Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Limited land, soaring population.

In the US, "The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.9% last month from a year ago, the Labor Department said in a statement, while a measure that strips out volatile food and energy costs cooled to an annual rate of 3.2%." Core inflation is calculated by stripping food and fuel inflation out of the CPI, because they are very volatile. Investopedia. At 3.2%, the core inflation is at "its lowest level since April 2021". Even with all the good news, "US inflation remains 'uncomfortably' above the Federal Reserve's target despite the progress it has made in recent months, a senior bank official said." In its July meeting the Fed held its Funds rate at 5.25 -5.50%. usbank.com. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed could start easing interest rates from its September meeting. "India's July retail inflation slowed to 3.54%, its lowest in nearly five years, on the back of a sharp decline in food inflation." Food inflation dropped from 9.36% in June to 5.42% in July, the lowest in 13 months. However, this could largely be due to base effect because CPI inflation was 7.44% in July 2023 and 5.08% in June 2024.  ET. "India's wholesale inflation, measured using the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), eased to a 3-month low of 2.04% on an annual basis in July as against a 16-month high of 3.36% in June. ET. "India's inflation targeting framework should consider excluding food inflation, the 2023 -24 Economic Survey said.., suggesting that the difficulties faced by the poor because of high food prices can be eased through direct benefit transfers or coupons." Mint. "Higher food prices are, more often, not demand-induced but supply induced," the Survey said. "Short-run monetary tools are meant to counteract price pressures arising out of excess aggregate demand growth." Is the Survey suggesting that the cost of borrowing should be brought down so that the government can borrow at lower rates to distribute cash to the poor? Won't that increase government debt? In 2023, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on 6 February, rolled out petrol blended with 20% ethanol across 11 states and Union territories in the country." The whole country will be covered by 2025. "The current ethanol production capacity in India at 4.26 billion liters from molasses-based distilleries and 2.58 billion liters from grain-based distilleries is proposed to be expanded to 7.60 billion liters and 7.40 billion liters respectively." Ethanol for India. Which means that vast quantities of sugar cane and food grains are going to be diverted to ethanol production. "According to the United Nations' World Population Prospects-2022, India's population by 2050 is expected to rise to 1.668 billion. NDTV. To increase employment prospects "the country needs to ramp up its manufacturing sector", said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. ET. The Economic Survey trivializes food inflation as a lack of supply, but with increasing land being diverted to ethanol production, land being used for building factories, a massively rising population and the total area of land remaining constant at about 3.3 million sq km (knowindia.india.gov.in), how do our eminent economists propose increasing our food supply? Increasing handouts helps politicians win elections. Economists should focus on the welfare of the nation. Even if they are being paid by the government. It's taxpayer money.

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