Only two bull markets - India and the US.

"There are only two bull markets in the world today - US and India." "The US economy today is about 26% of the global economy, but its stock market capitalization is more than 50% of the world market," Ruchir Sharma said in an interview. "The total number of demat (dematerialised) accounts in India crossed the 150 million mark for the first time ever in March on the back of sustained bullish momentum in the Indian market." Mint. 'Demat accounts' are like bank accounts in which shares are held in electronic form. HDFC Bank. India's population is around 1,450 million (worldometer), so about 9% of Indians dabble in stocks. India's GDP in FY 24 was $3.9 trillion (Forbes), but "The market capitalization of companies listed on the National Stock Exchange exceeded $5 trillion (in May), coinciding with the Nifty 50 index reaching a record high of 22,993.60 (Mint). Central banks focus on consumer price inflation but not on asset price inflation. And, "One of the fundamental concepts of capitalism in the market is mean reversion, which is that excess profits should get competed away and you should keep getting churn. But this whole concept has been undermined now because of this extensive involvement, whether it is easy money, bailouts or regulations which benefit the big businesses enormously," said Sharma. On 29 June, "BSE Sensex and Nifty50, India's benchmark stock indices, reached record intra-day highs...before closing nearly unchanged due to profit taking." "The BSE Sensex closed slightly higher at 81,355.84, its all-time closing high." TOI. Also, "According to data from the National Housing Bank, residential property prices in India have risen by an average of 10-12% per annum over the past decade, outpacing income growth and inflation." ET. During Covid, the US Federal Reserve cut its Funds rate to 0-0.25%, started a bond-buying program of $120 billion per month, labeled quantitative easing, and provided cheap loans to businesses and municipal councils. The Congress provided direct payments of $1200, then $600 and finally $1400 to families. Investopedia. The difference between the US and India is that the US Federal Reserve targets CPI inflation rate of 2% "as most consistent with the Federal Reserve's mandate of maximum employment and price stability." Fed. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), on the other hand, seems comfortable with 6% inflation rate. So it held its policy rate at 4% for 24 months from May 2020 to May 2022 (NDTV), while the CPI inflation was averaging over 6% (RI). Since inflation hurts the poor the Central and state governments run various welfare schemes which are announced before elections. "In the 2022 Union Budget of India, there are 740 central sector (CS) schemes and 65 centrally sponsored schemes (CSS). wikipedia. Prime Minster Narendra Modi announced that 813.5 million people will be provided with free food grains for 5 years, starting from 1 January 2024, at a cost of Rs 11.80 trillion. pib,gov,in. "In fact,, the Economic Survey of 2022-23 had pointed out that as of December 2022, there were more than 2,000 such schemes run by state governments." "The total expenditure of state governments has increased from 17.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018-19 to 19.6% in 2023-24." India may be moving towards a universal basic income "in this quick and disguised way", wrote Vivek Kaul. With such stimulus being provided by both the US and Indian governments, it is not surprising that their stock and real estate markets are booming. But, whereas the US is trying to reverse some of that stimulus, India has to carry on. Any reduction would be electoral suicide. Will the bubble burst? If it does, will it lead to more stimulus? Suspense.