libya, which they liberated, and from Yemen where they were fighting the Al Qaeda. Trained by Americans the Iraqis are naturally very good at running. Well trained, what?

We are forced write our own story.

As the BJP government completes one year in office there is a deluge of articles trying to assess what it has accomplished and advice on what to do next. It seems simple: to reduce poverty we need to create jobs and jobs will come from increased manufacturing, so we must increase our manufacturing base. But the old ways will not do. We have to improve our productivity, as China did with great success, because labor intensive small firms are inefficient and of poor quality. Productivity is measured by value added per hour of work and in manufacturing value addition in India is 5.33, in China it is 9.78, in Brazil it is 13.23, in Mexico it is 15.99, in Turkey it is 21.37, while in Indonesia it is 27.72. So what example should we follow? Should we follow the Chinese path or that of Mexico? China's manufacturing growth is based on massive government spending on infrastructure built on forcible occupation of land compared to India where the Congress is determined to stop any amendment to the Land Acquisition Act, passed by the Congress just before elections last year to stop the BJP government from improving our economy. Even more contentious was China's one-child policy which prevented 400 million births, improved maternal and child health, reduced demand on agriculture and the education system and released vast numbers of women from housework, thus allowing both partners to work, which increased income. There are predictions that India's growth rate will be higher than that of China but a growth rate of 10% of a $2 trillion economy adds only $200 billion while a growth rate of 6% of a $10 trillion economy adds $600 billion, 3 times as much. We do not want to be like China so should we be like Mexico? Mexico shares a long border with the US and is a part of the North American Free Trade Agreement, so it should be sharing in US prosperity. Since becoming part of NAFTA Mexico's growth rate has averaged 2.4% per year and per capita income has grown by an average of 1.14% per year. The result has been an explosion of drug gangs and violent killings with guns smuggled in from the US. So, Mexico is out. What about Turkey? Turkey's economy is in trouble with the lira falling against the dollar. President Erdogan is totally corrupt and, as is common with such people, wants to hang on to power to protect his even worse family. He is destroying the economy just to stay in power. What about Brazil? With vast size, abundant natural resources and lots of tourist attractions surely Brazil is a role model. Sadly, the fall in commodity prices, rise in the dollar and slower growth in China has hit Brazil very hard. Brazil's oil company, Petrobras has written off $17 billion in assets due to corruption and the interest rate has been raised to 12.75% to curb inflation. Sadly, no one to follow, it's a lonely world.

So much abuse means Mr Modi must be doing something right.

According to an article in China's official mouthpiece, Xinhua if China had democracy it would be like India. India has 20% of the world's poorest, our GDP is a quarter of that of China, we are involved in a " self perpetuating cycle of limitless debates " and there is " lobbying among interested groups ". All that is correct but things are changing. 80% of Indians think that our businesses are corrupt. They are not wrong. Most of our business fellows learnt their trade in the days of the license-permit system devised by the Congress in which fellows would pay politicians and civil servants to get control of resources or monopoly licenses so that they could make easy money by giving us shoddy goods and services. 66% of these fellows believe that paying bribes to get work done is acceptable. Fellows could just walk into offices of Chief Secretaries and ministers with no permission required. No longer. Mr Modi has stopped business fellows coming into ministry offices, leading to complaints of " neglect " and " lack of access ". One fellow said," Most big industrial groups are used to fixing things, which is not happening in this government." Documents regarding auctions of resources and trade policies were blatantly copied in ministry offices and handed over to business fellows in restaurants and trains, in the best traditions of a John le Carre novel. When money could be made so easily there was no need for research or innovation as we see in the Apples and Googles of the world. Even our much touted IT industry are glorified coolies of the business and not in the big league. Resources, such as telecom spectrum, are now given out in transparent auctions. Direct subsidies to consumers has stopped gas cylinders, meant for domestic use, from being diverted to restaurants and hotels. The black money law must be hurting badly so that some MPs actually lobbied for diluting the bill, arguing that it would cut demand and have an adverse effect on jobs. Apparently, some of these crooks have already left India to protect their black money. Good riddance. They should beware of international thugs, from Russian gangsters to Dawood Ibrahim, who may want a piece of the action. Naturally, all this has led to enormous anger among those who considered it their birthright to make massive amounts of money from corruption, with complete impunity. Black money acts as a stimulus to the economy although, since it cannot be controlled, it leads to inflation and income inequality in the long run. So cutting off the supply of black money has resulted in fall of consumer demand to 10 year lows. Curiously Mr Modi has been accused of being friendly to the rich and against the poor. Unfortunately for the liars consumer confidence is still the highest in the world. Growth will come as honest businesses thrive, inflation will remain under control as black money is reduced and the poor will benefit as their money is not stolen. Till then Mr Modi will have to take a lot of abuse. As Abraham Lincoln did.

Why go to Las Vegas, lose a lot more on the markets.

Baron Alexandre Lamfalussy, who died on 9 May, is described as the ' Father of Euro '. He was deeply sceptical of the viability of a monetary union of disparate economies without fiscal and political union. " The prerequisite to a successful pooling of reserves is the effective co-ordination of economic policies," he wrote. What he meant was that a single currency with a single interest rate across 19 countries is not likely to succeed if national governments are free set their own spending targets and tax rates. Government policies depend on the political party in power. Conservatives believe tight government spending with low taxes lead to higher consumer demand which leads to greater investment, creating more jobs and increasing wealth. Socialists believe in greater government spending, financed by high taxes on the rich, leads to more cash in the hands of the poor which leads to greater consumer spending, thus leading to greater investment and growth. A common currency meant that Greece was able to go on a spending spree, fueled by low interest rates and cheap imports, while Germany ran surplus budgets because a single currency kept its exports relatively cheap. The bond buying program by the European Central Bank has helped Germany but not Greece. Purchase of German bonds increased their price to such levels that yields dropped to negative so that the government was being paid by investors for borrowing money. As the Euro fell the dollar rose. This meant that countries which depended on exports of commodities saw a fall in prices, and hence earnings, while exporting countries like Japan benefited by being able to buy oil cheaply while a weaker yen made their goods cheaper, increasing sales. India benefited from a cheaper oil but  companies which have borrowed overseas will have to repay more in rupees causing financial stress. It could not last and it didn't. There was a sudden sell off in bonds across the world. Yields on German bunds rose by as much as 0.5%, commodity prices rose and the Euro rose against the dollar. Those who were borrowing in Euros at zero interest rate to invest in other currencies, where interest rates are higher, secure in the knowledge that they would not only earn more from arbitrage but also from further weakening of the Euro, suffered heavy losses. Meanwhile, in the US the purchase of treasuries by the Federal Reserve has left a $900 billion shortage of bonds. Greater demand for bonds suppresses yields and if the Fed starts large scale sale of bonds it will reduce liquidity and cause a rise in interest rate when economic figures are still weak. Wall Street is naturally puzzled as to what to do. Globalisation has shifted power to markets. Central banks are terrified of brokers. There can be only one outcome of this high stakes gambling - a collective meltdown.

To serve we need to have ownership.

An editorial in a newspaper admonishes against " The growing vigilantism of Indians." Recently there has been a spate of ordinary people attacking police or security officers as when a woman in Agra jumped on top of a politician's Mercedes when one of his security fellows winked at her. " While loudly proclaiming our democratic credentials, as proven by the rising voter turnout in various elections, we seem to have forgotten the duties that should go hand in hand with our rights," lectures the article. Trouble is that our journalists are used to writing sermons while seated in their air conditioned offices, so they have little understanding of how people think. Veteran journalist, Prannoy Roy had this to say recently," Indian media today lives and thrives in what I call a ' punishment-free ' environment. We can say what we like, defame whoever we like, make false accusations against whoever we like - and nothing happens to us." There is such an immense but suppressed public anger against civil servants, politicians and their children that Mr Modi can boast of being a bachelor with no children to leave black money to. With everyone owning cellphones with cameras instances of police brutality can be seen instantly online. The reason why a woman reacted violently to a policeman's demand for her original license and registration was because she knows the harassment she will have to face to get them back from the magistrate's court. People should be told to show their documents at their local police station where they can be scanned and sent to the traffic police. It will not cost anything and will enforce compliance even for vehicles from other states. Paying a bribe to a civil servant is punishable but a politician is set free if her disproportionate income is less than 10% of her total fortune. So, paying a bribe of Rs 1000 to get a water connection could land you in prison but if a politician has amassed Rs 100 billion then unaccounted wealth of up to Rs 10 billion is fine. Doctors are not allowed to take any gift from pharma companies but it is fine for civil servants to accept gifts of up to Rs 25,000, for anything more they have to take permission. To protect the crooks further the government intends to amend the Whistleblower Act so that no one will be allowed to disclose information protected under the Official Secrets Act. Only information available under the Right to Information Act maybe used. Who decides what is secret and what is not? Politicians and civil servants, of course. It is the good old Catch 22, with Indian characteristics. But, to make absolutely sure, that pesky citizens do not use RTI to ferret out the truth, the government has not appointed a Chief Information Commissioner in one year. With this ' us-versus-them ' mentality it is not vigilantism that we should be worrying about but armed insurrection. Duty is service. It comes with ownership. If we feel that the state is against us we cannot serve.

A nuclear war in the middle east will be Obama's fault.

Does he want to destroy the world? Obama has quietly signed a deal to transfer nuclear technology to China which will allow it to build quieter nuclear submarines. China will transfer this technology to Pakistan to hurt India, which it has been doing blatantly for decades, while continuing to lie about it. At the same time the US is supplying sophisticated arms to Pakistan including, 500 air to air missiles, 14,500 2,000 pound bombs, 1,600 kits to convert ordinary bombs to laser-guided missiles, 2,007 anti-armor missiles, 7 naval guns and 374 armored personnel carriers among others. Since the Taliban has neither airplanes nor warships these are clearly to be used against India. Meanwhile, the FBI has accused Chinese academics of spying for the mainland while studying in the US. Stealing trade and industrial secrets from the US is official Chinese government policy. There is a cyber espionage center outside Shanghai which has been hacking into computers of American companies for years. When the Chinese President, Xi Jinping was on a state visit to the US people in his retinue were busy stealing secrets of hybrid corn. When a Chinese student sent offensive emails to teachers of his school, New York Police baboons tortured Krittika Biswas for 48 hours. The Chinese was not touched. Everyone knows that Pakistan is the epicenter of global terror and also proudly heads the list of countries in watching pornography. However, Obama is not only anti-Indian he is anti-Israeli as well. Last year he threatened to shoot down Israeli jets if they attempted to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. The result of his chest thumping is that Saudi Arabia is quietly acquiring nuclear weapons from Pakistan. Once friends of the US the Gulf monarchies are not happy with Obama's embrace of Iran while lecturing the Arabs on democracy, as though Neda Agha was not shot to death by the Basij militia to stop protests against Ahmadinejad stealing elections in 2009. Former Saudi Intelligence Chief, Prince Turki bin Faisal has already said," Whatever the Iranians have, we will have, too." Saudi Arabia is known to have financed Pakistan's nuclear weapons program and Pakistan will dare not refuse demands for weapons from Saudi because its economy is dependent on aid from the kingdom. The Arab states are not happy with increasing Iranian influence in Iraq as its government is relying almost completely on Shia militia, supported by Iran, to protect Baghdad from the Islamic State after the fall of Ramadi. The Arabs have been buying billions of dollars of arms from the US so they are prepared. Israel and the Arabs will never tolerate a nuclear Iran so we should be prepared for a war, even a nuclear one, in the middle east. The resultant slaughter will be the fault of the gasbag. Will he stand trial for it?

Human behavior cannot be controlled by economic equations.

Perhaps having a great deal of knowledge gives you tunnel vision. Economists seem to come out with daft ideas from time to time. One such idea being discussed is to get rid of cash completely. Like all silly ideas it seems extremely logical. Paper currencies cost a lot of money to print and replace. True, but apparently central banks make a profit out of printing cash, called seigniorage revenue, which is then turned over to government treasuries. So, are fellows lying when they complain that it costs $3.5 billion a year because of the preference for cash transactions in India? The cash to GDP ratio is 12% for India compared to 3.93% for Brazil, 5.3% for Mexico and 3.73% for South Africa. The difference seems huge but not when you compare the respective populations of the countries. The population of Brazil is around 203 million, South Africa 54 million while that of Mexico is around 120 million, whereas India's population is a massive 1250 million, 6 times that of Brazil. Long lines at supermarket tills are because of time wasted in counting cash. Surely, it takes more time for a debit card to be swiped and for the customer to key in her pin number? Cash is anonymous so criminals use vast amounts. Electronic transactions are easier to trace so crime would be reduced. If cash is abolished there will be enormous demand for virtual currencies, such as bitcoins, and criminals will probably devise their own currency. It is worth noting that the cash to GDP ratio for Mexico is less than half that of India even though Mexican drug gangs generate over $15 billion annually. Maybe, the real anger of central banks is because they cannot reduce interest rates to below zero, as Switzerland has done. If they have to pay to keep money in banks people will simply withdraw cash and keep it at home. Banks will then have less money to lend for investments. But as usual economists discount human ingenuity. People could buy gold, as they are fond of doing in India, where import of gold rose by 78% to $3.1 billion in April. Or people could buy other commodities sparking a boom in commodity prices and leading to inflation. Low interest rate is of enormous help to the wealthy who can increase their assets, especially properties. Asset prices, such as real estate and stocks, have risen by 19% last year in Britain but inflation rate has gone into negative for the first time since 1960. It maybe good if it is due to falling fuel and food prices but not if it is due to falling consumer demand. Speaking in New York yesterday RBI Governor, Raghuram Rajan was scathing about " competitive monetary easing " and said that growth could come only from increased consumer spending. Consumer can only spend if they have money, which will come through low inflation, low taxes and job security. If the ease of cash is taken away they may stop spending altogether.

Bad news is good news.

So, Aruna Shanbaug has died after being in a vegetative state for 42 years. But not before assorted ghouls made money from her agony by writing books, shouting their opinions on television channels and even a court case to end her life through euthanasia. Fortunately, the Supreme Court turned down the plea to kill her in 2011 but the same people are boasting today of their victory in getting the Supreme Court to agree that passive euthanasia is permissible. How did these people arrive at the conclusion that Ms Shanbaug would be better off dead? Does writing a book make a person an expert on how pain is felt, how it can be managed and which life is to be written off? Would they dare to apply for euthanasia on a politician with Alzheimer's disease or with severe head injuries, leaving him in a " minimally conscious state ". Ms Shanbaug was fair game. Her family was poor, she was a nurse at her hospital and the case was sensational. Through it all the nurses at the hospital showed unbelievable dignity, caring and love for one of their own, nursing her for 42 years, for no extra money. That the rapist was out in 6 years to continue to enjoy life is but another example of how our judicial system is always so affectionate towards criminals and totally indifferent towards victims. Rape is not restricted to India as the howling media would have us believe. With a population of 1.25 billion even a low rate can mean many such cases in actual numbers. Even one rape is unacceptable and the rapist should be put away for a long time. There should be a sex offenders register available online and violent rapists should be offered chemical castration as a condition for release. Convicted rapists should have to register their residence at the local police station and report to the station every week or so. However, instead of a calm reasoned discussion on how to prevent the crime there is a hysterical overreaction, led by the media, keen to increase their ratings. This allows white skinned hypocrites to make hectoring documentaries when children in their own countries are being arrested for rape. You do not see them making such documentaries about how one in six British people, both women and men, have been sexually assaulted during their lives and there has been a rise of 32% in sex crimes in 10 years in the UK. Finally, passive euthanasia is already rampant in India. It is called poverty. Treatment of cancer, end stage renal disease and neurological diseases is so expensive that only the wealthy and those financed by the taxpayer, politicians and civil servants, can afford it. The rest choose to die. With property prices at US levels active euthanasia could result in a blood bath as children seek to get rid of aged parents who own real estate. In Holland where the right to die became law in 2002 even mental patients and children are now being terminated by doctors. If you stand to inherit property worth Rs 100 million you could easily slip Rs 10 million to a doctor. It needs rational discussion not emotional busybodies.

Democracy and liberalism: are they antithetical?

A professor from the ivy league university of Princeton, in the US, is puzzled that although 60% of governments in the world are elected the majority are not liberal. Illiberal policies are targeted against minorities belonging to ethnic, religious, linguistic or regional groups. Liberalism depends on property rights, political rights and civil rights. Property is owned by the elite who can use their wealth to safeguard their rights by paying for their friends to get elected. The economic recovery in the US has been cornered by the top 1%. So do they count as a minority, which should be protected, or should they be reviled as Occupy Wall Street seeks to do? A Jewish journalist, wearing the traditional Jewish skull cap, was abused, spat at and threatened with death by Muslims on the streets of Paris. Both communities qualify as minorities, so which side will the liberals take? " Political rights are of interest primarily to the organized masses - the working class or ethnic majority, depending on the structure and cleavages in society," writes the professor. The process of democracy depends on majority rule, whether in the first-past-the-post system, electoral college system or by proportional representation, so politicians will naturally promise whatever will get them elected. No liberal will want any system of government other than democracy, so it is illogical to portray ' majoritarianism ' as a kind of crime when political power depends on the majority. In developing countries the poor form the majority so politicians promise redistribution of wealth to get elected but economists will tell you that first you have to create wealth to distribute it. Hugo Chavez won 3 terms by redistributing the oil wealth of Venezuela. The result has been catastrophic, as inflation and the falling value of the Bolivar have resulted in a lack of essential goods, harming the very poor it was supposed to protect. The Congress won 2 terms by spending trillions on social schemes which resulted in soaring deficit, double digit inflation and falling growth rate. On the other hand you cannot redistribute wealth to the rich so it is in the interest of politicians to keep people poor so that they can be bought with handouts and, since the poor have no bargaining power, it helps the rich who get cheap labor for their projects. In developing countries at least liberals increase poverty and the power of the rich. For liberals proportionality in law means loving care of criminals in the hope that they will reform. They cannot understand that every time the mothers of Jessica Lall and Nitish Katara see their killers out on parole enjoying themselves they go through the pain of losing their children all over again. Michael Dukakis lost a presidential election because Willie Horton, who was out on furlough, raped and killed again. Economists have understood that humans are illogical. Liberals should understand that we are herd animals and prefer to live with our kind. That is not likely to change.

The foundation takes time. The building will be faster.

One year back Narendra Modi, then Chief Minister of Gujarat, was elected Prime Minister with absolute majority in the Lok Sabha, securing 281 seats. Depending on who you ask, he has made many changes which, although small, will cause accelerating economic growth in the coming years while others think that he has achieved almost nothing, mocking his campaign rhetoric of a 56 inch chest. Curiously, they rejoice in the opposition blocking his bills in the Rajya Sabha, where Modi does not have a majority, not seeming to notice that the opposition's actions are cynical, narrow minded and damaging to the nation. That the BJP indulged in the same blocking tricks while in opposition is no excuse and reinforces our belief that all politicians in India are selfish, dishonorable crooks, seeking election to enrich themselves and their nasty brood. Modi's greatest achievement maybe that he has cut down on the rampant corruption that marked the 10 years of Congress rule. That was perhaps the easy part. It is comparatively simple to supervise the auctions of telecom spectrum and coal mines, making them transparent to scrutiny from journalists, but to improve the quality of our lives he has to eradicate the expectation of chai-pani from millions of minor officials, their sense of entitlement and their disinterest in their work, as though serving citizens is an affront to their exalted status as government officials. For us, as Indian it is most shameful that our country is perhaps the dirtiest in the world. There seems to be a collective blindness in our politicians, civil servants and business fellows. No one notices or cares that every street has piles of dirt. There are boulders strewn around at random. Roads are regularly dug up and filled up with earth. When building a flyover or the Metro roads are not repaired once a phase of work is completed, probably to save money. Everywhere you go there is a sense of chaos, with no order. Computers do not work in banks or post offices. " The system is down," we are told gleefully while fellows sit around drinking tea. Shopkeepers never seem to have any coins so customers lose out on every transaction. One rupee may not seem much but with billions of transactions taking place everyday all over the country we must be losing hundreds of billions every year. The Congress is agitating about the poor. Rahul Gandhi has suddenly discovered a cause - farmers. It does not bother Mr Gandhi that farmer suicides are less common than in housewives. No one is asking why farmers are so poor 67 years after independence, of which the Congress was in power for 54 years and, except for Mr Vajpayee and Mr Modi, all non-Congress Prime Ministers started life in the Congress but left it for personal gain. Perhaps Mr Gandhi is not being cynical, perhaps he just does not have a clue. Modi has a long way to go because the whole country is in a shambles. Happy birday, as they say in Delhi.

Toss a coin for monetary policy?

Are central banks founts of wisdom, as people perceive them to be, or do they try to apply band-aid to damage inflicted by events not under their control? To cope with the dotcom crisis of 2000 the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates to below 2% which led to the subprime crisis of 2007-08, since when the rate has been kept at 0.25%. The Fed also resorted to a program of purchasing treasuries and mortgage backed securities to inject massive amounts of liquidity into banks in, what was known as, Quantitative Easing. The US economy has improved, unemployment has come down to 5.4% and consumer spending has increased to $11.173 trillion in the first quarter of this year, although not by as much as experts had hoped for. The Fed stopped its bond buying program last year and the dollar has been rising since. The rise of the dollar was good for exporting economies, such as China, but bad for countries which export commodities, such as Brazil. For India a strong dollar means a rise in the cost of imports in rupees, which partially cancels the benefits from a fall in the global price of oil. Experts were predicting a continued rise in the dollar because apparently there are outstanding debts of about $9 trillion which need to be paid back, thus increasing demand and driving up its value. And then the dollar fell, leaving all the experts surprised. Global investors bought into gold Exchange Traded Funds as dollar fell. With financial sanctions on Russia over Ukraine and the falling price of oil the ruble tumbled, Russians were buying dollars in panic and western newspapers were crowing about the imminent fall of President Putin. The ruble fell to 68 to the dollar in December and experts were predicting that it will fall further but instead it is trading at 49.5 to the dollar today, completely confounding them. With markets consistently surprising experts what is our Reserve Bank to do? Should it look purely at national figures of growth, inflation, government spending and various deficits or should it try to anticipate what will happen globally in trying to set its rates policy? To some extent its hand maybe forced. There has been a bond sell off recently, increasing yields on US and German bonds by as much as 50 basis points in anticipation of rising interest rates in the US and the Eurozone. Experts seem to be having great fun trying to predict what will happen if and when central banks in the US, Europe and Japan start tightening monetary policy. Along with the global sell off in bonds there has been a sell off in India as well, raising yields to 8%. Rising yields raise the cost of government borrowing and increased repatriation of dollars will put downward pressure on the rupee. It seems to be guesswork, so just toss a coin?

A Brahmastra called GST.

The Consumer Price Index fell to 4.87% in April from 5.25% in March, which is well within the RBI target of getting it down to 6% by January, 2016, while the Index of Industrial Production fell from 4.8% in February to 2.1% in March. The Wholesale Price Index has fallen for the second straight month. It was -2.65% in April from -2.1% in March. Food inflation has fallen from 6.31% in March to 5.73% in April. Prices are falling in manufactured goods due to low commodity prices, which is good, and due to low demand, which is bad. In response to a question on interest rate the Finance Minister hinted that a cut would be highly desirable, saying," I expect what every Indian expects." A low interest rate will, it is hoped, stimulate demand, by encouraging consumer spending on credit, as well as make it less expensive for companies to start new projects. Since the government is the largest borrower by far, lower interest rates help the government reduce its bills. Most crucially, it will allow public sector banks to restructure bad loans by issuing new loans at lower interest rates which companies can pay. Bad loans have risen to Rs 1.81 trillion by the end of March but the RBI warned that they have not reached their peak as yet. Unless banks are able to clean up their books they will be unable to lend, especially for infrastructure projects, vital for the economy, which have very long gestation periods. These are very valid reasons for a genuine cut in the interest rate, not by a namby-pamby 25 basis points, but by a hefty 50-100 basis points. But, as with everything in life, there are problems. Inflation is soft for now but food prices may rise as unseasonal rains damaged crops in the north and El Nino may affect this year's monsoon, how severely, remains to be seen. After falling for a few months fuel prices are on the rise again which will feed into retail inflation after a lag. The RBI has signaled that it wants to keep interest rate 150-200 basis points higher than the rate of retail inflation so that people save money in banks rather than buy gold as a hedge against loss of income. Gold import has increased by 15%,  to 192 tonnes, in the first quarter to March while gold jewelry import has risen 22% to 150.8 tonnes. With ample foreign currency reserves and soft commodity prices the government is able to handle it for now but if commodity prices start to rise it could be a problem. Foreign investors are selling Indian stocks and bonds. As FIIs buy dollars to repatriate money back to their home countries the rupee falls. A weak rupee will make imports, especially oil, more expensive and increase prices. With weak demand low interest rate may not increase investments but create asset price bubbles, as in real estate. Perhaps the problem is elsewhere. Our taxes are too high, killing demand. The government must do anything to pass the GST bill. That will be the game changer. Or Brahmastra, as we call it.

A superpower without any friends: is it possible?

Even as our Prime Minister, Modi has started his visit to China he would have been reminded that the Chinese are two-faced, untrustworthy and hostile by an article in the official Chinese daily, the Global Times. This article accuses Modi of " playing little tricks " against China to boost his own image. " Due to the Indian elites' blind arrogance and confidence in their democracy, and the inferiority of its ordinary people, very few Indians are able to treat Sino-Indian relations accurately, objectively and rationally," the article says. If the author is looking for differences between Indians and Chinese he should look at the differences between Modi and Chinese politicians. Modi is sure to have a few grey hairs on his head while all Chinese politicians have jet black hair because they want to look uniformly similar. Modi is a vegetarian while the Chinese eat anything that moves, as shown in pictures of their animal markets. Their medicine is even worse. Powdered rhino horns and soup of fetuses of pangolins, which are anteaters, are used as aphrodisiacs while private parts of tigers are supposed to increase the size of manhood. Many animals are close to becoming extinct because of their voracious appetites. However, last year the same newspaper called Australia a country " roamed by rascals and outlaws from Europe ". While India has given the world yoga, Buddhism and Gandhi China exhibits an army of terracotta warriors and a Great Wall to hide behind. Satellite images show how China has built artificial islands in the South China Sea, threatening all the countries bordering the Sea. The US is thinking of increasing its military presence in the area, leading to a danger of conflict. The Communist Party is controlled by princelings who are children of the founders of the Party and grew up during the Cultural Revolution of Chairman Mao. They are extremely wealthy and their offspring study abroad, as did the daughter of Xi Jinping. Where there are winners there must be losers, as shown by the spectacular fall of Bo Xilai. Factions within the Party makes it impossible for the leaders to deviate from a set script. That is why China has no friends. The US can lean on Europe, the UK and Australia for support. NATO consists of 28 countries, although some have joined out of hatred of the Soviet Union. Even with so much support the US lost in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. China's friends are the failed states of Pakistan, North Korea and Zimbabwe. India cannot match China in wealth or military power but we can adopt the tactics of a ' thousand cuts ' of Pakistan against India, namely better trade and defence relations with all the countries hostile to China. The global economy is extremely volatile and there is every chance of a serious effect on China's economy. If that happens it will have no one to turn to. We have every reason to be arrogant.

Only the crooks are insured.

Seems that most people allow their life insurance policies to lapse, losing all the money they have paid as premiums. In the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, countries 90% of people are still insured after 1 year and 60-65% after 5 years, whereas in India the industry average is 58% after 1 year, LIC holding onto 59%, and after 5 years only 28% were still insured, with the LIC holding onto 44%. How much do investors lose on these products? Apparently there is no clear answer because the industry does not want to its shady practices coming to light but a couple of years back it was estimated that investors lost Rs 1.5 trillion in one of these schemes. People buy schemes linked to life insurance to reduce their tax burden because you start paying income tax on earnings above Rs 250,000, which is around $4000, per year. People are enticed by agents with promises of doubling their money in 5 years without being told of the heavy costs upfront which reduce their investments to almost nothing. Our previous Finance Minister said," In my view, the reason why insurance is stumbling in India is because of mis-selling of products and complex products." Absolutely spot on but what are you going to do about it? Turns out, not much. Why, surely it is the duty of the government to protect people from being cheated? Because the government uses our money to finance its deficit. The big daddy of the insurance sector in India is the Life Insurance Corporation, which being controlled by the government, allows it to raid its coffers at will, as when the LIC spent Rs 120 billion to buy ONGC shares that the same Finance Minister was selling to balance his books. In 2011-12 life insurance companies bought Rs 4.68 trillion of government securities, which was 91% of its fiscal deficit, while in 2012-13 the amount was Rs 5.12 trillion, which was 100% of the fiscal deficit. Then there are the scam artists who phone people, claiming to be from the insurance regulator, the IRDA, and make them terminate their old policies to start new ones, losing all the money in the old one. It is easy to protect customers. Clearly show the insurance and investment amounts separately because the money paid for insurance is not refundable. Print commissions in bold letters alongside each product and clearly mention penalties for early redemption. Politicians will not do it and we have no power. Pressing a button on a voting machine every 5 years is useless because the mass of people are easily bribed to vote for  handouts, as the victory of the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi showed. So middle class people have opted out of the nation, choosing their own solutions and allowing the politicians to loot. Without rule of law we have no insurance. Only the crooks are insured.

A friend of Pakistan, an enemy of India and a lying villain.

Did Barack Obama lie about the killing of Osama bin Laden on 2 May, 2011, as Seymour Hersh, a Pulitzer winning journalist has claimed in a book? He certainly had the motive. In 2008 people voted for him because it was politically correct to do so, even though no one had heard of him. He was up for reelection in 2012 and the death of bin Laden was a huge boost for him. Predictably, the White House has rejected the book by Hersh, saying that it was factually incorrect. Critics have pointed out that Hersh has quoted unreliable sources and his account is completely different from the account given by Navy Seals who carried out the attack. Pakistan's Army Chief, Ashafaq Kayani and ISI Chief, Shuja Pasha expressed surprise in phone calls, being monitored by US officials, although it is hard to believe that they would not speak on a secure line, and Saudi Arabia would hardly pay for the upkeep of the man who wanted to bring down the royal family. On the other hand, Hafiz Saeed, an anti-Indian terrorist, protected by the ISI, has claimed that Pasha definitely knew that bin Laden was hiding in that house. It is hard to imagine that the Pakistani army would not investigate a person living behind high walls in a garrison town like Abbottabad. US helicopters flew from Afghanistan and back without being challenged, when the sound of helicopters and explosions were on Twitter within seconds. Bin Laden was frail old man, living on an overdose of aphrodisiacs to satisfy his wives, especially the youngest one, Amal. Why was he not taken out alive? A trial in the US would have lasted for months and would have absolutely ensured that no one dared to challenge Obama. Unless the US had a pact with the Pakistanis to kill him so that he would not disclose that it was the ISI which had planned and financed the 9/11 attacks. Obama has certainly lied on other matters. The team brought back 10 hard drives, about 100 thumb drives and a dozen cellphones from bin Laden's house but their contents have been kept secret from the US public. Even the intelligence agencies have been given selected documents so that Obama could claim to have defeated the Al Qaeda, for his reelection. His friend, Susan Rice went on various television interviews after the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi on 11 September, 2012, claiming that the attack was not pre-planned but was in response to a film on the prophet. The US continues to supply sophisticated weapons to Pakistan, knowing that they are used to kill Indians. Finally, though we will never know, Obama probably invited himself to the Republic Day functions in January where he must have threatened Modi into abandoning his bullet-for-bullet response against Pakistan. A danger to democracy, a protector of terrorists and a lying villain - that is who Obama is.

We Indians must learn to look up.

Seems that Prime Minister, Narendra Modi still has an average popularity rating of 74%, with 82% in metro cities and 67% in non-metro areas. In metro cities 70% would vote for him today with 62% in non-metro areas. Most perplexing and counter intuitive is that 82% in metro areas and 74% in non-metro areas support his handling of the economy. How then did the Aam Aadmi Party with its economically disastrous handouts win 67 out of 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly in February and the Trinamool Congress sweep the municipal elections in Bengal last month? People vote differently in parliamentary and state elections. In the case of Delhi it was greed of the people, to get as many freebies today, tomorrow be damned, that got the AAP into power although some of its promises, such as those of building 200 schools and 20 new colleges are pure fiction because the cost of land will break Delhi's budget. In Bengal the thugs who terrorised voters to keep the CPM in power for decades have all shifted loyalty to the TMC. Modi has to win state assemblies to get a majority in the Rajya Sabha without which opposition politicians will not allow him to pass major reforms. They have realised that abusing Hindus has polarised voters, increasing support for the BJP, so they have shifted to crocodile tears for farmers and the poor. In response Modi has announced a slew of welfare schemes to counter charges of being pro-rich. It will not be enough to improve the economy, create more jobs and banish poverty. There are too many people dependent on poverty for their wealth and power, so they will undo his reforms if they can. In their struggle to survive the poor lose their bargaining power. They are easily seduced into crime by criminals who share a portion of the loot with local villagers in return for which they get warning about police movements and are hidden when required. Farmers borrow money from money lenders at extortionate rates and, when a crop fails, commit suicide. This is where vultures build their fortunes. Politicians create more handouts, a part of which they pocket, NGOs spring up to collect money for charity, most of which goes in remunerations and travel, and the poor continue at the margins of survival, always dependent on kindness. Modi has to change that mindset. Bill Gates of Microsoft had this to say about Steve Jobs of Apple," He has an expectation of superlative things in his work and the products they would create. His most natural, innate sense was a world-class instinct about whether this or that object met certain standards. He had extremely high standards of what was shit, and what was not shit." We are told that shit is good because poverty is so lucrative. If Modi can make us look up instead of down it will be his legacy.

A humanitarian civil war?

Depending on who you ask China is the new superpower, about to overtake the US, or it is a closed, highly corrupt authoritarian state about to implode, due to its internal defects. China's nominal GDP at $10 trillion is less than that of the US at over $16 trillion but on Purchasing Power Parity China has already overtaken the US. China has invested vast sums of money in building infrastructure in Africa and Latin America to project its soft power. Its private sector is buying up firms in Europe, which are cheap because of the fall in the value of the Euro. It is building a ' silk road ' to connect its economy with those of its neighbors. It is establishing a BRICs Bank and an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to bypass the IMF and the Asian Development Bank. On the other hand there are those who see an imminent end to China. Apparently, 64% of High Networth Individuals, that is 393 millionaires and billionaires, are emigrating or thinking of doing so. Chinese President, Xi Jinping believes that Mikhail Gorbachev was a weak man and his policy of perestroika and glasnost were mistakes that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Communist Party in Russia. He has instituted a crackdown on corruption to increase his own power and to tighten the grip of the Communist Party. But there is opposition to his policies from others in the Party and from local officials who are losing out. An article in China's state controlled Xinhua says that democracy would have been disastrous for China. " At best, China would have been another India, the world's biggest democracy by Western standards where 20 percent of the world's poorest live and whose democracy focuses on how power is divided. In 2014, India registered a per capita gross domestic product equal to a mere quarter of China's GDP," it wrote. The Chinese government has issued a Document no 9 to root out western ' universal values ' from the system. As Mr Modi heads to China he should always bear in mind the contempt the Chinese have for us. There are many examples of the ' benevolent dictator ', such as Park Chug-hee of South Korea, Augusto Pinochet of Chile and Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, who have made their countries wealthy by working towards development but concentration of power in a few individuals is inherently destabilising as others try to subvert them to grab power for themselves. Some think that since promotion of officials depended on growth they used corruption to promote the massive growth in the economy. While the total debt has risen to 282% of GDP the government is looking at more fiscal stimulus, which will increase debt, to stop the sharp slowdown in the economy. Let us hope that China collapses quickly, before it has dammed all the rivers in Tibet which flow into India. A civil war in China would be excellent for all its neighbors.