Monday, September 26, 2011
Seems that credit agencies could lower India's credit rating from BBB- which implies stable. They think that growth will fall to 7.2% and deficit could rise to 5.7% of GDP. Inflation continues to be at 10% and a cut in credit rating will push up borrowing cost impacting growth and leading to a further fall in the value of the rupee which would then worsen inflation. This scenario is not scare mongering but the best outcome that can happen. If, however, Greece were to exit the Euro then the world economy will crash. There will be a huge sellout in developing markets as traders in the west look for the safe haven of the dollar and the rupee could suddenly plummet. All the above figures would be magnified many times over and the economy could collapse. So where are our esteemed leaders. Seven of them are in the US including our most revered Prime and Finance ministers and including, naturally, secretaries of their various ministries. One minister is in Japan, another is doing the rounds of Baltic countries starting in Finland and a third is in China. It is so encouraging that union ministers are enjoying so hard on our behalf. They are doing this to give the impression that there is nothing to worry about, that they know things that we don't and they are rushing around the world scattering wisdom to the leaders of all other countries. We are never told about the total level of government debt including sovereign debt, debt of all the states and the cumulative debt of useless companies such as Air India, BSNL and Prasar Bharti. Maybe no one knows. Which is good because that will fool foreigners. No wonder the World Famous Economist is famous.
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