Sunday, May 31, 2015

If it is a zero sum game should everyone go on holiday?

Indian exports slowed by 14% in April which is of concern for the Prime Minister's ' Make in India ' policy. Not much point making stuff unless you can sell it, but how can you sell when global demand is weak? US exports fell 3% in January and 1.6% in February but grew by 0.9% in March. The Federal Reserve in the US stopped its bond buying program in October of last year, although it has kept interest rate at 0%, and the dollar has appreciated against all currencies. China's exports fell 6.4% in April after falling 14.6% in March. South Korea saw fall in exports by 8.5% in April after a 10% fall in March. On the other hand Germany's exports grew by 12.4% in March, so that Germany has a huge current account surplus of 8% of GDP, while Japan's exports grew by 8% year-on-year, though the rate of growth slowed to 2.4% in February, followed by 1.8% in March. The export growth of these 2 countries can be explained by big falls in the values of their currencies. The Euro has fallen by 25% against the dollar, while the Yen is trading at 124 to the dollar, having risen to 79 to the dollar in 2012. China has cut interest rate 3 times in 6 months. Around 30 countries have cut interest rates this year, including India. India was hampered by high retail inflation but this is now under 5% so the RBI is being urged to cut interest rate further. Monetary easing makes a nation's currency weaker, which helps exports by making goods cheaper. But is this tit-for-tat devaluation a zero sum game? Prof Nouriel Roubini agrees. " The sum of all trade balances in the world is equal to zero, which means that not all countries can be net exporters - and that currency wars end up being zero sum games," he writes. " Currency frictions lead to trade frictions and currency wars can lead to trade wars." Monetary easing by so many countries coincided with the end of bond buying by the Federal Reserve, leading to a jump in the value of the dollar against all currencies. This not only hurts US exports but distorts trade for other countries. Commodity exporting countries, like Brazil, lose by getting less dollars while importing countries, like India, gain by having to pay less for imports. On the other hand companies in India have borrowed in other currencies to take advantage of low interest rates and a stronger dollar means they will have to pay more in rupees which, combined with falling profits, could cause stress. Anticipating a rise in US interest rate there was a sell off in bonds throughout the world, including in India, raising yields. Meanwhile the repeated bond buying by the Federal Reserve has created a shortage of US treasuries. If the Fed sells bonds that will reduce liquidity and raise borrowing cost, which the Fed is reluctant to do. It's a real mess. No wonder RBI Chairman, Raghuram Rajan clashed with previous Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke. Since it is a zero sum game it does not matter if you do anything or not. Would it not be better if everyone went for vacation? At least tourism will gain.

No comments: