Sunday, October 20, 2024

Choice between degrowth and disinflation.

"The International Monetary Fund warned that wars, trade tensions, high debt and low growth threaten to prolong a lackluster economic era and leave nations without the resources to reduce poverty and confront climate change. Higher consumer prices globally, conflict in the Middle East and Europe, and 'far from good enough' medium-term growth prospects are reasons to be cautious despite an expected economic soft- landing, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva." ET. National leaders want the gross domestic product (GDP) to go on increasing, "But recently, an alternative term has begun taking root in popular culture and policy: 'degrowth'." Professor of Philosophy at the University of Tokyo, Kohei Saito has written a book Slow Down: The Degrowth Manifesto. "The idea, he noted, applies mostly to the Global North, where production and consumption have come to exceed basic needs in ways that harm the environment." ET. No degrowth for India. "The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel continues to expect the Indian Economy to grow at 7.2% in FY25." ET. That would make India the fastest growing major economy but, in 2018, "The Working Group tasked to develop a road map towards achieving a 5 trillion dollar economy by 2025 has prepared its report and it is being circulated to the stakeholders for further suggestions." pib.gov.in. So, full steam ahead. "The ECB cut its key deposit rate by a quarter-point to 3.25% and noted the process of taming prices should be complete 'in the course of next year'." "The move follows a slump in inflation to below 2% for the first time since 2021." ET. In the UK, "The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices rose 1.7% in September, down from 2.2% the previous month," "But price pressures were lower across the board, even in the services sector, which has worried policymakers as it accounts for around 80% of the British economy." AP. "For the sixth consecutive month, the US annual inflation rate fell, from 2.5% in August to 2.4% in September 2024," but "the annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes items such as food and energy, edged higher to 3.3% in September...ahead of the market expectations that it would stay at 3.2%." FE. "Interest rate cut at this stage will be premature and very very risky," said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. "India's growth story remains intact. Growth is resilient." ET. "Deglobalisation, rearmament, de-dollarisation, aging demographics, climate change and the energy transition will continue to put upward pressure on inflation over the coming years," said Sokoloff. Gold "has risen nearly 30%. It is telling us, says the veteran analyst, that four decades of disinflation are over and bonds are in a long-term secular bear market. Inflation is not dead, just resting." Reuters. Economic growth will increase consumption and lead to higher inflation. Without growth there will be little money for efforts to reduce climate change. The only way may be to reduce the number of people on the planet. Quickly.    

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