What shade of green?

Our most revered Finance Minister can see " green shoots of recovery " sprouting everywhere in the economy. We understand that being in charge of finance he cannot really speak the truth because there will be a run on the markets and market capitalization of companies will dive. He has to be optimistic at all times and speak of grand visions. Sadly others tramp over the " green shoots " with large boots. A study by the Reserve Bank has shown that Non Performing Assets, which is the sugar coated term for bad loans, rose from 0.97% to 1.28% in 2012, creating instability in the banking sector. NPAs in public sector banks rose from 1.09% to 1.53% while those in the private sector declined by 0.10%. TOI, 21 January. Referring to the financial crisis of 2008-09 the report says " the real act of the financial crisis was enacted in the courtyard of the banking sector where the trigger of financial crisis initially took place." Maybe, but not in India. There was no sub-prime crisis in India and property prices have not only remained buoyant but have been rising relentlessly. Perhaps what the bank is hinting at is what the Congress did when it forgave loans to farmers to win elections in 2009. PSU banks have never really recovered from that act of vandalism and are probably suffering from renewed bad loans from the farming sector. The real damage has been caused by ever rising inflation which has cut consumer spending leading to rising commercial bad loans. However, remedies prescribed by the government may not lead to a cure. Nobel Prize winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz says," The FDI in retail can promote instability by way of the exploitative and corrupt ways of the MNCs to hold sway over retail markets." What he means is that these companies with enormous reserves will drive out local stores by offering predatory low prices, get permits by paying bribes, pay very low wages and force farmers to sell their produce at rock bottom prices increasing poverty in agriculture. They may therefore cause social unrest. In an article in the New York Times on 21 January, one Steven Rattner writes that India has no hope of overtaking China. GDP per capita in China is $9146 while in India it is $3851, GDP growth in China is 7.7% while in India it is 5.3%, Inflation in China is 2.6% while in India it is 7.5%, Unemployment in China is 4.1% while in India it is 9.8%, Budget Deficit in China is 1.1% while in India it is 7.2% of GDP and Investment as a portion of the GDP is 48% in China while it is 36% in India. His figures were obtained from the IMF, Bloomberg and The Economist. Also China has 16 subway systems while we have only 5. In only one parameter is India above China. We are worse in Transparency International's annual Corruption Perception Index. Shoots there maybe but in a very pale shade of green.