Jyoti has left us in darkness.

Exactly one year ago today a young woman, named Jyoti was viciously raped by 4 men inside a bus in Delhi. The attack was so savage in its brutality that all her intestines were ruptured, eventually causing her death due to infection. ' Jyoti ' means ' light ' but what followed her violation was perhaps the darkest period in our history. In order to conceal her name the press named her ' Nirbhay ' which means ' fearless ' as though this young woman, out for an innocent evening with her boyfriend, had any choice in the bestiality visited on her. Was it an attempt to make her sound noble as though she had volunteered her life in the cause of her country, as women do in the armed forces, and thus sanitise the disgusting event to protect the Congress government? There was a spontaneous outpouring of anger at this senseless destruction of a life and people, especially the young, came from all over the country to demonstrate on the streets. The politicians completely ignored the event at first. Safe in their billion rupee bungalows, paid for by the taxpayer, travelling in cars with flashing lights, claiming right of way over ambulances and fire engines, and protected by a posse of police, armed with automatic guns the loss of one life in a country of 1.2 billion is of little concern to them. This when Delhi had a woman Chief Minister, of the Congress, and a woman totally controls the Congress which runs the central government. When the anger boiled over at the callous disregard of the politicians they reacted the way they have always done when faced with peaceful protests. With brutal force. People were savagely beaten up, gassed and arrested on false charges. When a policeman collapsed and died, probably due to the exertion of thrashing people, it was immediately announced that he had been beaten to death by the protesters. This was an excuse to clamp down even more brutally and eventually the protesters had to flee to save their own lives. Later the lie was exposed. The policeman had died of a heart attack. To cover up for their earlier mistake the politicians suddenly brimmed over with tender love and she was sent to a Singapore hospital for treatment. She was probably dead by this time anyway. The result of this cruel farce? Rape cases have doubled since then. Poor Jyoti. Her light was extinguished twice - once by her attackers and then by the politicians. Poor Indians - we are imprisoned in the dark by our politicians.

You cannot kill an idea.

Till now people in India had become used to the fact that criminals became politicians because that gave them power to control the police and so stay out of prison. To hide their corruption they corrupted the police and the CBI so violent crimes, such as rape and murder, went out of control. Certain institutions such as the Election Commission, Comptroller and Auditor General and the Supreme Court tried to keep them in check but it was like trying to hold back the tide. Politicians resented being held to account for gross misuse of taxpayer money on the excuse of reducing poverty. First create poverty by levying extortionate taxes on all goods and services, then throw handouts at the poor in the form of various social schemes and skim the cream off the top. Anyone demanding accountability was accused of being anti poor and vilified. If people agitated for justice they were severely beaten up. If high taxes and indiscriminate spending caused soaring inflation it was an excuse for more handouts such as the Food Security Bill which aims to distribute wheat at Rs 2 per kg and rice at Rs 3 a kg to 800 million people, which would be more than the whole of North and South America combined. Until now. Less than a year ago a new party called the Aam Aadmi Party or AAP sprang up in Delhi and decided to contest the assembly elections held a couple of weeks back. Why promise a little here and a little there, they decided to promise everything to everyone. The poor were promised free water, electricity at half price, regularisation of all unauthorised colonies and cheap food. The middle class was promised complete transparency, no corruption, no cars with flashing lights holding up traffic, no free accommodation at taxpayer expense and open government. Young people were seduced with more jobs as prosperity increased. At first the established parties dismissed the AAP as a joke but the AAP went on to win 28 seats out of 70 in Delhi and in the process, inflicted a humiliating defeat on the 3 time Chief Minister of the Congress. Now the parties are refusing any horse trading as in the past. The Congress has introduced the Lok Pal Bill which it had scuppered and the Finance Minister, who had arrogantly dismissed inflation, is talking about controlling it.  Pundits dismiss the AAP as a temporary phenomenon but if it can create the idea of complete intolerance of corruption it will have done its job. We wish it all the best.

Should have listened to Mom.

As we grow up our mothers teach us not to lie or steal, to respect others and serve the country. Sadly, Congress fellows forgot their own mothers to prostrate themselves to a foreign woman with such abject servility that they have sickened the entire nation as the recent humiliation in state elections have proved. So servile are they that no one dared to tell her that opinion polls predicted a rout. " We were nervous meeting her....jostling like school children....no one wanted to talk first," confessed a Congress General Secretary. Shades of North Korea? To divert attention from the Commonwealth Games scam before elections in 2009, which brought such international shame on India, the Congress refused a Joint Parliamentary Committee investigation on the 2G scam. The opposition fell into the trap and the entire abuse was concentrated on the DMK. Now the DMK is refusing to ally with the Congress for the coming Lok Sabha elections. DMK heir apparent, MK Stalin has described the Congress as " untouchable ". Oh dear. To bribe the electorate the Congress resorted to massive spending on diverse handouts. This resulted in inflation but the RBI kept interest rates low until CPI went into double digits. As late as last October, even as people were being crushed by rising prices, slashing demand, our most revered Finance Minister was pressuring the RBI to reduce interest rates. Echoing Tagore he said that he would walk alone if need be. Returns on savings became negative as the rate of inflation was higher than interest offered on term deposits by banks. To protect their money people started to buy gold but that increased the Current Account Deficit and the threat of credit downgrade loomed ominously. To make it unprofitable the government increased tax on gold to 10% and on jewellery to 15%. Smugglers were ecstatic. Gold imports of surrounding countries have boomed and their CAD are becoming uncomfortable. Sri Lanka imported $110 million worth of gold in the first 4 months of this year compared to $150 million in the whole of last year and gold import of Pakistan has shot up to 3,265 kg in the first 2 months of this year compared to 347 kg last year. So desperate is the Congress that it is looking to overturn the Supreme Court verdict criminalising homosexuality. There go the minority votes that the Congress persecuted Hindus for. They should have listened to their birth mothers.

Crooks feel so comfortable in India.

A report by Global Financial Integrity, based in Washington in the US, ranks India 5th largest exporter of illicit money. Between 2002 and 2011 around $5.9 trillion were transferred out of developing countries. In 2011 alone $946.7 billion, generated by crime, corruption and tax evasion, drained out of poor countries. India's share in this was $84.93 billion in 2011 and a total of $343.04 billion between 2004 and 2011. GFI President, Raymond Baker says," Anonymous shell companies, tax haven secrecy and trade- based money laundering techniques drained nearly a trillion dollars from the world's poorest in 2011, at a time when rich and poor nations alike are struggling to spur economic growth." Where is all that money going to? The UK has 7 tax shelters and the US has 9. In the US, Alaska, Delaware, Florida, Nevada, Texas, Wyoming and Washington have incorporation laws similar to tax havens. This might explain why Indian politicians keep running to the US on flimsiest of excuses. No wonder India is ranked 94th on Global Corruption Perception Index by Transparency International. These figures are not surprising when we consider that most of our civil servants and politicians are criminals. Within the last 5 years we have been regaled with so many scams that it is impossible to remember the list. Trillions of rupees looted by the scum have to be stored somewhere. Those who have the means keep the money abroad in numbered accounts while the rest invest in properties, thus creating the mother of price bubbles. This relationship is wonderfully illustrated by the adventures of Mr Ashok Khemka who alleged shady land dealings by Mr Robert Vadra, son in law of Mrs Sonia Gandhi. Mr Khemka is an officer in Haryana which has a Congress government and the Congress will do anything to protect The Family. Thus Mr Khemka has been charged with misconduct by the Haryana government while civil servants, who were found to be complicit in shady deals by the High Court, have not been charged. Even more incredible, there are intelligent and educated people who actually advocate not punishing civil servants for the crimes they commit. Apparently this frightens them so much that they stop working. Make it a law that if a file is not cleared by one month they lose one month's salary and see how they jump. Should we be making excuses for criminals to make them feel safe?

Individuals with moral courage are game changers.

Speaking at ET Awards 2013 our most revered Finance Minister said," Reforms require game changers. Game Changers are not individual men or individual women. Game changers are ideas. Game changers are institutions." Oh dear. Is he saying that Gandhi was not a game changer? Ideas do not grow on trees but come from individuals who are original thinkers and are not afraid of criticism. It is the Congress party which has destroyed the economy by playing the same old game of bribing the " vote bank " with taxpayer money and destroying institutions such as the CBI by using it to harass opponents while deliberately messing up cases against friends. Game changers are not always for the good however, as was exemplified at Nelson Mandela's funeral. There was Robert Mugabe who has murdered thousands to stay in power, destroyed the Zimbabwean economy and is determined to hang on to power even at the age of 89 years. There was Tony Blair skulking in the background. A war criminal who was a shameless poodle to George Bush and who apparently had " multiple encounters " with Wendi Deng precipitating her divorce from Rupert Murdoch. The present President of South Africa, Jacob Zuma is definitely not a game changer. Accused of corruption and rape, married 6 times with 20 children, some of whom are from affairs with other women, and spending $20 million of public money to extend his private residence to house his enormous family. We know and loath his type in India. He was booed every time his picture appeared on screens. Obama and David Cameron are no game changers either. They could not resist squashing Denmark's Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt, who seems quite a babe, to take a selfie. Cheap thrills. Mandela was definitely a game changer. Imprisoned for 27 years on Robben Island by the apartheid regime he brought about a peaceful transition to black rule without bloodshed. In the movie about him he is played by Morgan Freeman. When told to change the symbol of white supremacy, the Springboks rugby team he says," That is selfish. It does not serve the nation." About whites he says," We have to surprise them with restraint and generosity." It took great courage to tell the truth to people who had been brutally suppressed for a century. Sadly, our lot are puny crooks and liars.

Socialism is dead. Let us bury it forever.

Seems that our socialist friends in Venezuela are using blackmail on ONGC Videsh ( OVL ). Apparently the government has been taking money from its oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA to fund social schemes, leaving it short of cash. Now PdVSA is withholding $421 million in dividend payments to OVL to force it to pay for the entire investment in the 2 oil projects although it holds 40% share in one and just 11% in the other. Before we start getting angry about Venezuelan perfidy we should remember that this is exactly what our government has been doing. In mid-October our most revered Finance Minister called heads of all Central Public Sector Enterprises, including ONGC, and demanded higher dividends to reduce the exploding budget deficit, purely due to social schemes. He is demanding Rs 730 billion in dividends this year compared to Rs 550 billion last year. When Hugo Chavez became president in 1999 he used the country's oil wealth to start social schemes. This allowed him to win 3 elections but inflation soared and the Bolivar dropped in value. On 1 January, 2008 the Bolivar Fuerte, or strong Bolivar, was introduced in exchange for 1000 old Bolivars. At introduction it was 2.15 to the dollar. As inflation soared it dropped to 4.30 and then on 13 February, 2013 it was adjusted to 6.30 to the dollar. Chavez died on 5 March 2013 and was succeeded by Nicolas Maduro who does not have the same charisma as Chavez did and so has continued with social schemes. Inflation has soared to 54% and Caracas has become the murder capital of the world. It was President Lula who started Bolsa Familia where families were paid directly provided they kept their children in schools and took them for health check ups. The Congress thought it was good a wheeze to win elections and started the Direct Benefit Transfer Scheme but without any conditions. A jubilant Congress fellow even called it a " game changer ". However, inflation, especially in food, was going out of control. So the Congress brought in a Food Security Bill which promised cheap food to around 800 million people. Sadly, this broke WTO rules on subsidies so our Commerce Minister went to the negotiations in Bali determined to wreck the entire trade deal if we were not allowed to break the rules. Naturally we infuriated everyone. Socialism perpetuates poverty. It must be made a criminal offense to use it to win elections.

Most of our growth came from scams.

A couple of days back the World Business Report on the BBC showed a group of young women eating sushi at a " kitty party " inside a luxury mall. There is so much money in India now that the top designer labels are opening outlets in cities, confident of handsome profits. And yet we are told that only 35 million people pay any income tax and the Congress has been spending trillions of rupees in the name of " inclusive growth ". Bank loans to farmers were forgiven, the MNREGA scheme pays the rural poor for 100 days a year for fictitious work, farmers are paid a Minimum Support Price for grains which is higher than the market price, tribals will be paid a MSP for forest produce, The Food Security Bill promises to provide wheat at Rs 2 per kg and rice at Rs 3 a kg to around 800 million poor people, a Backwards Regions Grant, Below Poverty Line cards which are better than winning a lottery and an endless list of handouts. If we are such a poor country who buys handbags for Rs 2 million each and shoes for Rs 1 million each? How did they make so much money? We have people like the late Ponty Chadha who could get monopoly license to sell liquor as well as permission to provide midday meals in schools in UP because of his proximity to politicians. There are the Reddy brothers who were making trillions from illegal mines in Karnataka and 2 former Chief Ministers were named in the Goa mining scam. A report by the Comptroller and Auditor General estimates that Rs 1.86 trillion were lost in the Coalgate scam in which mines were distributed to family and friends.  Then there were the 2G scam, the Commonwealth Games scam, the Tetra trucks scam, the Scorpene submarines scam, the Augusta-Westland helicopters scam, the Railway Board scam and other scams yet to be reported. Billionaires in India refuse to repay loans taken from banks. They use their connections to politicians to get bank officers to restructure loans by issuing new ones. Banks are sitting on trillions of rupees of Non Performing Assets. A report by Credit Suisse says that 10 large infrastructure companies have combined bank debt of Rs 63.1 trillion, which is half of the GDP of India. That is why land prices are zooming up, inflation is uncontrolled and luxury retailers are coming here. The vaunted growth is built on stolen wealth which is why it is not generating taxes. BBC should not be surprised.

It can only be good to light fireworks underneath the criminals.

Yesterday, Sunday was a tumultuous day as votes cast in the recent elections in 4 states were counted. From early trends it was clear that the BJP was going to win big in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan while it was nail biting stuff in Delhi and Chhattisgarh. For a while it seemed that the BJP, under Chief Minister Raman Singh, would lose Chhattisgarh because of the sympathy vote in the Bastar region where 30 Congress leaders, including Mahendra Karma, the architect of Salwa Judum, were killed in May. Eventually Raman Singh won a comfortable majority with 49 seats out of a total of 90. While it was a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP in 3 states, Delhi had a new party called the Aam Aadmi Party or AAP, which had chosen a broom as its election symbol, in a deliberate provocation to the other parties. The AAP promised a transparent government free of corruption, a Jan Lokpal Bill to tackle corruption in government and no deal with any other party as they are all corrupt. It is no wonder that traditional parties hate the AAP but the people loved it and it won 28 seats out of a total of 70 in Delhi. Not just that, the AAP chief, Arvind Kejriwal humiliated 3 time Delhi Chief Minister, Sheila Dixit of the Congress by over 25,000 votes. Pundits are claiming that this is the end of winning elections by dishing out freebies to the poor on taxpayer money but sadly, that is not the case. Raman Singh is known as " chawal wale baba " in Chhattisgarh because he was giving rice, gram and salt to the poor almost free. Shivraj Singh Chouhan won in MP by giving money to girls, distributing free bicycles to children, subsidised food grains and 24 hour electricity to rural families. Ashok Gehlot lost in Rajasthan despite giving wheat at Rs 2 a kg, pensions and free medicines in government hospitals. The AAP was promising to reduce electricity bills by half, free water and other handouts for the poor without stating how they were going to pay for them. The danger is that the Congress will see this as a victory of handouts and pile on social schemes to win the general elections next year or leave behind a bankrupt economy if it loses. We wait to see what effect the AAP has on criminal states like UP, Bihar and Maharashtra. At the very least it has put some fear in the criminals who were so comfortable till now.

There is a pot of gold at the end of a well lighted road.

Manufacturing is usually labor intensive and for a poor country like India with hundreds of millions of young people providing cheap labor we should be having a thriving manufacturing sector, like China has. In an effort to stay in power the Communist Party in China built up gigantic modern infrastructure and actively helped companies to set up factories to provide employment to its people and supply cheap products all over the world, helping to keep down inflation, which encouraged central banks to keep interest rates low which, in turn, encouraged people in rich countries to go on a borrowing binge to buy Chinese made products, making China the second richest country in the world. India, on the other hand, has a so called democracy which means elections every 5 years. Unfortunately for us our politicians, being largely of the criminal class, took the easy option of wasting taxpayer money on social schemes to bribe the poor instead of improving education, building wide roads, ensuring constant electricity, universal healthcare and measures to reduce population. The consequence is that vast numbers of Indians have remained poor, dependent on handouts to survive, which is what politicians want. More than 3 million jobs were added in the organised sector between 2004 and 2010 but a survey by the National Sample Survey Organisation showed that there was a loss of 3 million jobs in the total manufacturing sector. Which means that the unorganised sector, which employs many more people, lost 6 million jobs. The unorganised sector produced 12.6 million new jobs between 1993 and 2004 but only 1 million new jobs between 2004 and 2012. It was partly due to the strong rupee which hampered export related industries such as textiles, garments, leather and gem cutting. Exports have rebounded since the rupee depreciated against the dollar but the Congress is trying desperately to strengthen the rupee, probably to control inflation. The infrastructure sector is in absolute shambles because projects were given to cronies who wanted to make windfall profits but have been halted by the CAG. A report by Credit Suisse says that 10 large infrastructure companies have a combined debt of Rs 63.1 trillion. Will we always remain poor for the sake of winning elections?

Every bad action has a much worse reaction.

Isaac Newton's third Law of Motion states that every action has an equal and opposite reaction. That is true in the pure world of physics but in the messy world of human beings an action maybe completely ignored and forgotten or result in exaggerated response. Thus, every bad action results in much worse reaction, because of the multiplier effect of millions of emotional human beings. The BJP government between 1998 and 2004 had lowered taxes, reformed telecom, bringing about a mobile revolution, reduced deficits, reduced subsidies in fuel and generated a Current Account surplus. In its overwhelming greed for power the Congress promised freebies to the poor who are happy to get mouldy bread today than jam tomorrow, not realising the diabolical ploy in the Politics of Perpetual Poverty. Thus trillions of rupees were wasted on a massive lie called " inclusive growth " instead of on productive infrastructure which would have allowed the poor to move out of poverty by starting small businesses, better education and improved health. This massive spending resulted in huge deficits, high inflation, an explosion in property prices, leading to accumulation of black money, and a fall in the value of the rupee. The government is now stuck. To reduce deficit it has to cut expenditure, but this will reduce growth. To reduce inflation interest rates need to go up but that will increase borrowing costs for industry and cause many companies to go bankrupt as they are sitting on massive loans which they need to restructure. To reduce CAD exports need to be encouraged by a weak rupee but that will increase prices of imports, especially oil, and add to inflation. To survive in next year's elections more humongous bribes need to be paid but that only adds to the fiscal deficit and inflation. The Congress thought that at least one painless method of reducing CAD would be to reduce the import of gold. After all purchase of gold by the people is completely unproductive and just locks up finance. So they increased taxes on gold from 2% to 10%. Gold imports fell but sadly so did precious dollars from the export of jewelry by 54% to $4 billion because of shortage of gold. Gold demand in Thailand has doubled as smugglers use drug routes to fill the demand in gold. Bad faith results in bad action. The reaction is terrible for India.

India needs patriots, not excuses.

At a keynote address at ET Now conclave in New Delhi on 29 November our most revered Finance Minister said," I don't produce growth. I don't produce growth, I don't deliver growth. No government delivers growth - government delivers the conditions for growth." Politicians, especially Indian ones, are known never to take responsibility for their actions. Last week the Prime Minister of Latvia, Valdis Dombrovskis resigned after a rood collapse at a supermarket killed 54 people. He came to power in 2009 and is credited with rescuing the economy from collapse. A government or finance minister may not be able to produce growth but they sure can destroy it as ours has done by indiscriminately wasting money to buy votes to win elections. The FM compares his record with that of the previous BJP government, boasting about the growth rate between 2006 and 2008, completely forgetting to mention that this growth purely due to the reforms instituted by the BJP, a flood of cheap money from abroad, subsidies on fuel and record borrowing by business companies because of abnormally low interest rates. He brags that the best GDP growth rate of 9.6% was in 2006-07, the lowest fiscal deficit of 2.5% in 2007-08 and the largest rise in foreign exchange reserves by $92 billion in 2007-08. True, but oil was at 64 dollars per barrel and the rupee was allowed to rise to 39.33 to the dollar. The foreign exchange rise was due to borrowing by businesses and hot money looking for higher returns from the stock market. Inflation was 4.74% only because the strength of the rupee kept inflation low by keeping imports, especially of oil, cheap. That was the time when the Reserve Bank should have increased interest rates to bring inflation down to below 3%, controlled excessive borrowing and bought large amounts of dollars to bring the rupee down to between 45-50 to the dollar which would have increased exports, reduced the CAD and built up a comfortable cushion so that we would not have to worry about the Federal Reserve tapering its bond buying program. We had a Current Account surplus from 2002 for 4 years. Even now, more wasteful social schemes are being invented to try and win elections next year. The FM says that the best is yet to come. Yes, when the Congress is wiped out.

Will we survive by ourselves?

The Doha round of trade talks at the WTO, which have been going on for over a decade, is going nowhere in Bali in Indonesia as India refuses to discuss its Food Security Bill. " For India, food security is non-negotiable," said our most revered Commerce Minister, Anand Sharma. " Public procurement at administered prices is often the only method of supporting farmers and building stocks for food security in developing countries. Need of public stockholding of food grains to ensure food security must be respected," he thundered. Sadly, we cannot believe his pious words because we are not convinced that the bill was passed to help poor people. We are of the opinion that the bill is an extremely cynical ploy by the Congress to win next year's general elections and will do genuine harm to the economy and to the poor. By paying a Minimum Support Price for food grains the cost of food goes up. A higher price encourages farmers to divert farmland to grain production creating shortage of fruits and vegetables as shown by the recent food inflation. Hoarding of grains by the government causes artificial shortage and, since India lacks adequate storage capacity, vast amounts of food are wasted. India is not the only country which pays subsidies to its farmers. The US pays billions of dollars of subsidies to farmers, some of whom are billionaires while the butter mountains and wine lakes of the European Union are legendary. Under WTO rules no country is allowed to pay subsidy of more than 10% of output and the fear is what the Congress will give away on other aspects of trade to protect the Food Security Bill. Memories of Sharm-al-Sheikh linger. Our talks with Asean for a Free Trade Agreement have fallen through recently. A trade agreement between India and the European Union is going nowhere after years of negotiations. The EU wants a reduction in duties on cars and wine, which means alcoholic drinks, which India is not prepared to concede because the government needs punishing taxes to pay for wasteful social programs. Meanwhile Europe and the US are pushing ahead with negotiations to conclude a transatlantic trade deal that would create the biggest trade block ever. The WTO will become redundant and they will dictate trade terms to others. We are not in Asean, Apec, Nafta and will not be in TTIP. On our own we will be crushed by the others. All to win lousy elections.

Does democracy end with elections?

In India if you see newspapers showing pictures of 3 or 4 pretty girls cheerfully giving the finger it means they have just voted in some elections. They are showing the indelible ink mark on their left index fingers which is applied to prevent bogus voting. Today is Delhi's turn to elect a new state government and voter turnout seems to be higher than in other years. Educated people are usually reluctant to vote because they see it as a waste of time. Political parties are legalised gangs, full of criminals guilty of the most heinous crimes, usually controlled by families and buying votes from legions of poor people with promises of free handouts at taxpayers' expense, never mind the cost to the economy. All these freebies have to be paid for so taxes are among the highest in the world making everything so expensive that the vast majority of people cannot afford them. Thus poverty is the excuse for keeping people poor so that they will be so grateful for the few cheap rubbish thrown at them that they will vote for whoever promises the most. So the election commission has incorporated a NOTA or " None Of The Above " button on the voting machines which is meaningless because even if a majority of people reject all candidates they will not be disqualified but the person with just one vote will win if the others get no votes. The gang which wins forms the government which means they can do whatever they like without having to account for their actions. They can order 12 luxury helicopters from Augusta-Westland at a cost of Rs 30 billion for their comfort, travel abroad with families and friends at will, make vast amounts of black money from dishing out coal mines, sign away our security at Sharm-al-Sheikh and destroy the economy with useless social schemes to keep a foreign woman in power. And then tell fancy stories to lull us into stupor. Our most revered Finance Minister writes how he is fighting to save the economy from collapsing since he returned to the ministry, completely forgetting to mention that he is the man responsible for all the social schemes responsible for the uncontrolled inflation and fiscal deficit. He talks about how glorious everything was in 2007 without talking about how he has destroyed the economy and how India is still 94th on the Corruption Perception Index with a score of 36 out of 100. Democracy has become the last refuge for the villains.

There can be no growth without education.

We can rejoice. The great sage of India, Montek Singh Ahluwalia has seen bottom. He now expects great growth in the economy. But he does not say how. A report by PeopleStrong, a human resource company, says that jobs will increase by a mere 1.4% next year. The good news is that the skills of the those joining the labor force have improved, the bad news is that only 34% of them are employable. A previous study found that only one in four was employable. India turns out more than 4 million graduates every year of which more than one million are from professional colleges and 600,000 are engineering graduates. That is not surprising when this government has criminally ruined education by banning examinations in schools and guaranteeing promotion to a higher class for all students. This was done because the Congress levied a new tax on the middle class when it passed a Right to Education Bill which forces private schools to reserve 25% of seats for poor children. Most of these children would have illiterate parents who would not be able to help them with their studies at home and would fare badly in examinations. So no exams. What this has done is to give a permanent holiday to teachers because now they have no need to teach anything because no one can judge what the children know. Programme for International Students Assessment tests 15 year old children in reading, maths and science. In 2009 India came 73rd out of 74 countries, just above Kyrgyzstan but below Trindad and Tobago with a population of just 135, 000, less than that of a small town in India. So the Congress did not allow any child to appear in the test in 2012 and has said that India will not participate in 2015 either. Not only that the Congress has cut the education budget by Rs 40 billion to reduce fiscal deficit which has ballooned because of the wasteful social programs. After all children do not vote, do they? On the other hand a report by Credit Suisse says the 3,600 top companies in India have a debt of $400 billion and have difficulty in paying back because of the fall in the value of the rupee. 80% of loans are in companies which have not paid any interest in 4 quarters in the last 2 years and 26% in companies that have not paid interest in 8 consecutive quarters. Robbing our children to fill their own pockets. Wonderful.

Will we get a proper government this time round?

Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have had their say. In a couple of days it will be Delhi's turn as we vote to elect the next state government. In the other 3 states it was a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP but in Delhi the Aam Aadmi Party or AAP is the joker in the pack. People are sick of constantly rising prices of utilities, horrific crimes, especially against women, and a brutal police force more interested in protecting criminal politicians than serving the people. Crime is born from corruption. Delhi has the misfortune of being the only city in India with both a state government and the central government. The state government was involved in the Commonwealth Games scam which brought us shame across the world. Roads were repaired a couple of months ago in anticipation of the elections but potholes have returned. During this one month electricity demand is at its lowest because air conditioners and fans have been switched off and it is not cold enough for heaters. Still we suffer periodic blackouts. We only get to know of very few of the numerous scams. One was the theft of Rs 200 million from the money for building night shelters for the homeless. The Delhi Anti Corruption Branch tried to suppress the crime but it was exposed by the Vigilance Commission. From 2G to Coal mine allocation to Tetra trucks to Augusta-Westland helicopters the political gangs constituting the central government have been very busy collecting trillions of rupees. Some of that money will probably be invested in winning parliamentary elections in May next year so that they can continue to collect more moolah while thwarting investigations by the CBI. Already one party has been distributing bottles of alcohol in poorer parts of Delhi while another one has been distributing 10 kg sacks of flour for women and alcohol for men. Many hundreds of billions of rupees will be spent till May next year. Whether this will provide a stimulus to the economy or merely increase inflation only time will tell. There is a chance of a hung assembly in Delhi. The AAP is saying that it will refuse to form a coalition with either the Congress and the BJP as they are equally corrupt. That will mean President's rule with reelections in 6 months. The Congress will try everything to prevent elections in Delhi coinciding with the national ones because of the Modi factor. Will they support an AAP government just to keep the BJP out? We can only hope that these elections will be more than an entertaining circus.

The emperor has no clothes.

The bottom watchers are back in business. The economy is said to have grown by 4.8% in the second quarter of the current financial year, after growing by 4.4% in the first quarter, the lowest in 4 years. So, the economy must have bottomed out. Agriculture grew by 4.6% due to fantastic monsoons and manufacturing grew by 3.2%. However, growth in manufacturing has been -0.1% between April and September. Unnamed sources were unimpressed. " How is revival possible when the jobs-creating sector is flat," said one. " The agriculture growth achieved in the first half of 2013-14 is just about long term average. It is hard to be excited about data released today." Our most revered Finance Minister is having none of this. " I am absolutely confident that we can overcome this period of stress and return to high growth path. In 2014-15, our growth will be close to 6%. In 2015-16, it will be close to 7% and a year after we will be back to high growth rate of 8%," he said. The Congress has increased taxes to unbearable levels and invented new ones but very cleverly it has not levied a tax on hot air. Being a lawyer by trade he is extremely slick with words. What does " close to " mean? Is 5 close to 6, or 4 or 2? He is setting a high bar for the next government while leaving it with a huge fiscal deficit by rolling over $15 billion of expenditure to the next financial year.
Cunning or what? Trouble is when you spend on unproductive social schemes while cutting expenditure on vital infrastructure inflation rises, tax receipts fall due to falling domestic consumption and growth dives. Increasing taxes only reduces demand further. The result is runaway fiscal deficit. The government has achieved 84.4% of its target deficit for this fiscal between April and October, that is in just 7 months. Tax receipts were just Rs 3.6 trillion while total expenditure was Rs 9.2 trillion and deficit Rs 4.57 trillion. But there is also the Current Account Deficit. By reducing gold imports through high taxes and increased exports due to the weak rupee CAD is expected to fall to below 4% this year. When premium petrol was first introduced it was Rs 3 more expensive than ordinary petrol but huge taxes increased the difference to Rs 10 so motorists stopped using it. The government has realised that premium petrol increases mileage and cuts consumption of oil so now they are thinking of reducing excise duty by Rs 5. The Congress has destroyed the economy and is frantically looking for excuses. Sadly there are none.

Will the rupee be sacrificed to save banks?

The Reserve Bank has published its concerns over the amount and quality of bank lending. In a report it says," In the past, growth in sensitive sectors - viz real estate, capital markets and commodities - generally followed a pattern similar to the growth in overall credit. However, in 2012-13, growth in credit to sensitive sectors almost doubled primarily on account of credit to real estate. This expansion needs to be seen in light of rise in housing prices in all Tier I and Several Tier II cities in 2012-13." Real estate, the share market and commodities are called sensitive because prices in these sectors are very volatile and the RBI is especially concerned about the enormous bubble in property prices. 15.9% of bank credit is in properties. The quality of loans is also deteriorating as shown by a 37% rise in Corporate Debt Restructuring. Public sector banks will need an additional capital of Rs 4.15 trillion of which Rs 1.5 trillion will be in equity capital and the rest will be in debt capital. The government has already infused Rs 477 billion and promised an additional Rs 140 billion. When the government is borrowing trillions from banks where will it find the money to fund the banks? Borrow with one hand while lending with the other, joke or mystery? Even greater worry is because banks are using short term deposits to lend long term. Since all government figures are suspect we probably do not know the real extent of the stink. The Congress forgave all bank loans to farmers in 2008 to win elections in 2009. Farmers have spent Rs 2 trillion on the Kisan Credit Card which they have no intention of repaying. In an article in the Hindustan Times, Samar Halarnkar writes about how, in 2002, a bunch of journalists had looked into how billionaires refused to repay billions of rupees to banks. He cites the example of Pramod Mittal, younger brother of steel billionaire, Lakshmi Mittal, who refused to repay Rs 60 billion he owed to banks. In 2011 Pramod Mittal arranged a lavish wedding for his daughter in a palace in Istanbul in Turkey. In 2002 unpaid loans amounted to Rs 1.1 trillion which is Rs 3 trillion in today's money, enough to build an expressway in every state and a school in every village. While banks send thugs to snatch a car if we miss a couple of EMIs they are happily writing of billions from the robber barons. No doubt politicians and civil servants get their shares. Banks cannot collapse because the government will print money to capitalise them. But the rupee will.

Whoever wins the elections, we the people lose.

The Congress is infuriated with Hong Kong based securities house, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets for predicting a victory for the BJP with Narendra Modi as their Prime Ministerial candidate. They say that the BJP will win a total of 202 seats in all of India and have given a breakdown of how many seats the BJP will win in each state. Should the BJP win that many seats other political gangs, which are abusing the BJP as a Hindu party so as to get " minority " votes, will come wagging their tails to be included in government. We know that contrary to what they swear on their mothers politicians in India are not in it to serve their country but to multiply their wealth several fold. The Congress is especially desperate because a defeat not only means the end of trillion rupee scams but they seem to be genuinely afraid of Modi. He is unmarried, has no children and is not known to possess accounts in foreign banks. What if he decides to go after their crimes? Despite their control of the CBI and other agencies how do they control him? So they have decided to use any amount of taxpayer money to bribe voters, never mind if the fiscal deficit balloons to 6,7 or even 10% of the GDP. They are devising new social schemes everyday. Not content with a recommendation of increasing NREGA handouts in line with the rural CPI they have asked the committee to increase it even further. Apparent cost Rs 330 billion. Trouble is that people get used to bribes and demand even more. So now they are planning to waste Rs 750 billion on assisting business start-ups in rural areas. Sugar mills in UP will be provided with interest free bank loans so that they pay farmers a price higher than the market rate. Road construction companies will have their contracts restructured so that they have to pay less premium, although why anyone should pay a premium for constructing roads is not explained.  However, what the Congress absolutely cannot afford is a ratings downgrade before the elections because of a rising deficit. But what spending to cut without losing votes? They have decided to cut education spending. Probably because children do not vote. This when our manufacturers are unable to find trained manpower to run their machines. The country is slowly going bankrupt. Whoever wins, we lose.

God did not make us poor, taxes do.

The OECD, a group of developed countries, predicts that India will grow at a mere 3.4% this fiscal which is even lower than that of the IMF which sees growth at 3.7%. The report mentions many reasons, including high fiscal deficit, high corporate debt levels and very high inflation. Uncontrolled inflation over the last several years has reduced the purchasing power of the middle class. The Wholesale Price Index rose 7% in October from 6.46% in September while the Consumer Price Index was 10.09% in October from 9.84% in September. When prices of essential commodities rise to untenable levels people cut down on discretionary spending which reduces profits of companies who cut down on new investments, leading to lower employment opportunities. A study by the industry body, Assocham shows that there has been " de-growth " in the capital goods sector and contraction in several other sectors of the economy. Secretary General, DS Rawat said," It would take quite a while before fresh investment can be expected, as even if a positive territory is found, it has to first absorb the surplus capacity with the industry before a demand-driven in investment is expected." The Congress says that inflation is because supplies have been unable to keep up with demand which has shot up because people have become so rich due to its policies. Er, no. Inflation has exploded because of useless social spending by the Congress, purely to win elections, which has resulted in massive fiscal deficits. The Congress thinks that the NREGA scheme was a great help in winning elections in 2009 so it has decided to increase it even further this time round. A committee under Pronab Sen, Chairman of the National Statistical Commission suggested the rural CPI should be taken to calculate any increase in the handouts but has been told to increase it even further. The Congress has set aside Rs 330 billion for the scheme. To prevent a credit downgrade to junk status before the elections the Congress has increased taxes to punitive levels. A World Bank and PWC report says that total corporate tax rate in India is 62.8% and taxes have to be paid under 33 headings. The report puts India at 158th position on taxes. High taxes make everything expensive and unaffordable. That is why India is poor. And will stay poor.

Proud of being third class.

On the face of it no one else could have killed 14 year old schoolgirl, Aarushi Talwar on the night of 15 May, 2008, except her parents. There were 4 people inside the house and according to the testimony of the maid, Bharti Mandal the outer grill door made of iron was locked from inside and Nupur Talwar, the mother said that Hemraj, the servant had locked it from outside when he had gone to fetch milk. That was a lie because Hemraj was lying dead on the terrace and the door to the terrace was locked from inside. The door to Aarushi's room was equipped with a click-lock which could not be opened from outside without a key and her father, Rajesh had the key with him. Aarushi's body had been washed and the murder weapon, a golf club was hidden in the attic. The Talwars refused to unlock the door to the terrace, thus concealing Hemraj's body. Curiously Noida Police did not demand the key or break the lock. The police in Noida did not secure the crime scene, did not make proper notes of the evidence and allowed media people to walk all over the house, thus destroying evidence. The Talwars are both dentists, wealthy and apparently well connected so they have tried every which way to derail the investigation and the trial. And they nearly succeeded. In 2011 the CBI applied to close the case but the Special Judicial Magistrate, Priti Singh turned down their application, forcing them to prosecute the Talwars resulting in conviction. The Talwars have been insisting that they were innocent and that Aarushi and Hemraj had been killed by an outsider without explaining why an outsider would want to kill a 14 year old girl and a servant and how the person gained access to Aarushi's room without breaking the door. Nothing was taken so robbery could not have been a motive. This case has aroused fierce debate because the victim is seen to be an innocent child, because the police did everything to vitiate the case and because the parents came across as cold and calculating. Anyone whose only child has been brutally murdered would be distraught with grief but the Talwars showed no emotion. On the other side people say that they have been set up because the judge refused to accept closure. Will the conviction stand. Highly unlikely. In India well connected people are seldom punished. The sad thing is that the Noida Police is boasting about its work. So proud to be third rate.