Friday, April 12, 2013

Flying around will increase air miles but not growth.

Our most revered Finance Minister has been flying around from hither to thither to rally the troops so that they are inspired to invest more in the economy, fueling a growth spurt just before the elections. He can almost smell the marigold garlands and taste the ghee in laddoos as he comes back in triumph to the Parliament. Never mind that his election in 2009 is still disputed but thanks to our sympathetic judges that has become irrelevant. Why is he flying around like a little birdie? Seems that new project announcements have fallen by a massive 92% compared to the peak seen in March 2009. They are down 75% compared to the last financial year to Rs 662 billion. The slowdown is across the board in all industries, with manufacturing down 87%.  It is down 24% compared to the March quarter last year. Livemint, 7 April. Bank loans, which are an indicator of investments, grew by 12.9% in the current fiscal when it was expected to grow by 15.5%. Not just new investments, old projects have stalled as well. 215 old projects, worth Rs 2.5 billion each, are not moving, making a total of Rs 7 trillion and 127 new projects worth a total of Rs 3.5 trillion are stalled. That makes a grand total of Rs 10.5 trillion worth of projects stuck in limbo. That is about 20% of bank loans exposure. Banks have lent just Rs 540 billion so far. Seems that money is not a problem although we are told that liquidity is so tight that banks are having to borrow Rs 1 trillion everyday from the Reserve Bank to continue working. Anyway the main reasons seem to be land acquisition, reliable coal and gas supplies and clearance from environment and forest ministries. " Corporate lending, that forms almost 65% of bank sector loans will lead the slowdown in FY 14 owing to drying up of capex ( capital expenditure ) pipeline and much lower infra ( infrastructure ) loans together with some moderation in WC ( working capital ) loans. Moreover, fresh loan approvals are down an estimated 60-70% year-on-year," said Bank of America and Merrill Lynch analysts Rajeev Verma and Veekash Gandhi. Oh dear. The World Famous Economist keeps assuring us about sizzling growth while these boys are talking about a slowdown this year. The remedies are so simple. Reduce the number of ministers from 53 to 15. The more the ministers the more the loot. Stop lying about " inclusive growth " which is grand larceny of taxpayer money to bribe the electorate. Instead of social programs spend money on roads, electricity, telecom and coal. Do not auction natural resources at the highest price. Instead auction profit sharing which will keep costs down. Finally raise interest rates to control inflation while lowering taxes to stimulate spending which will result in growth. Trouble is, they will have to admit that they are in a huge pile of dung. Perhaps better to collect air miles. Maybe useful after elections.

No comments: