Saturday, August 03, 2024

It ain't broke, at least not as yet.

Executive Director for India at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Krishnamurthy Subramanian has calculated that India will become a $55 trillion economy by our 100th year of Independence in 2047. First, there is the rule of 72. If the GDP grows at 7% it will double in 10 years and if it grows at 10% it will double in 7 years. Second, from 1991 to 2016, the average rate of inflation in India was 7% while in the US it was 2%, a difference of 5%, but the rupee has depreciated by an average of 3-3.5%, so the rupee has actually appreciated by 1.5%. From 2014, productivity has increased by 2.3%. Add all this together and, hey presto, we are the richest nation on earth. The World Bank does not agree. "The World Bank report,..noted that as countries grow wealthier, they usually hit a 'trap' at about 10% of annual US GDP per person - the equivalent of $8,000 today." "Since 1990, only 34 middle-income economies have managed to shift to high-income status - and more than a third of them were either beneficiaries of integration into the European Union, or of previously undiscovered oil." BT.  "India imported 232.5 million tonnes of crude oil...in the 2023-24 fiscal (April 2023 to March 2024)." "But it paid USD 132.4 billion for the imports in FY24 as against USD 157.5 billion in 2022-23." Mint. India is in South Asia, far away from Europe, along with Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. wikipedia. Shockingly, "India may take nearly 75 years just to achieve one-fourth of US income per capita, as per a recent World Bank report." TOI. The gross national income (GNI) per capita of the US was $80,300 in 2023 compared to just $2,540 for India. World Bank. The Bank said that India needs capital deepening urgently. "Capital deepening refers to an increase in the capital-labor ratio. The capital-labor ratio can go higher either due to an increase in the capital stock or through a decrease in the number of workers." CFI. "The Indian term jugaad became synonymous for tinkering with limited capital often in ways that were illegal. But jugaad with scarce capital can only take a country so far - capital deepening is urgently needed at low levels of development." press-reader. "To become a manufacturing power as well as create enough jobs for its predominantly young population, India needs reforms in different factors of production such as land, labor and capital." ET. But, "India is doing too well for politicians to seek major changes. Radical changes are unavoidable for a bankrupt country, as India was in 1991. But not for a country averaging 6.5-7.0% GDP 'miracle' growth for two decades through serious crises like the Great Recession and Covid," wrote Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. The government had to withdraw its land reform bill in 2015 and the farm reform bills in 2021. "For the Narendra Modi government, the decision to withdraw central farm laws is a repeat of its 'suit-boot ki sarkar' moment of 2015." DH. Mr Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could win only 240 seats, well short of 272 needed for majority, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. wikipedia. He is not going to take any chances. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Collins Dictionary. Hang on as long as possible.  

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