It'll be as usual.

"Foreign investors have poured Rs 573.59 billion into Indian equities in September, making it the highest inflow in nine months, mainly driven by a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve," and "With this infusion, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) investment in equities has surpassed the Rs 1 trillion mark in 2024, data showed." BT. "Investors turned richer by $7 trillion after Friday's (20 Sept) rally as FIIs (foreign institutional investors) invested a provisional Rs 140.6405 billion - the eighth highest in a single day since FIIs started investing in Indian markets. Of this Rs 70-80 billion was on account of investment by global passive funds, and the rest because of active buying." Mint. "Global companies and financial sponsors are keen to keep exploring both mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings as they seek to tap into the country's economic growth according to top executives from JP Morgan Chase & Co." ET. "When the global economy is caught in geopolitical trends and slow growth and there is a lot of noise about recession, the world is cheering India's growth story." CEO of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon thinks India can become a $7 trillion economy by the end of the decade because Prime Minister Narendra Modi is "strong". ET. "Bajaj Housing Finance recently entered the primary market with an initial public offering (IPO) aiming to raise Rs 65.60 billion, but drew bids exceeding Rs 3.2 trillion." Similarly, PN Gadgil Jewellers wanted to raise Rs 11 billion but got bids of over Rs 480 billion, Saraswati Saree Depot wanted Rs 1.6 billion but got Rs 170 billion and Boss Solutions wanted Rs 80 million but got bids of nearly Rs 11 billion. These companies are unlikely to generate high returns, so why such a frenzy of bids? Probably because, "The large sums of money chasing IPOs tells us that these investors do not see other viable investment opportunities available to them," wrote Vivek Kaul. "A total of 10 new age companies have made their stock market debuts so far," but there were "just three startups listed on the exchanges in 2022, followed by five last year." "The number of unique mutual fund investors has swelled from 22 million in March 2020 to 47 million as of June 2024," and "the number of unique demat (dematerialised or digital) account holders has ballooned from 36 million as of March 2020 to nearly 100 million now." This has resulted in a flood of liquidity. Usually demand falls as prices rise but in stocks, "When the price of a stock goes up, demand rises too, especially during a bull market," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. As prices rise, it draws in more investors eager to make a quick return and this leads to a further rise in prices, drawing in more investors. This is a naturally occurring Ponzi Scheme wrote Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Schiller, wrote Kaul. According to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), 91% of individuals lost money in F&O trading in 2023-24. "Proprietors traders earned about Rs 330 billion of gross profits in the F&O segment in 2023-24, followed by FIIs, who earned about Rs 280 billion in gross profits. Individuals and others incurred a loss of Rs 610 billion in 2023-24," Money is finite. India's nominal GDP or GDP at current prices was estimated at Rs 295.36 trillion in 2023-24. pib.gov.in. It looks huge but isn't much when divided by a population of 1.454 billion (worldometer). At some point individuals will run out of cash. Professionals will walk away with huge profits. Brokers and fund managers will be arrested. Politicians will lecture. As usual.    

Our biggest export.

"With his government's flagship 'Make in India' initiative completing 10 years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday (yesterday) said India has become a manufacturing powerhouse and it is because of the county's youth power that the 'whole world is looking up at us'." ET. "India has an ambitious target of exporting goods worth $1 trillion USD by 2030, said Anand Mohan Mishra, Joint Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) of Coimbatore, during a seminar." TNIE. "Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) to the govt V Ananatha Nageswaran...said the Indian Economy is expected to grow at a rate of 6.5-7% in the current financial year on a steady state basis. TOI. "India's forex reserves jumped by USD 2.838 billion to a new all-time high of USD 692.296 billion for the week ended September 20, the RBI said." Foreign currency assets increased by USD 2.057 billion to USD 605.686 billion. PTI. However, underneath the good news there is a lot of anxiety. "China's aggressive exports and predatory pricing have badly hit manufacturers and exporters in industries including pharma, electronics, paper, steel, solar equipment, chemicals, rubber products and plastics." "Despite the ultra-low prices of goods, India's imports from China rose 15.5% to $10.8 billion in August and exports declined 22% to $1 billion." DC. "India's merchandise exports are facing a serious slump, with no real prospect of a meaningful recovery in the medium term. Shipments shrank 3.1% in FY24, a rarity for an emerging economy like India." "The contraction in exports was 9.3% in August, the sharpest since July 2023, precipitating a 10-month high trade deficit of close to $30 billion in the month, and causing worries on the current account front to re-emerge." FE. "With a 7% economic growth, India is not creating enough jobs as reflected by the number of applicants for vacant posts in some states, Prof Raghuram Rajan said." "According to him, the industries that are more capital-intensive are growing faster, but labor-intensive industries are not growing." BS. "Agriculture had seen a sharp decline of workers since 2004 for the first time in India's post-independence history. This was because non-farm work grew sharply till 2012, at 7.5 million non-farm jobs per annum." "However, not only has agriculture's share gone up to 45% or higher over 2020-23, but 2023-24 has seen a further increase in workers in agriculture, to 46.1% of India's workforce," wrote Prof Santosh Mehrotra. Agricultural work is poorly paid. There has been a sharp increase of 12% in Indian students studying in France, according to Campus France. Apparently, job prospects are better after a degree from France. FPJ. The number of Indian students in Europe is rising "not just for the quality of education but also for the work-life balance and attractive salaries." "While traditional programs in Information Technology (IT) and Pharmaceuticals remain popular due to the excellent career prospects they offer, there has been a notable shift towards unconventional disciplines such as Fashion, Branding and Luxury." India Today. In short, anything to get out of India. And not come back. Indians are our biggest export.        

Traitors make it easy.

"Israel's military said...that it killed Hassan Nasrallah, the overall leader of the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, in a Friday (27 Sept) airstrike in Beirut Lebanon. The militant group confirmed Nasrallah's death, saying its longtime leader 'has joined his fellow martyrs." "The afternoon strike carried out by fighter jets, targeted the group's 'central headquarters,' which were 'embedded under a residential building' in Beirut's northern suburbs, according to the Israeli Defense Forces." CBS. "Nasrallah's killing in a command HQ...came barely a week after Israel's deadly detonation of hundreds of booby-trapped pagers and radios." "One source familiar with Israeli thinking told Reuters, less than 24 hours before the strike, that Israel has spent 20 years focusing on intelligence efforts on Hebollah and could hit Nasrallah when it wanted, including in the headquarters. The person called the intelligence 'brilliant,' without providing details." Reuters. Earlier this month, Israel exposed how Iran planned to kill Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders. "The core plot was to use an Israeli businessman named Moti Maman, from Ashkelon who spent an extravagant lifestyle in Turkey and had financial dealings with both Turkish and Iranian people." ET. This was to have been in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran's capital Tehran in the early hours of 31 July. He was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and "Iranian state media IRNA reported that an 'airborne guided projectile' had targeted the building at around 2 a.m. local time." CNN. On 19 and 20 September, "At least 32 people, including two children, were killed and thousands more injured, many seriously, after communication devices, some used by the armed group Hezbollah, dramatically exploded across Lebanon." Exploding walkie-talkies killed 20 and injured at least 450 people "in the vicinity of a large crowd that had gathered for the funerals of four victims of (the previous day's) simultaneous pager blasts, which killed at least 12 people and injured nearly 3,000." BBC. Attacks by Israel highlight how unpopular the Iranian government and its proxy, Hezbollah, are so that there are people ready to betray them at the risk of torture and death. Secondly, leaders of Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah do not care how many innocent civilians, including children, are killed or maimed as they are used as human shields. They callously use the suffering of civilians as propaganda, aided by an anti-Semitic Western media terrified of being accused of Islamophobia. Hamas could stop most of the Israeli attacks by releasing the remaining hostages, 97 of whom remain unaccounted for. "According to Israel, 251 hostages were kidnapped on 7 October 2023, of which 101 are still being held by Hamas, including four people taken hostage in 2014 and 2015, of whom two are believed to have died. BBC. Unless the West stops being compliant with these depraved, cowardly, subhuman criminals the fighting will continue. Innocents will die. Children will be maimed. Both physically and psychologically. For life.       

The biggest diaspora.

In the next 10 years, "While the traditional superpower, the US, remains the dominant military, political and economic superpower," "India ranks seventh among global superpowers and is set the achieve the fastest real GDP growth over the next decade." According to S&P Global, India will become the world's third largest economy with its GDP doubling from $3.6 trillion 2023-24 to $7 trillion by 2030-31. TIE. In India, "E-commerce was supposed to replace the brick-and-mortar retail," "But the new consumption trend of premiumisation, where consumers are willing to splurge on expensive items, is bringing back brick-and-mortar retail in the shape of high-end shopping malls where customers can touch and feel high-value products and have a superior shopping experience." "For instance, over 70% of the new products launched by Hindustan Unilever (HUL), India's largest consumer goods company, over the past two years in the premium segment." ET. "The net worth of Indian households has reached a record 157% of GDP in the first quarter of FY25," primarily due to investments in mutual funds and equity. "However, there is a concerning rise in households debt, which now stands at 42% of GDP according to a report by Motilal Oswal." TOI. "India is not dependent on China Plus One," but "has made tremendous strides in manufacturing," due to the "Make in India initiative, launched on September 25, 2014," said Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal. Despite increased manufacturing and wealth, "The level of overdue credit card payments has been steadily rising," so that "In June 2024, the outstanding amount on credit cards was nearly Rs 2.7 trillion," compared to Rs 2 trillion in March 2023 and Rs 876.86 billion in March 2019, "indicating a 24% compound annual growth rate of over five years." ET. According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), "India's annual unemployment rate was flat between 2022-23 and 2023-24 at 3.2%." But the share of unpaid family work has risen from 62 million, 12.8% of the labor force, in 2017-18 to 117.9 million, 18.8% of the labor force, in 2023-24. Of the new 56 million unpaid family workers, 88% were in agriculture, wrote Roshan Kishore & Abhishek Jha. No wonder, according to the World Migration Report 2022, "Just under 17.9 million born in the country were recorded as living overseas as of the mid-year." The biggest diaspora in the world. The Wire. In the US, "As per Layoffs.fyi, over 438 tech companies have laid off approximately 137,500 employees." "It has hit Indian workers, particularly those on H1B visas, the hardest." TOI. Poor Indians. Not wanted at home. Not wanted abroad.

Advice from critics.

"On September 25, the country observed 10 years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's game-changing 'Make in India' initiative that is transforming India's industrial landscape by encouraging job-creating investments," so that "The world is now looking at India as a manufacturing destination. And the key reason is India's own competitive advantage and robust economic fundamentals," wrote Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal. "The unemployment rate in the country for those in the 15 years and above category remained unchanged at 3.2% in 2023-24," according to the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS). The labor force participation rate (LFPR) for women rose to 41.7% from 37%, while that for men rose to 78.8% from 78.5% in 2022-23. Youth unemployment for 15-29 years ago group rose minimally 10.2% from 10%. TOI. LFPR is a measure of those already working or actively looking for jobs. Investopedia. "The number of Indian households with an annual income of more than Rs 3 million ($35,885) per annum will increase by 113 million by the financial year 2031," while "the number of middle-class households having an income between Rs 0.5-1 million annually will also increase by 283 million," according to U Grow Capital. ET. Of course, household income is not the same as per capita income which is a measure of income per person. Investopedia. A bit of propaganda is always useful. According to the World Bank, rich countries have a gross national income (GNI) per capita of over $14,005, poor countries have a GNI per capita of less than $1,145, lower middle income countries are at $1,146-4,515, while upper middle income countries are at $4,516-14,005. "With a per capita income of around $2,400, India is among the lower middle-income countries." "At the current growth rate, India will take 75 years to reach a quarter of America's per capita income." "In India, Mexico and Peru, firms that operate for 40 years typically double in size, while in the US, they grow seven-fold in the same period." With an ageing population, India may not escape the middle-income trap before it grows old. BBC. The Government of India provided a $10 billion subsidy for semiconductor manufacturing in India and will offer another $15 billion of "capital support for raw materials and gases used in chip manufacturing." TIE. However, "Micron's packaging plant in Gujarat is an example of what not to do." "Micron continues to fabricate chips in the US and China, leaving India to handle only the final stages of assembly, offering little in terms of technology transfer or advancement in high-value areas like chip design and fabrication," wrote Vivek Wadhwa. In short, Micron is treating Indians as coolies. "Would this money not be better spent in opening tens of thousands of high-quality primary schools, thousands of high quality high schools and hundreds of top-notch universities?" asked Prof Raghuram Rajan. The government should ask its critics what they think and whether it should do more, advised Prof Rajan. ET. Any criticism is anathema to this government and its legions of robotised Bhakts (DH). No one will volunteer to criticise. Be safe. Be a sycophant.  

Summons for summons.

"India has now surpassed Japan to become the third-largest power on the continent, according to the Asia Power Index." This is measured according to economic growth, future potential, diplomatic influence, cultural influence, multilateral diplomacy and economic outreach. "The Asia Power Index, launched by Lowy Institute in 2018," "evaluates 27 countries across the Asia-Pacific." Mint. "The Lowy Institute is an independent think-tank founded in 2003 by Frank Lowy," and "It is based in Sidney, Australia." wikipedia. The report reflects India's "increasing geopolitical stature, dynamic growth, youthful population and expanding economy," approved the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting. However, another foreign think-tank found, " India, which was downgraded to the status of an 'electoral autocracy' in 2018, has declined even further on multiple metrics to emerge as 'one of the worst autocratizers', according to the "Democracy Report 2024' released by the Gothenburg-based V-Dem Institute." The Hindu. As a proof of our power Home Minister Amit Shah, "while addressing a rally in Sahibganj district ahead of the assembly election in Jharkhand,..had said, 'I appeal to you to let the BJP form the government in Jharkhand. We will hang every Bangladeshi infiltrator upside down to give them a lesson'." Bangladesh lodged a "strong" protest against these "highly deplorable" remarks. ET. In response to a civil lawsuit filed by US citizen, Khalistani GS Pannun, "The US District Court for Southern District of New York, named the Government of India, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, former RAW Chief Samant Goel, in the summons." Nikhil Gupta and Vikram Yadav have also been included in the summons. ET. Vikram Yadav was apparently the RAW agent who hatched the plot to assassinate Pannun (Firstpost), for which poor Nikhil Gupta has been extradited from the Czech Republic to the US (TOI). Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to India on 25 September after a three-day visit to the United States. NDTV. But, PM Modi "broke the tradition by excluding his National Security Advisor Ajit Doval from his entourage for the visit to the United States," ostensibly "to deal with the security situation arising from the ongoing Jammu and Kashmir election and other 'domestic issues'." If a lowly US court can issue summons to our government why can't our courts issue summons to the US administration for harboring Khalistani Pannun who has been labeled a terrorist by India? Because, "Washington's experience shows that 'strongman' leaders do understand the language of coercion, and will compromise if that is what is needed for their political survival. Washington is administering 'shock and awe' hoping Modi will act on it," wrote MK Bhadrakumar. Mr Modi did not meet former President Donald Trump, even after Trump had announced he would meet Mr Modi at a rally in Michigan. Maybe because "Trump referred to India as an 'abuser' in terms of import tariffs." TN. What if Trump wins? We are the third-largest power in Asia. Let us issue our own summons. No compromise.    

Taylor Swift, Arsenal and Winter Fuel.

During his speech at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, the new prime minister of Britain Keir Starmer had a slip of tongue. In a moment of 'Spoonerism' (wikipedia), "While addressing the Gaza-Israel conflict, Starmer called for the return of 'the sausages' instead of 'the hostages'." ET. At the House of Commons, "The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, has announced that, from winter 2024/25, households in England and Wales will no longer be entitled to the Winter Fuel Payment unless they receive Pension Credit or certain other means tested benefits." "10.8 million pensioners in 7.6 million households" received the payment in 2023/24. "More than 700,000 pounds worth of free gifts and hospitality has been received by MPs in the past year for everything from Taylor Swift tickets to helicopter rides, new analysis reveals." "According to his parliamentary register of interests, the Labour leader received more than 65,000 pounds in gifts in the last year, including new clothes and accommodation funded by millionaire Labour peer Wahid Alli." The Guardian. Starmer's chief of staff Sue Gray, whose investigation into 'partygate' brought down the Conservative government of Boris Johnson, is receiving a salary of 170,000 pounds, 3,000 pounds more than Starmer himself. His wife has received dresses as gifts from Alli, and Starmer has received "thousands of pounds' worth of tickets for Premier League games involving Starmer's beloved Arsenal." ET. Starmer's net worth is apparently 7.7 million pounds, but he owns seven acres of land in Surrey worth 10 million pounds and is the joint owner with wife Victoria of their home in North London worth 1 million. The Herald. During their pre-election debate, Starmer accused Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of being too rich to understand the problems of ordinary citizens. CNBC. In June 2024, one month before the general election, "According to the Office for National Statistics, the average real household disposable income per person in the UK has decreased by 1% since 2019. But the couple's (Sunak) earnings have increased by 88% in real terms since the last election. Labour and Liberal Democrats, who believe that Sunak is disconnected from the challenges faced by the people amid the greatest cost-of-living crisis in a generation, have taken issue with this discrepancy." ET. In other words, Labour successfully converted the legitimate wealth of the Sunaks into a liability and this subterfuge earned them a landslide victory in the general election on 4 July 2024 with 411 seats out of a total of 650 seats in the House of Commons, an increase of 211 seats over the last election. wikipedia. Starmer warned the British people it will be "tough in the short term" but that there will be "light at the end of this tunnel". ET. He did not say how long and dark the tunnel will be. Meanwhile, we hope he enjoyed Arsenal's "dark arts" at Manchester City, which ended in a 2-2 draw (BBC), from a private box paid for by party donors. Starmer is a lawyer, a barrister at the Middle Temple (wikipedia). And so, he says he has done nothing wrong. ABC. Of course not. He knows the loopholes.       

Unwelcome is a blessing.

"India's billionaire count has reached a new milestone, with the country adding a billionaire every five days in the past year," as " The 2024 Hurun India Rich List reveals that India now has 334 billionaires, an increase of 75 compared to the last year." TOI. However, below that level, "Around 4,300 millionaires are projected to leave India and most likely choose the UAE as their destination," reported Henley and Partners, and "The report mentioned that in 2023 around 5,100 Indian millionaires relocated abroad." Mint. "However, in our view, these outflows are not particularly concerning as India continues to produce far more new high net worth individuals (HNWIs) than it loses to emigration," the report stated. But, "Something is amiss," wrote an editorial in the Mint. "Between July and August this year, there was a 37% increase in Indian purchases of real estate in Greece, including properties under construction." Some may be fleeing from insolvency proceedings or action to recover unpaid dues, but a higher proportion of millionaires are fleeing from India than from China, though "On the face of it, the Chinese have stronger reasons to leave their country than Indians do." Why? Probably because of the absolute power of the Indian government - politicians and civil servants - to destroy the live of citizens. Recently a video social media showed D Srinivasan, the owner of the popular Sri Annapoorna Hotel chain, apologizing to the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. The controversy stemmed from Srinivasan's remarks during the meeting, where he highlighted the GST's complexities. In the video, he was heard apologizing to Ms Sitharaman, saying "I do not belong to any party. Please excuse me." BT. In 2022, FM Sitharaman "found fault with the Telangana government for not displaying picture of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the fair price shops where rice is distributed to the people below poverty line free of cost." HT. During the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, BJP leader Sambit Patra said, "Lord Jagannath is a devotee of PM Modi." Mint. This deification of Mr Modi by BJP leaders, who depend on him to win elections, means that any criticism, however mild, risks violent retaliation. "The scare in the minds of companies caused by pressure exerted by the government in complete disregard of principles of business and the fear of raids they harbor make them dread to give any honest feedback to the government...Chairman of Rockefeller International, Ruchir Sharma's coinage of the term ICED (Income tax, CBI, ED) in the context of apprehensions and the horror writ large on Indian businesses over the last 10 years testify to the sad state of affairs plaguing our economy." The Wire. In 2021-22, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government in Delhi modified the excise policy and privatized alcohol shops in the city. Alcohol drinks became cheaper and government revenue increased by Rs 95 billion. wikipedia. However, both Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia were arrested by the dreaded Enforcement Directorate (ED) on charges of favoring private businesses in return for paybacks. No evidence has been produced and many of those arrested, including Kejriwal and Sisodia, are out on bail. Mint. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has modified excise duty recently, thereby reducing the cost of alcohol in Andhra Pradesh. ET. But not a peep out of the BJP. Because, Mr Modi failed to secure a majority in this year's Lok Sabha election and is depended on the 16 MPs of the TDP to hang on to power. EC. It is a blessing the Indian passport is ranked 80th in the world (Forbes), meaning Indians are unwelcome in most countries of the world. Or else, there would have been an exodus.

Misunderstanding parents.

"India is set to add $1 trillion to its GDP every 18 months over the next six years," as "India's accelerated growth will be driven primarily by the manufacturing sector, which is projected to contribute 32% to the incremental Gross Value Added (GVA)." ET. "India is on track to becoming the third-largest economy by 2030-31, driven by a projected annual growth rate of 6.7% this fiscal, S&P Global said in a report." BS. A few days back, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi accompanied by his Singapore counterpart Lawrence Wong...visited a leading Singaporean semiconductor company and signed an MOU on India-Singapore Semiconductor Ecosystem Partnership." The Indian Semiconductor Mission (ISM), which is a division of Digital India Corporation, is to receive a second dollop of $10 billion, having exhausted the first. ET. "India is set to establish its first national security semiconductor fabrication plant that will supply chips to the US armed forces, allied militaries, and Indian defense forces." A joint fact sheet said, "The fab which will be established with the objective of manufacturing infrared, gallium nitride and silicon carbide semiconductors, will be enabled by support from the ISM as well as strategic technology partnership between Bharat Semi, 3rdiTech, and the US Space Force." TOI. "The government might spend five times more on this sector than it does on support for solar panels or autos - and 50 times more than it plans for labor-intensive sectors such as leather goods." "Officials are at least aware that one of the biggest bottlenecks is the availability of engineers. If their plans are to come to fruition, they estimate they need between 10,000 and 13,000 trained workers by 2037," wrote Mihir Sharma. That is a minuscule number considering, "As of 2021, India annually produces 1.5 million engineering graduates. India's technical education infrastructure includes 2500 engineering colleges, 1400 polytechnics and 200 schools of planning and architecture." wikipedia. The problem is that, "Estimates show that about 51.25% of youth is deemed employable. In other words, about one in two are not readily employable, straight out of college," found the Economic Survey 2023-24. Mint. Out of the cream, "A recent analysis by the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), a US based think-tank" found that in the US, "India led the global pool of educated immigrants, constituting 2 million degree holders, or 14% of the total educated immigrant population." TOI. In addition to the qualified Indians, 13,35,875 Indian students are studying in 108 countries in 2024, including 4,27,000 in Canada and 3,37,630 in the US. India Today. In 2023-24, 49,483 Indian students were studying in Germany, an increase of 15.1% over the previous year, with 60% pursuing engineering programs. India Today. MOU stands for Memorandum Of Understanding. ET. Unfortunately, Indian parents don't understand. They want their children to escape.

The real crime.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in the United States on Saturday (yesterday) for a three-day visit, starting with the Quad Leaders' Summit hosted by outgoing US President Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware." HT. "The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), commonly known as the Quad, is a strategic security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan and the United States that is maintained by talks between member countries." wikipedia. The Quad was set up to contain Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific. Interestingly, "Australia has expelled an unspecified number of Indian spies who were caught trying to 'steal secrets' about sensitive defence projects and airport security, and classified information on trade relationships, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reported." "A so-called 'nest of spies'...was also accused of monitoring Indians living in Australia." HT. This is what China does and what the Quad is supposed to resist. "Between 2016 and 2022, four local Chinese public security bureaus reportedly established 102 overseas stations in 53 countries across North and South America, Europe, Africa and Asia." These are "part of China's broader efforts to influence and control the Chinese diaspora." brookings.edu. Fortunately, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has promised to discuss the issue of Indian spying privately. ET. Unfortunately, the US very publicly extradited Indian national Nikhil Gupta, who is accused of trying to murder a Sikh separatist citizen of the US. justice.gov. As a result of these accusations, "Seeking damages for alleged assassination attempt, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun and general counsel of pro-Khalistan Sikhs for Justice filed a lawsuit in a US federal district court against the Indian government and National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval." ET. Following which, "the District Court for the Southern District of New York issued a summons to the Indian government, NDTV reported. The summons demands a response from the Indian government within 21 days." Mint. Perhaps Mr Modi will remember how his majority government was forced to eat humble pie in 2021 when, "A French court has ordered a freeze on residential properties owned by the Indian government in central Paris, in what is seen as a setback for the Centre in its tax dispute with the London-listed Cairn Energy Plc." TOI. Aside from the Quad, "Swiss authorities have frozen more than $310 million in funds across multiple Swiss bank accounts as part of an investigation into allegations of money laundering and securities forgery linked to the Adani Group, alleged Hindenburg Group citing newly released Swiss criminal court records." ET. In January, the Supreme Court accepted the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (SEBI) clean chit to the Adani Group. NDTV. Mr Modi is known to be close to Mr Adani. "This is not an Adani issue, this is a MODANI issue," said Congress MP Jairam Ramesh. In response, Hindenburg has accused SEBI chief Madhabi Puri Buch of investments in Adani Group's shell companies which, it alleges, were involved in manipulation of share prices. BT. If Swiss courts implicate SEBI that will be two cases against the government. Lawyers are expensive. We hope that we, the hapless Indian taxpayers, will not have to foot the costs. Spying is not a crime. Getting caught is.  

The rupee is getting stronger.

"The rupee hit a new record low of Rs 83.99 against the US dollar on 5 September." "However, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened in the foreign exchange market via dollar sales, which prevented the rupee hitting the psychologically crucial mark of Rs 84 per dollar." BS. In fact, the rupee did go above 84 to the dollar on 10, 11 and 12 September, the highest being 84.015 to one dollar on 12 September, but closed below the 84 mark everyday. That was last week. Yesterday the rupee closed at 83.474 to one dollar, a jump of over 50 paise. Investing.com. "One of the major catalysts for the rupee's rise is the US Federal Reserve's decision to implement a significant 50 basis points cut in interest rates." "This rally is not an isolated event but part of a larger trend where the performance of Asian currencies, particularly the Chinese yuan, has had a cascading effect across the region." However, "A stronger rupee may negatively impact the price competitiveness of Indian goods in global markets, making it harder for exporters to maintain their profit margins." The Statesman. Even as the rupee was flirting with the 84 mark, "India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $223 million, reaching a record high of $689.458 billion for the week ended 13 September, according to the RBI." TOI. But, even with a weaker rupee, India's "Goods exports dipped by 9.32% year-on-year to $34.71 billion in August." While "India's imports surged to a record high of $64.36 billion, year-on-year increase of 3.3%." That "pushed the trade deficit to $29.65 billion in August, the second highest ever monthly gap between the values of the country's exports and imports." "India's central bank Chief Shaktikanta Das has pulled off a rare balancing act: Clamping down on volatility in the rupee while allowing it to drift lower to aid Prime Minister Narendra Modi's export ambitions." ET. A stronger rupee is likely to suck in more imports as they become relatively cheaper and hurt exports, thus increasing the trade deficit. The RBI could follow the US Fed and reduce its own interest rate which was held at 6.5% for the ninth successive time in August. TOI. "India's consumer price index (CPI) inflation in August stood at 3.65%." BS. "Indian banks are facing a daunting dilemma as urban savers increasingly flock to higher-yielding instruments like mutual funds and stocks, undermining banks' traditional advantage of low-cost deposits." Mr Das also said "the RBI is worried...as credit growth is outpacing deposit growth, which could lead to liquidity challenges for the banking sector." ET. If interest rates are lowered, more people may look to invest in stocks. "Indian stock market benchmarks - the Sensex and the Nifty 50 - jumped over a percent each to hit fresh record highs in morning trade on Friday, September 20." Mint. As the markets soar to ever new highs they attract more punters looking for quick profits. What happens if the markets see a genuine correction, lasting for a few weeks to months, no one knows. Mr Das is due to retire in December. NSB. Could turn out to be very lucky.    

Silenced for the time being.

In June, "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned...that Israel was prepared with an 'extremely powerful' response to attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon, which have escalated significantly in recent days." "Hours later, at least 11 Israelis were wounded, one critically, in a Hezbollah claimed attack with explosives-laden drones on the Druze-majority town of Hurfeish." The Times of Israel. If Hezbollah thought that it has a right to keep attacking Israel, it was taught a lesson as, "Pagers used by hundreds of members of the militant group Hezbollah exploded near-simultaneously on Tuesday (17 Sept) in Lebanon and Syria, killing at least nine people, including an 8-year-old girl, and wounding several thousands, officials said." "Previously, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had warned the group's members not to carry cellphones, saying they could be used by Israel to track and target them." AP. More was to follow. The next day, "exploding walkie-talkies killed 20 and injured at least 450 people," as "The explosions occurred in the vicinity of a large crowd that had gathered for the funerals of four victims of Tuesday's simultaneous pager blasts." BBC. Nasrallah banned cellphones because Israel was assassinating Hezbollah operatives by locking on to their phone signals. But, "Even before Mr Nasrallah decided to expand pager usage," Israel set up B.A.C. Consulting company in Hungary to produce pagers "powered by just a few ounces of explosive compound," and shipped them to Lebanon. NYT. "Lebanon is in the grip of panic." "Residents have begun taking drastic measures to protect themselves," and "In some cases, people have unplugged home appliances, even turning off Wi-Fi routers." "At one point, security forces detonated a bag of rice at the American University of Beirut Medical Center, suspecting it might have been rigged with explosives." ET. Israeli Army Chief Herzi Halevi said, "We plan ahead by stages. At every stage, the price paid by Hezbollah should be high. We will make it so that terrorists will be afraid of going to the toilet and even eating food." ET. Late yesterday, "Israeli fighter jets pounded Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon," and " It said that since the afternoon, fighter jets struck some 100 rocket launchers consisting of 1,000 barrels." ET. "It is hard to think of an attack more calculated to sow fear and confusion." "Each explosion may have been small, but some resulted in catastrophic injuries." BBC. For now, Hezbollah is depleted of operatives and its ability to communicate has been severely hampered. Hezbollah is a proxy for Iran which is already furious after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July. India Today. "The US has kept an increased military presence in the Middle East throughout much of the past year, with about 40,000 forces, at least a dozen warships and four Air Force fighter jet squadrons spread across the region." ET. Hezbollah will take time to rebuild its forces and a secure means of communication. Iran will have to calculate how to attack Israel without drawing the US into the conflict. The US does not want to be involved. Israel has a window of opportunity. If only it can destroy Hezbollah's arsenal. That will be a real victory.

Victims of do-gooders.

"Lakshmina Patel and her husband Haresh sold their two-year-old son Raja to a couple for Rs 20,000 on September 5." "Lakshmina...had just given birth to a baby girl. The woman running the hospital asked for Rs 4,000 to discharge her." "Haresh requested the villagers for a loan but no one gave him any money. Helpless, he sold his son through a middleman." The Wire. Lurid headlines such as these are meant to make us feel guilty and create pity for the struggles of the poor. While India's poor do suffer there are many questions in this case. Why did they give birth to another child when they could not feed the first? "India ranked 111th out of 125 countries in the Global Hunger Index - 2023 with the country reporting the highest child wasting at 18.7%." ET. This in a country where, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that India will become a $30 trillion economy by 2047. She said the country will become a $5 trillion economy by 2028." DD. And, the 2024 Hurun India Rich List said that "India minted a new billionaire every five days last year." We are proud to have a total of 334 dollar billionaires. ET. The government spent an enormous Rs 21.03 trillion on social sector expenditure in FY 23, a jump from Rs 9.1 trillion in FY 16. A survey in 2019-21 found 16.4% (228.9 million) of the population suffered from multidimensional poverty and 18.7% (260.9) were vulnerable to multidimensional poverty. pib.gov.in. Despite all this spending the family did not possess a Ration card, when the government is providing free food grains to 813.5 million people for five years at a cost of Rs 11.80 trillion (pib.giv.in), an Ayushman card which has been provided to 347 million people and provides Rs 500,000 per year for hospital treatment (pib.giv.in) or an MGNREGS card which provided 100 days of paid work to 83.2 million rural people in the financial year 2023-24 (BS). In addition to the central schemes, "In fact, the Economic Survey of 2022-23 had pointed out that as of December 2022, there were more than 2,000 such schemes run by state governments." Hence, "in this quick and disguised way, India is moving towards a universal basic income," wrote Vivek Kaul. The list is endless. "After reverses in the general election and facing possible losses in state polls this year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's coalition has stepped up cash handouts, debt waivers and other freebies." Reuters. "Mr Modi says his government has spent more than Rs 34 trillion ($400 billion) in the past decade, delivering cash benefits to low-income households and reaching over 900 million people." BBC. The father of Haresh received agricultural land from the government on lease, which he sold illegally, Haresh received Rs 110,000 under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and has sold his son for Rs 20,000 which should be a heinous crime. So is this a delinquent family and will the child be much better off in a family where he will be fed, educated and cared for? It seems that do-gooders think that poverty is a pardonable excuse for criminal behavior. They may be doing enormous harm. Children are the victims.    

Festival of taxes.

"India's wholesale inflation eased to a four-month low at 1.31% on an annual basis in August from 2.04% in July, as fuel prices turned negative and the pace of rise in food prices slowed." "Fuel and power saw a deflation in August, as against 1.72% rise in July, government data showed. Food prices, a key indicator, slowed to 3.26% in August from 3.55% in the previous month." ET. "Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures settled at their lowest level since December 2021 on Tuesday (10 Sept), after Opec+ revised down its demand forecast for this year and 2025, offsetting supply concerns from Tropical Storm Francine. Brent crude futures settled down $2.65, or 3.69%, to $69.19 a barrel." Reuters. Brent crude is trading at $73.43 this morning. oilprice.com. The retail price of petrol in the US was $3.180 per gallon on 16 September. eia.gov.  One US dollar buys Rs 83.77 this morning (xe.com) and one US gallon is about 3.8 liters  (unitconvertors.net). Therefore, the price of petrol in the US is around Rs 70 per liter. In comparison, the retail price of petrol in Delhi is at Rs 94.72 per liter. NDTV. The difference of nearly Rs 25 in the price of petrol between the US and India is because the Indian government increases duties and taxes to take advantage of any fall in the international price of crude oil. Taxes account for over 55% of the price of petrol and over 50% of the price of diesel. cleartax.in. Not just excise duties, the central government was collecting windfall taxes of Rs 1,850 per tonne on domestic crude (Mint). While windfall taxes on domestic crude and painful excise duties on imported crude nullified any gains for the people, taxes on cooking oil have been jacked up apparently to benefit our farmers. "India has raised the basic import tax on crude and refined edible oils by 20 percentage points, the government said, as the world's biggest edible oil importer tries to help protect farmers reeling from lower oilseed prices." Customs duty was hiked by 20% to 27.5% on crude palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil "as they are also subject to India's Agricultural Infrastructure and Development Cess and Social Welfare Surcharge". Duties on refined oils have been increased to 37.75% from 13.75%, a difference of 22%. HT. In a diktat, "The government has asked edible oil processors not to hike retail prices following recent increase in import duties, as there is enough stock of cooking oils that were shipped at a lower duty." ET. Only the government has the right to fleece citizens of India. At the same time they don't want prices to go up just before the festival season which started with Ganesh Chaturthi on 6 September, followed by Durga Puja on 9-13 October and then Diwali on 29 October. High costs of food and fuel will mean less spending on non-essential items like televisions, motorcycles and cars. And that will mean less collection of exorbitant taxes. Blood is finite. You can suck only that much.

The best chips.

A few days back, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi accompanied by his Singapore counterpart Lawrence Wong...visited a leading Singaporean semiconductor company and signed an MOU on India-Singapore Semiconductor Ecosystem Partnership." The government is to give a second $10 billion to Indian Semiconductor Mission (ISM), which is "a division within the Digital India Corporation tasked with furthering the country's semiconductor manufacturing, packaging and design capabilities." ET. ISM within DIC doing everything, managed by bureaucrats. Disaster looms. "In 21st century Bharat, the chips are never down. Today's Bharat assures the world that when the chips are down, you can bet on India," Mr Modi said. ET. CEOs of semiconductor industries "appreciated India's commitment to the growth of the semiconductor sector and said that what has transpired today is unprecedented wherein leaders of the entire semiconductor sector have been brought under one roof." pib,gov.in. The US CHIPS and Science Act provides $52.7 billion for domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors within the US, as well as "$174 billion in the overall ecosystem of public sector research in science and technology". wikipedia. In March, "The Biden administration...revised rules aimed at making it harder for China to access US artificial intelligence (AI) chips and chip making tools," while in October it banned "shipments to China of more advanced AI chips designed by Nvidia and other." Reuters. In January, "ASML has been ordered by the Dutch government to restrict shipment of some of its chip-making equipment to China, the company said." "ASML is known for its prowess in making lithography machines, which use light to print patterns on silicon." "Because of its dominance in the market, ASML has been cited by experts as a bellwether of the growing rift between China and the West over access to advanced technology." CNN. In March, Prof Raghuram Rajan said, "India needs to focus on more pressing needs, such as putting spectrometers into colleges to produce first rate science students, rather then wooing chip manufacturers with subsidies." He did not say that India should never make chips "but with every nation trying to pursue the same, it would be a ruinous race to get into." Moneycontrol. "If designs, wafers, machines and key chemicals all need to be produced within the same country to achieve true security, only a vast continental economy like the US - and maybe China and the EU - can obtain significant manufacturing independence, and only at tremendous cost," wrote Prof Rajan. "Today, India ranks as the world's third largest potato producing nation," which being "a cash crop provides significant income for farmers: the value of the 2005 harvest is estimated at $3.6 billion and exports totaled about 80,000 tonnes that year." Potaopro. Potatoes are easy to grow, easy to turn into chips and immediately create jobs. Potato chips will never be down.     

Waking up at last.

"Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump pledged...to conduct mass deportations of Haitian immigrants from the Ohio city of Springfield, even though the majority of them are in the United States legally. The city for days has found itself at the center of a social media maelstrom after right wing agitators latched onto false claims that Haitian arrivals were eating household pets." Reuters. "In a bold move that marked a major U-turn in immigration policy, the country of Sweden announced plans to offer up to US$34,000 in financial incentives to immigrants who would voluntarily return to their home countries. WION. In the UK, "Sir Keir Starmer has confirmed the Rwanda deportation scheme is 'dead and buried' on his first full day as prime minister." "Ending the scheme also leaves a question mark over the fate of 52,000 migrants earmarked for deportation." BBC. "Germany's migration commissioner proposed deporting to Rwanda migrants who arrive illegally to the European Union through its borders with Belarus, as Berlin contemplates measures to restrict refugees arriving in the bloc. The proposal comes after rising pressure on Germany's ruling coalition government to restrict irregular migration following a fatal stabbing linked to Islamic State at a city state last month." Reuters. "Germany's government announced plans to impose tighter controls at all of the country's land borders in what it called an attempt to tackle irregular migration and protect the public from threats such as Islamist extremism. Reuters. This could be the beginning of the end of free travel within the Schengen area encompassing 29 European countries  (wikipedia).  "The senate standing committee on overseas Pakistanis, chaired by senator Zeeshan Khanzada, was informed that employers in the Gulf region prefer hiring workers from countries like Bangladesh over Pakistan due to the 'deplorable standards' of Pakistani labor." "Pakistanis reportedly account for 50% of the crime rate among the labor force in the UAE." TOI. A report by the Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh "revealed that 216,219 Indians renounced their citizenship in 2023, slightly down from 225,620 in 2022. ET. "Between 2017 and 2022, 30,000 and 35,000 super-rich Indians, called High Net Worth Individuals or HNIs, left the country." "However, in 2023, only 6,500 HNIs left India. HNIs are individuals whose net worth is $1 million or more." The Print. "Indian students who have long sought education opportunities in countries like the United Kingdom (UK), Canada, Australia, and Netherlands, are now facing a growing number of obstacles." BS. Most are fake students planning to somehow stay out of India permanently. Countries are waking up to the dangers of immigration. Maybe it will be good for the climate (science.org). And reduce violence. 

Money more serious than murder.

"The Supreme Court granted bail to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in the alleged Delhi excise policy case." "The Supreme Court's critical 2013 remark likening the CBI to a 'caged parrot' resurfaced...as the apex court emphasized the need for the agency to project an image of independence." ET. In Justice Bhuyan's opinion, "For 22 months, the CBI does not arrest the appellant but after the learned Special Judge grants regular bail to the appellant in the ED case, CBI seeks his custody. In the circumstances, a view may be taken that such an arrest by the CBI was perhaps only to frustrate the bail granted to the appellant in the ED case." Live Law. CBI is the Criminal Bureau of Investigation and ED is the Enforcement Directorate. ED is under the Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance (enforementdirectorate.gov.in) and the CBI is "functioning under Dept of Personnel, Ministry of Personnel, Pensions & Public Grievances, Government of India." (cbi.gov.in). Thus both the investigative agencies are under the control of the Central government. In June, "Jharkhand High Court...ordered ex-CM Hemant Soren's release on bail after 149 days in custody, observing that 'none of the registers/revenue records' cited by ED in its land scam and money laundering probe 'bear imprint of the direct involvement of the petitioner'." After release Mr Soren said, "A story was concocted to keep me inside jail for five months." "At times I get worried at the way politicians, CMs, ministers, social workers, writers and journalists are being imprisoned at recent times in an effort to muffle their voices." TOI. In Kolkata, West Bengal, "On August 9, a 31-year old post-graduate trainee doctor was found dead in semi-naked condition in the seminar hall of state-run RG Kar Medical College & Hospital." She had been raped and murdered. Mint. In the early hours of 15 August "a group of miscreants broke through barricades, manhandling protesting doctors, and damaged hospital property, including the emergency building where the body of a woman doctor was found last week." TOI. "A video has surfaced on the internet which is a proof that the mob had vandalised the seminar room of RG Kar Hospital on purpose, to destroy evidence." "The video shows rioters talking among themselves, asking each other to move to the seminar room." Republic World. After taking over the case suo Motu, the Supreme Court asked protesting doctors to get back to work or face "disciplinary proceedings under relevant regulations". HT. Isn't it bloody marvelous? Chief ministers are held in prison for months on unproven charges while no hint of justice on the succession of rapes and murders in Bengal (gondwanauniversity. org.) with no convictions. Probably because, "Sirsa-based Dera Sacha Sauda head Gurmeet Ram Rahim, a convict in rape and murder cases, walked out of Rohtak's Sunaria jail...on a 21-day furlough," and "has been granted furlough for a total of 253 days through eight orders since Feb 7, 2022." TOI. Haryana had a BJP led government. India Today. Is India becoming a 'failed state' (wikipedia)? Partially at least. 

Something to boast about.

Gold "hedges against inflation, protects from risk and has a low correlation with equity. Yet, last month, gold prices surged to an all-time high of $2,530 per Troy ounce, defying expectations amid declining inflation and strong equity markets." There are many reasons for gold's rally. US bond yields and the dollar have declined in anticipation of a fall in interest rates. "In terms of gold, the dollar's value in August 2024 was merely 11.5% of its value in January 2000; the Swiss franc was marginally better at 21.3%." Also, "By the end of July 2024, China's central bank held 2,264 tonnes of gold," in an effort to de-dollarize its reserves, wrote Deepa Vasudevan. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also been buying gold - 33 tonnes in 2022, 16 tonnes in 2023 and has added another 24 tonnes in the four months from January to April 2024. ET. India's gold reserves are eighth in the world at 840.76 tonnes. Forbes. On top of buying gold, "The RBI has moved 100 metric tonnes of its gold stored in the UK to domestic vaults in FY24. BT. "Gold traditionally has an inverse relationship with stocks." So, experts "say gold and equities moving in conjunction is a central bank triggered phenomenon." "The current trend of gold buying is not limited to China. All central banks are stocking up on this asset." "They don't buy gold for short-term trading or profit-booking. It is either to safeguard their currencies, diversify their reserves or hedge geopolitical risks. Sometimes all of the above. This is what is making many market watchers nervous," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. "Unlike most financial assets, driven at their core by currencies whose supplies can be, and are, continuously increased through a couple of keystrokes on central bank computers, supply of gold is limited and constrained." "There's a small, if fanatical group of 'experts' and financiers," who "argue that routes through which central banks can create near infinite money supply - by small changes in banking rules - 'debases' fiat currencies," and "that leaves gold - stable, trusted, liquid and non-fiat," Somnath Munkherjee. Indians buy gold as protection  against inflation and currency depreciation. "Roughly 25000 tonnes (or 22679618 kg) of gold are thought to be owned by Indian homes. More gold than the US, Switzerland, Germany, and IMF combined is held in reserve." DNA. "Most economists view India's faith in gold as an irrational and regressive remnant of a medieval past." "But Sane and Singh's research suggests that high inflation, a currency depreciation bias and limited avenues for asset diversification make gold a 'rational' investment for Indian households." And, "If gold were an 'irrational' investment, it would have led to gold divestments by central banks," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. Indian citizens are richer than the US Federal Reserve. Something to boast about. Rational.  

The rich can afford it.

In the US, "Hiring fell short of forecasts in  August," as, "Payrolls rose 142,000 and job growth in the prior two months was revised down." "Job fairs overcrowded with disillusioned graduates are a stark reality check for bullish investors betting on India," and "For all the optimism that's luring investment from the likes of Apple Inc, the reality across most cities and villages is that the 'boom' just isn't creating enough quality jobs for the millions of people entering the workforce each year." ET. According to the US Department of Labor 142,000 jobs were added in August compared to 89,000 in July, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August from 4.3% in July. Mint. The consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the US came in at 2.5% compared to 2.9% in July, the lowest annual figure since February 2021. However, core inflation remained steady at 3.2% in August, the same as in July. TOI. In China, "producer prices dropped 1.8% against forecasts for a 1.4% fall. CPI rose an annual 0.6% in August and almost all of that was food, with goods prices up just 0.2%." Reuters. In India, the CPI inflation in August came in at 3.65% compared to 3.6% in July. It was 6.83% in August 2023. BT. The easing of CPI inflation is not a cause for celebration because the 3.65% rise is on top of the prices of last year thus compounding household expense and the lower figure is mostly due to base effect. The 'base effect' is a ratio derived from comparison to a previous number. If the previous number is high then the ratio of the difference will be low. wikipedia. Asian countries are increasing tariffs on Chinese products to protect their own industries. The Indonesian government "has raised tariffs to 100-200% on goods ranging from clothing to electronics". Malaysia, Thailand and even Pakistan are investigating how low-priced Chinese goods are harming their industries. At $17.963 trillion, China's gross domestic product (GDP) is second only to that of the US. worldometer. Yet, "China's total household consumption remains at just under 40% of GDP, compared with 60-70% in most developed countries." And the bursting of the property bubble means "industries such as construction, steel and cement have slowed, prompting Beijing to raise manufacturing capacity in the expectation that exports will keep the economy growing," wrote Rahul Jacob. "That said, the true price of the backlash against trade will not be paid by rich countries, which are, after all, already rich." "The most important, and least discussed, consequence of rising protectionist barriers is that low-income countries will find it more difficult to employ trade as an engine of growth." ET. "India's exports to China in 2023-24 stood at USD 16.65 billion, while imports aggregated at USD 101.75 billion, leaving a trade deficit of over USD 85 billion." ET. India sadly cannot levy tariffs on Chinese products because that will raise inflation and prevent the Reserve Bank (RBI) from pretending that it has brought inflation under control and start reducing interest rates. We depend on China. To boast of growth.    

Sunk cost and FOMO.

"India's stock market rally is ramping up its index weighting and creating a dilemma for global fund managers: sit back and watch as their relative exposure shrinks while the market grows, or buy in at increasingly eye-watering prices. Most find the latter uncomfortably risky." Reuters. "The Indian banking sector is facing challenges in attracting deposit growth due to increasing competition from mutual funds (MFs) and other alternative investment options." "Bankers across the sector have expressed concerns about the systemic risks," as "most MF investors are not conducting proper analysis and may face significant risks in the future if market cycles shift." ET. Markets in India have just opened and already the Nifty 50 is up 136.75 points to 25,055.20 points (NSE), while the Sensex is up about 346 points to 81,867.22 points (BSE). "With the capital markets at historic highs, startup IPOs are seen as exciting opportunities," and not just at listing, but, "In fact, out of the 10 best performing main board IPOs of this year so far, three belong to new age companies,..all of which have soared above 100% within just three months," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. "In the last five years that the Sensex took to double to 80,000, retail investors have emerged as counterbalance to deep-pocketed foreign funds who have held sway on Dalal Street for decades." The Asset Under Management (AUM) for mutual funds has more than doubled to Rs 59 trillion from Rs 26 trillion in five years. TOI. "With their rising interest and participation in equity markets, small & semi-urban regions are becoming a big part of India's growth story. West Bengal's North 24 Parganas, home to the Sundarbans yet virtually unknown to many, has been among the biggest contributors of new stock market investors since Sept 2023." TOI. In the dotcom bubble, "merchant bankers did inflate that value of many dotcom companies with barely any business prospects, projecting a prosperous future to sell retail investors these shares at excessive valuations." "A similar scenario has unfolded in India in the 2000s." "Chartered accountants and merchant bankers play a crucial role in producing numbers that make these companies appear much stronger than they are," wrote Vivek Kaul. "Seven out of 10 individual intraday trades in cash segments made losses in the financial year ending March 2023, a study done by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) revealed." ET. Why do Indians keep trading in the markets when they are making losses? "Naturally- occurring Ponzi schemes do arise," when "Investors, their confidence and expectations buoyed by past price increases, bid up speculative prices further...there by enticing more investors to do the same, so that the cycle repeats again and again," wrote Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Schiller. Investors are lured by past gains and are then compelled to go on playing the markets because of 'sunk cost fallacy' where the investor spends more money to reverse past losses (Investopedia). Why isn't anyone trying to stop people from gambling on stocks? Maybe because "The jobless rates for graduates was 29.1%, almost nine times higher than the 3.4% for those who can't read or write, a new ILO report on India's labor market showed." BS. They probably do not want these people out in the streets. Also, if this is a bubble, how can you gently puncture it without causing a collapse and massive losses for millions of Indians? They are terrified to try. Paralysed, like 'deer in headlights' (idioms). 

Enjoy the festivities.

"The Supreme Court (SC) on Monday (09 September) pulled up the West Bengal government over a 14-hour delay in registering a first information report (FIR) in the brutal rape and murder of a 31-year-old doctor at RG Kar Medical College in Kolkata, directed striking doctors across the state to resume their duties by 5pm on September 10," and "A bench headed by Chief Justice of India Dhananjaya Y Chandrachud emphasized that no punitive action would be taken against the doctors if they returned to work, but warned that continued absenteeism could result in disciplinary proceedings under relevant regulation." HT. An 'iron fist in a velvet glove' routine, first used by Emperor Nepoleon Bonaparte. Forbes. The ravaged body of the doctor was discovered on 9 August, protests started on 10 August, mocking the family and protesters, on 12 August, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee ordered the police to solve the case in 7 days, the same police which had tried to bribe the family and hurriedly burnt the body, thereby destroying evidence. On 13 August, the Calcutta High Court transferred the investigation to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) but on 18 August the SC took suo Motu cognisance of the case. The Hindu. 'Suo motu' means 'on its own motion'. Collins. Why did the SC take over the case without being asked when, "At the end of 2023, the SC was saddled with 80439 pending cases." SCO. By March 2024, at least 24 cases were pending in the SC for over 30 years. SCO. Often litigants die before a verdict is reached. Perhaps, the Hon'ble SC should implement the principle of 'justice delayed is justice denied' (wikipedia) before reaching for suo motu. We are well into September, but the investigation has yielded no results so far, presumably because of the delay caused by the legal meandering. The people most enjoying the charade are the lawyers who charge exorbitant fees per appearance. Senior Advocate Kapil Sibal is representing the West Bengal government in the case. HT. Why? No one is alleging that any official of the government committed the rape and murder so why is the government the defendant? Mr Sibal charges Rs 800,000 to Rs 1.5 million per appearance. Law Prep Tutorial. Paid by our taxes. "The bench was also informed by Sibal, the Bengal government's lawyer,...two dozen people had lost their lives as a direct result of the doctors' strike in the state." Really? How did he arrive at the cause of death? Perhaps, Mr Sibal can provide us with the mortality figures for the same period in previous years and, if not, the court should charge him with perjury. Of course, that will not happen. "On 14 September 2020, a 19-year-old woman was gang-raped by four men in Hathras, in Uttar Pradesh." She died. In that case as well the victim's body was burnt by the police at 2.30 am without consent or knowledge of the family. Three of the accused have since been found innocent while the fourth was found guilty of manslaughter. wikipedia. In further arrogant mockery, "Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee invoked the state's Durga Puja economy...while urging people to 'return to festivities' after a month of protests." TOI. She knows she has won. The Mother's Puja starts on 9 October. With a human sacrifice on 9 August. The Indian State is the executioner.