Saturday, February 21, 2009
The world economy is in a mess. The predictions range from recession to depression to deflation. The Indian government has been trying to stimulate the economy but it has limited scope for further action. Having given massive increases to useless civil servants and paid for cancelling bank loans of farmers the deficit has already reached 6% of GDP and taking states into account will reach 10%. Internal debt is set to reach 80% of GDP. Tax receipts are expected to fall further limiting government spending. Exports have been hit hard. Already 5 million jobs have been lost and a further 10 million are expected to go. Industrial output has declined two months running and could continue to do so if people cut spending. The pressure is on for the Reserve Bank to reduce interest rates. The Bank seems curiously reluctant to do so even though interest are near zero in the US and Japan and falling elsewhere. Maybe the Bank is afraid of a run on the rupee. Yet evreyone from minister to kleptocrat to business tycoon predicts a growth rate of 7% next fiscal. For a trillion dollar economy 7% is $ 70 billion which amounts to Rs. 3.5 trillion. Surely such a massive amount should employ millions more? Yet Mr. Pranab Mukherjee, who is standing in for the Prime Minister, who was standing in for the Finance Minister, who morphed into Home Minister says that employees should take a cut in wages to prvent job cuts. Er, the maths seem like Satyam accounts.
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