Friday, September 13, 2024

Something to boast about.

Gold "hedges against inflation, protects from risk and has a low correlation with equity. Yet, last month, gold prices surged to an all-time high of $2,530 per Troy ounce, defying expectations amid declining inflation and strong equity markets." There are many reasons for gold's rally. US bond yields and the dollar have declined in anticipation of a fall in interest rates. "In terms of gold, the dollar's value in August 2024 was merely 11.5% of its value in January 2000; the Swiss franc was marginally better at 21.3%." Also, "By the end of July 2024, China's central bank held 2,264 tonnes of gold," in an effort to de-dollarize its reserves, wrote Deepa Vasudevan. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also been buying gold - 33 tonnes in 2022, 16 tonnes in 2023 and has added another 24 tonnes in the four months from January to April 2024. ET. India's gold reserves are eighth in the world at 840.76 tonnes. Forbes. On top of buying gold, "The RBI has moved 100 metric tonnes of its gold stored in the UK to domestic vaults in FY24. BT. "Gold traditionally has an inverse relationship with stocks." So, experts "say gold and equities moving in conjunction is a central bank triggered phenomenon." "The current trend of gold buying is not limited to China. All central banks are stocking up on this asset." "They don't buy gold for short-term trading or profit-booking. It is either to safeguard their currencies, diversify their reserves or hedge geopolitical risks. Sometimes all of the above. This is what is making many market watchers nervous," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. "Unlike most financial assets, driven at their core by currencies whose supplies can be, and are, continuously increased through a couple of keystrokes on central bank computers, supply of gold is limited and constrained." "There's a small, if fanatical group of 'experts' and financiers," who "argue that routes through which central banks can create near infinite money supply - by small changes in banking rules - 'debases' fiat currencies," and "that leaves gold - stable, trusted, liquid and non-fiat," Somnath Munkherjee. Indians buy gold as protection  against inflation and currency depreciation. "Roughly 25000 tonnes (or 22679618 kg) of gold are thought to be owned by Indian homes. More gold than the US, Switzerland, Germany, and IMF combined is held in reserve." DNA. "Most economists view India's faith in gold as an irrational and regressive remnant of a medieval past." "But Sane and Singh's research suggests that high inflation, a currency depreciation bias and limited avenues for asset diversification make gold a 'rational' investment for Indian households." And, "If gold were an 'irrational' investment, it would have led to gold divestments by central banks," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. Indian citizens are richer than the US Federal Reserve. Something to boast about. Rational.  

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