Monday, February 09, 2009

Inspite of billions of dollars of research no one can claim to know how the human mind works. The latest scans show parts of the brain related to pleasure, sorrow, fear or reward but no one can say why any one person reacts to a certain situation or predict how one person or a group will respond. This is the problem with economic theories or predictions. Nobel Prize winning economists can analyse the past and come up with fancy formulas but cannot predict what will happen in the future because this depends on human behaviour. No one predicted the current depression or the preceding burst of the dotcom bubble. Every time there is a boom we hear of a Goldilocks economy and any warning of a coming bust is laughed off as doom mongering. So now we have a situation where 700 billion dollars were doled out to ailing banks so that they would resume lending. Instead banks hoarded the cash and spent $ 18 billion in bonuses. So now another $ 800 billion dollars are going to be poured in. This response is based on analying the 1929 depression but the world today is totally different to what it was back then. With trillions of dollars pouring out of national coffers no one knows if central banks have any control over money supply, whether currency fluctuations will get out of control or whether public anger will cause unintended consequences like the break of the European Union. It is all about the ' psychology of the individual.' We may have been safer with Jeeves in charge.

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