Sunday, January 13, 2013

Making hay while it lasts?

Our most revered Finance Minister is off to foreign parts to meet investors to try and boost capital inflows. This is because the Current Account Deficit is going beyond 5.4% and a downgrade to junk rating beckons. Apparently he will visit Hong Kong on 22 January and then go to Singapore. He will then go all the way west to Frankfurt and London. Perhaps he is unaware that Britain is well on its way to a triple dip recession and German growth is falling rapidly. So there may not be an abundance of free cash for Europeans to invest. However, the New Year sales will be in full swing so some great bargains are to be had. Businessmen in the US have no clue as to whether the country will be able to pay its dues in March as the Republicans in the House are determined not to raise the debt ceiling. The debate is about whether to mint a platinum coin worth $1 trillion and deposit it with the Federal Reserve against which the Fed will pay all the bills. The alternative is to hand out IOUs signed personally by Barack Obama which the holder will retrieve later once the House is back on its psychiatric medication. Apparently this was the route adopted by California to get out of its bankruptcy. However, California does not have the option of minting platinum coins so did not really have a choice. So no point going to the US with a begging bowl unless our Minister wants to sneak into the International Monetary Fund to beg for dollars. Problem is that if he is recognised going in the IMF building the rupee will fall and we will dive into junk grade straight away. Wonder if he is carrying a false beard and moustache with him. What is impossible to understand is what he is hoping to achieve. Does he think that foreigners are stupid and have no idea what is going on with our economy? Does he think that they do not study our figures thoroughly and decide for themselves? The reason why foreigners are shunning India is precisely because they are pessimistic about our economy. The Volkswagen group, makers of Skoda, Volkswagen and Audi cars, has decided not to invest any more in India until 2015. " The policy framework here is not stable which company will like to invest?" said MD John Chacko. Jim Rogers, Chairman of Roger Holdings says," I am not a fan of India. So I do not think you are going to see a lot of good news coming out of India. India has inflation due to its own reasons, not because of international factors like high oil prices. India for some reason gets better press than the reality. I still have not figured out the Indian press." A lying, freeloading press may fool the citizens but foreigners are not so easily fooled. Maybe the Minister is not sure about the Congress winning the next election or of retaining his seat. The AIADMK has filed a petition in front of the Tamil Nadu High Court claiming that he stole the last election in 2009. So maybe he is making hay while there is still time.

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