Wednesday, April 04, 2007

The Comptroller and Accountant General of India (CAG) has just said that money marked for education and compulsory rural employment scheme is not reaching the target. It is being stolen. On the other hand the Reserve Bank just increased interest rates and th Cash Reserve Ratio to suck liquidity out of the system so as to being down inflation. these two news items are linked in that vasts amount of stolen or 'black' money is being used to buy property and is being made white by round tripping to invest in the stock market. The phenomenal rise in the prices of both, more than any other country in the world, has also led to a feel good factor raising public spending on durable goods. The RBI will not be able to control inflation until it raises rates to the level that it hurts borrowers and reduces spending thus leading to a recession. This is what happened in 2001. Asset prices had risen towards the end of the 90s until interest rates were so high that banks were giving 14% on fixed deposits and company bonds were paying 18-20%. This led to recession and lowering of interest rates sparking off the present boom. Unless the politicians and civil servants are stopping from looting this boom and bust cycle will continue. Only the people will suffer as they have been doing since independence.

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