Thursday, September 12, 2024

The rich can afford it.

In the US, "Hiring fell short of forecasts in  August," as, "Payrolls rose 142,000 and job growth in the prior two months was revised down." "Job fairs overcrowded with disillusioned graduates are a stark reality check for bullish investors betting on India," and "For all the optimism that's luring investment from the likes of Apple Inc, the reality across most cities and villages is that the 'boom' just isn't creating enough quality jobs for the millions of people entering the workforce each year." ET. According to the US Department of Labor 142,000 jobs were added in August compared to 89,000 in July, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August from 4.3% in July. Mint. The consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the US came in at 2.5% compared to 2.9% in July, the lowest annual figure since February 2021. However, core inflation remained steady at 3.2% in August, the same as in July. TOI. In China, "producer prices dropped 1.8% against forecasts for a 1.4% fall. CPI rose an annual 0.6% in August and almost all of that was food, with goods prices up just 0.2%." Reuters. In India, the CPI inflation in August came in at 3.65% compared to 3.6% in July. It was 6.83% in August 2023. BT. The easing of CPI inflation is not a cause for celebration because the 3.65% rise is on top of the prices of last year thus compounding household expense and the lower figure is mostly due to base effect. The 'base effect' is a ratio derived from comparison to a previous number. If the previous number is high then the ratio of the difference will be low. wikipedia. Asian countries are increasing tariffs on Chinese products to protect their own industries. The Indonesian government "has raised tariffs to 100-200% on goods ranging from clothing to electronics". Malaysia, Thailand and even Pakistan are investigating how low-priced Chinese goods are harming their industries. At $17.963 trillion, China's gross domestic product (GDP) is second only to that of the US. worldometer. Yet, "China's total household consumption remains at just under 40% of GDP, compared with 60-70% in most developed countries." And the bursting of the property bubble means "industries such as construction, steel and cement have slowed, prompting Beijing to raise manufacturing capacity in the expectation that exports will keep the economy growing," wrote Rahul Jacob. "That said, the true price of the backlash against trade will not be paid by rich countries, which are, after all, already rich." "The most important, and least discussed, consequence of rising protectionist barriers is that low-income countries will find it more difficult to employ trade as an engine of growth." ET. "India's exports to China in 2023-24 stood at USD 16.65 billion, while imports aggregated at USD 101.75 billion, leaving a trade deficit of over USD 85 billion." ET. India sadly cannot levy tariffs on Chinese products because that will raise inflation and prevent the Reserve Bank (RBI) from pretending that it has brought inflation under control and start reducing interest rates. We depend on China. To boast of growth.    

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