Monday, October 21, 2024

Net value added of workers.

"The number of individuals declaring over Rs 10 million as taxable income has surged, increasing fivefold from 44,078 in assessment year (AY) 2013-14 to nearly 230,000 in AY 2023-24." "During this period, the number of individual tax returns filed grew over 2.2 times from 33 million to 75 million, according to the latest data from the tax department." ET. That is reflected in, "India's billionaire count crossed the triple century mark," as "This year's Hurun Rich List includes 1,539 individuals with a net worth of Rs 1 billion or more - an increase of 220 from last year, and with 272 new entrants." TOI. These are the fortunate few. "Earnings of workers have grown by 5.4% since 2018-19, which has barely kept pace with consumer price inflation." The average monthly salary of the privileged salaried class was a modest 21,103 per month in the fourth quarter of 2023-24, but "it was still better than the Rs 433 earned per day by a casual laborer and Rs 13,900 (per month) by a self-employed worker." The Annual Survey of Industries shows that "the share of labor in the net value added (NVA) in the organized factory sector has been slipping." "The flip side of a lower share of labor income in NVA is a higher share of profits," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. Higher tax collections mean more money for our rulers to enjoy more junkets. Meanwhile, "Private banks continue to see a rise in stress in small-ticket advances including microfinance, credit cards and personal loans in the second quarter of the fiscal year." "Axis Bank's gross slippages jumped 36% year-on-year to Rs 44.43 billion, led by unsecured loans." "Kotak Mahindra Bank, too, saw slippages worth Rs 18.75 billion at the end of the September quarter, up...42% year-on-year." Mint. Household debt has increased from "30% of GDP in March 2015 to 38% in March 2023 and to around 40.1% currently." "A household faced with an increasing burden of interest payments, and no additional sources of income (or increases to income), will be forced to cut back on expenditure. If this happens on a large enough scale, companies will see weak consumption reflected in their revenue and profits, and ultimately in their willingness to invest in new capacities." Mint. Falling household spending will mean stagnant goods and services tax (GST) collection and fewer jobs will mean fewer people paying income tax. "The economic backdrop of Japan in the late 1980s appears broadly closer to the current Indian context," wrote V Thiagarajan. "Back then, the Japanese economy boomed, driven by exuberance in the equity markets and skyrocketing real estate prices." "Domestic investors continued to leverage through borrowings and poured money into what was then emerging as the world's biggest equity pool." "By design or by default, Indian policymakers appear to have taken a leaf out of the Japanese experience." Must be by default. Because who will tell Dear Leader?  

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