Toss a coin for monetary policy?

Are central banks founts of wisdom, as people perceive them to be, or do they try to apply band-aid to damage inflicted by events not under their control? To cope with the dotcom crisis of 2000 the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates to below 2% which led to the subprime crisis of 2007-08, since when the rate has been kept at 0.25%. The Fed also resorted to a program of purchasing treasuries and mortgage backed securities to inject massive amounts of liquidity into banks in, what was known as, Quantitative Easing. The US economy has improved, unemployment has come down to 5.4% and consumer spending has increased to $11.173 trillion in the first quarter of this year, although not by as much as experts had hoped for. The Fed stopped its bond buying program last year and the dollar has been rising since. The rise of the dollar was good for exporting economies, such as China, but bad for countries which export commodities, such as Brazil. For India a strong dollar means a rise in the cost of imports in rupees, which partially cancels the benefits from a fall in the global price of oil. Experts were predicting a continued rise in the dollar because apparently there are outstanding debts of about $9 trillion which need to be paid back, thus increasing demand and driving up its value. And then the dollar fell, leaving all the experts surprised. Global investors bought into gold Exchange Traded Funds as dollar fell. With financial sanctions on Russia over Ukraine and the falling price of oil the ruble tumbled, Russians were buying dollars in panic and western newspapers were crowing about the imminent fall of President Putin. The ruble fell to 68 to the dollar in December and experts were predicting that it will fall further but instead it is trading at 49.5 to the dollar today, completely confounding them. With markets consistently surprising experts what is our Reserve Bank to do? Should it look purely at national figures of growth, inflation, government spending and various deficits or should it try to anticipate what will happen globally in trying to set its rates policy? To some extent its hand maybe forced. There has been a bond sell off recently, increasing yields on US and German bonds by as much as 50 basis points in anticipation of rising interest rates in the US and the Eurozone. Experts seem to be having great fun trying to predict what will happen if and when central banks in the US, Europe and Japan start tightening monetary policy. Along with the global sell off in bonds there has been a sell off in India as well, raising yields to 8%. Rising yields raise the cost of government borrowing and increased repatriation of dollars will put downward pressure on the rupee. It seems to be guesswork, so just toss a coin?