Tuesday, March 31, 2026

We have seen worse.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...said the country's economic fundamentals are strong, and compared to other emerging market economies, the Indian rupee is 'absolutely going fine' against the US dollar." DH. "The Finance Ministry's March Monthly Economic Review noted that economic activity remained robust up to February, supported by strong supply- and demand-side indicators, resilient domestic consumption, and sustained public capital expenditure." But, the Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran warned that "signs of moderation are beginning to emerge as shocks from the Israel-Iran conflict ripple through the economy." ET. "The #Lockdown is trending across India on social media platform X, with users expressing anxiety." and "some posts draw parallels with the 2016 demonetisation, others show long queues outside petrol pumps, fueling concerns of panic buying." ET. On 8 November 2016, the same day our BFF Donald Trump won his first term as President by defeating Hillary Clinton (wikipedia), Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes were banned, as "Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave only four hours' notice that virtually all the cash in the world's seventh-largest economy would be effectively worthless" (BBC). This led to very long queues outside banks (shutterstock.com) and some died of heart attacks while waiting to exchange old notes for new ones (TNIE) probably due to stress. At 8 pm on 24 March 2020, Mr Modi announced a stringent lockdown with just 4 hours notice (cbc.ca), when there were only 519 confirmed cases of coronavirus with nine deaths at the time, causing great hardship for the citizens of India (BBC). In panic, people crammed into shops to buy essentials (The Quint), which could have spread the virus to a larger peopulation. As migrant workers lost their jobs and all public transport stopped, millions of families with little children were forced to walk hundreds of miles back to their villages, sleeping by the roadside and surviving on food and water from local people. TOI. The government did nothing. Following lockdown, from April 2020-January 2021, India's combined merchandise and services exports were $394.96 billion, 10.89% lower than $443.24 billion in the same period in 2019-20, while combined imports were $400.84 billion in 2020-21, 22.10% lower than $514.57 billion in 2019-20. Trade deficit fell from $71.33 billion to $5.88 billion. pib.gov.in. When Russia-Ukraine conflict started in February 2014 (wikipedia) there were predictions of a rise in inflation as supplies of oil, fertilizers and minerals would be adversely affected (grm.institute). In the event, India's exports to Russia increased from $1.8 billion in 2011-12 to $3.3 billion in 2021-22, while imports increased from $4.8 billion in 2011-12 to $9.9 billion in 2021-22. Trade with Ukraine increased from $3 billion to $3.4. India Exim Bank. Taking advantage of deep discounts offered by Russia, India imported crude oil worth $144 billion since the start of the conflict. NDTV. Covid lasted two years. Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. Yet, after only one month of the Iran conflict people are hysterical. Collective idiocy?        

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