How far is 'near term'?

In the 'State of the Economy' article in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) October Bulletin, "RBI officials said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and targeted policy interventions were helping cushion India against external shocks, even as geopolitical conflicts and disruptions to global supply chains posed fresh economic risks." "India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.8% in the first quarter of FY2026-27." News18. That being so, why is the rupee dropping in value, hitting our purchasing power, despite RBI's frantic efforts? "RBI had introduced a special USD-INR Forex Swap facility covering FCNR (B) deposits, ECB and OFCB inflows on June 08, 2026." rbi.org.in. The FCNR (B) scheme collected $127.226 billion and was closed on 31 August. The other two will run till 31 December 2026. After the opening of the scheme, India's foreign exchange reserves climbed to $671.63 billion in the week ended 19 June 2026 but fell to $666.93 billion a week later 26 June."  As on 14 September, "India's foreign exchange reserves have reached a record $785.7 billion, helping the country to climb to the fourth spot among the world's largest reserve holders." NDTV. It has been declining ever since as the RBI has been selling dollars to support the rupee. "India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $5 billion to $721.02 billion in the week ended 16 October, according to RBI data." ET. The surprising thing is that, "Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday (June 5, 2026) said the forex reserve stood at a healthy $682.3 billion, adequate to provide import cover for about 11 months." "Observing that India successfully negotiated the challenges of elevated tariffs and trade related uncertainties in 2025-26 amid turbulent global economic environment, he said the surge in energy prices and persistent trade policy uncertainties continue to pose upside risks to India's current account deficit in 2026-27." But, "Services trade surplus and inward remittances are expected to provide some comfort." The Hindu. If India had "successfully negotiated" all challenges and the reserves were healthy on 05 June, what could have happened in three days for the RBI to resort to a panicked nuclear option on 08 June? On 1 September, "India's current account deficit widened marginally in the April-June quarter from a year ago on the back of higher commodity prices and a wider trade gap," to $4.2 billion, or 0.5% of GDP, "compared with a revised deficit of $3.4 billion, or 0.4% of GDP, a year earlier, the RBI data showed." "In the preceding quarter, the current account had recorded a surplus of $6.5 billion. The current account is expected to widen in the second and third quarter of the year, with full year gap at close 0.9% of GDP, Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said." Reuters. On 21 October, "India should allow the dollar-rupee exchange to move as the first line of defence amid the ongoing oil shock, an IMF official said." "The RBI has intervened heavily to support the rupee via dollar sales from its reserves," so that, "The rupee, which fell to near record levels earlier this month has rebounded about 2%." "Foreign-exchange interventions have not been particularly beneficial beyond the near term due to the oil shock, Srinivasan said." Reuters. "India should resist the temptation to defend the rupee at any cost, even if it means allowing the currency to weaken further, former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said on 27 October." ET. So what "near term" is the government looking at? May be banking on Benjamin Netanyahu losing the general election in Israel and the next prime minister negotiating a peace deal with Iran. Alas, "Israel's exit polls reversed overnight on Tuesday, projecting Prime Minister Banjamin Netanyahu as having a narrow lead over on his main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. HT. The other hope: "With just a week left for the US midterm elections, betting markets suggest that President Donald Trump's Republican Party could lose control of Congress." TOI. Democrats hate Trump and support Palestinians and so will cut military aid to Israel. Oil prices will fall and the rupee will bounce, enabling the RBI to buy dollars back. Keeping the rupee strong till February-March, when Assembly elections are to be held in very important states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur (wikipedia), may help to suppress the prices of imports, especially oil. Inflation is an election loser. And so, it's support rupee "at any cost". But is February in the "near term"?