Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Penalized for right policies.

"Andhra Pradesh CM N Chandrababu Naidu called on people in southern states to have more children, citing concerns about an ageing population." ET. "The state government is thinking of bringing a law that would make only those with more than two children eligible to contest local body elections," he said. "Govt may provide more benefits to families with more children." "Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin has encouraged the state's residents to consider having more children following a similar suggestion by Mr Naidu." ET. Quoting an old Tamil saying which suggests "people should have 16 different types of wealth", he asked, "Why shouldn't we aim for 16 children?" "In 1971, the country's total fertility rate (TFR) was at 5.2. That is on average, 100 women had 520 children during their child-bearing years. By 1991 this had come down to 3.6." "Between March 1991 and March 2011, the country grew at 6.2% per year. In the two decades before March 1991, the country had grown at 4.3%," wrote Vivek Kaul. "TFR has fallen significantly below the threshold of 2.1 - considered the replacement level value at which the population maintains itself - in states such as Tamil Nadu (1.76), Andhra Pradesh ((1.68) and Kerala (1.79), but is still much higher in states such as Bihar (2.98) and Uttar Pradesh (2.35), according to the National Family and Health Survey (NHFS)." "TFR, both across countries and Indian states, has a strong correlation with per capita incomes, and falls with rising incomes," wrote Roshan Kishore & Abhishek Jha. Lower fertility rate creates wealth. However, it may not be just an ageing population that is bothering Messrs Naidu and Stalin. Perhaps, Mr Stalin "was alluding to the delimitation exercise due in 2026 where states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala that have done well to control their population are likely to lose their clout in terms of representation in Parliament compared to their more populous northern brethren." "The southern states are united in their opposition to the exercise being carried out purely based on population." "Whatever be the decision, states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and to a lesser extent Karnataka, are seeing fertility rates declining rapidly," wrote Sumanth Raman. At present Uttar Pradesh has 80 seats in the Lok Sabah and Bihar has 40, higher than any of the southern states. eci.gov.in. If the total number of seats in the Lok Sabha stays the same at 543, then the southern states will lose 23-25 seats, while the five most populous states _ UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and MP - will gain 33-35 seats. If the total strength of the Lok Sabha is increased to 790 seats, the southern states will gain just 23 seats while the five large states will gain 150 seats. TOI. The southern states lose anyway. Colonialism by the Hindiwallahs. Worrying.        

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