Monday, September 19, 2011

Emboldened by events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya the Palestinians have decided that the time is right to put Israel under pressure. Palestinians are going to ask the UN General Assembly to pass a resolution according it full member status. If passed the resolution will go before the Security Council where the US has already promised to veto it. However, the US would rather not have to do that because it will inflame anti US feelings in Arab countries. The Palestinians now have " Permanent Observer Entity " status at the UN and if denied membership, as they want, will ask for " Enhanced Observer Member " status which can be passed by a simple majority by the UN General Assembly. In diplomatic mumbo jumbo it will be a promotion and Israel is vehemently opposed to such enhancement of Palestinian position. Israel says that it supports an independent Palestinian state while at the same time continuing to build settlements on the West Bank. On the ground nothing will change as the Israeli army will continue to control access to the West Bank and Gaza but it will open the floodgates to further mischief by neighboring countries like Turkey when it tried to force an aid convoy to Gaza resulting in the deaths of 9 activists. With the US weakened by a recession and Republican jihadists, islamists becoming stronger in Egypt and Libya, Iran racing ahead with building nuclear weapons and Turkey just muddying waters an all out war is a real possibility. Will this remain localised in the middle east or will rogue countries like China take advantage and attack Taiwan or other countries we do not know. The Arab spring is in danger of turning into an Arab nightmare.

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