Monday, August 27, 2007

There is a lot of silly talk coming out of Washington about American withdrawal from Iraq. The south of Iraq constitutes 60% of the population and is Shia. This area also has most of the Iraqi oil. The south of Iraq shares its borders with Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Jordan thus Iran will be sitting on the borders of these countries through its proxy militias. Kuwait, Saudi and Jordan are Arabs and thus ancient enemies of Persian Iran. More pertinent they are Sunnis and bitterly hate the Shias of Iran. These three countries must be terrified of any American withdrawal because they will be at the complete mercy of Iran which has a huge and very committed army. More importantly Iran will be able to control most of the Gulf oil if it should so choose to do. That is surely intolerable for the US and its friends in Europe and Asia. The only credible way the Americans can leave Iraq without creating a gigantic geopolitical mess is to take out Iran and hope to bring about regime change by engineering some revolt after destroying its defence capabilities by massive bombing. We hear that millions of dollars of arms have gone missing in Iraq and no one knows how. Surely it would not be easy to move tons of arms through American checkpoints without anyone noticing. Can we assume that these have gone to Iranian dissidents for future use? After all the Americans are supplying arms to Sunnis who were their previous enemies. Is it possible that Arabs will join the US in bombing Iran with Israel grinning in the background. ? Delicious thought. Go for it George.

No comments: