Thursday, May 02, 2024

Jobs are real.

In January, "Recent data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin, released in September 2023,  reveals that India's net household financial savings, encompassing bank savings, cash and investments declined to 5.1% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in FY23, down from 7.1% in FY20-21." India Today. "Household savings are broadly classified into two primary forms: financial and physical assets, with financial assets representing 56% and physical assets comprising 44% of the overall household savings, says global brokerage firm BofA Securities." "As of FY22, household savings in financial assets stand at Rs 28 trillion, twice the Rs 14 trillion seen in FY12. On average, an Indian household holds 77% of its total assets in real estate, 7% in other durable goods and 11% in gold." Mint. "India's household savings rate has declined from 22.7% of GDP in 2020-21 to 18.4% in 2022-23." However, in absolute terms, "Between 2018-19 (pre-pandemic) and 2022-23, household financial savings have declined from Rs 14.92 trillion to Rs 14.16 trillion," because household financial liabilities doubled to Rs 7.86 trillion. "But the physical savings of households in this period (including gold and silver ornaments) increased from Rs 23.52 trillion to Rs 35.47 trillion, an increase of Rs 11.95 trillion." So, physical savings are much higher than financial liabilities, wrote V Anantha Nageswaran. This resembles smoke and mirrors illusion. wikipedia. Rise in financial liabilities represent a drop in earnings in relation to expenditure, while the rise in asset values probably reflects the rise in market prices rather than new acquisition. The Monthly Per Capita Household Expenditure (MPCE) has increased from Rs 2,630 in 2011-12 to Rs 6,459 in urban areas and from Rs 1,430 to Rs 3,773 in rural areas over the same period. pib.gov.in. A large part of the increase in expenditure must have been driven by inflation which reached a high of 10.02% in 2013 and a low of 3.33% in 2017. macrotrends. Thus, households are being forced to spend more of their earnings on daily essentials at the cost of financial savings. At the same time, the price of 10 grams of gold has soared from Rs 26,400 in 2011 to Rs 74,145 today. bankbazar.com. This does not represent household earnings, which are recurrent, while the value of gold is a one-off. Similarly, growth of "Residential Property Prices in India averaged 10.48% from 2020 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 26.26% in the fourth quarter of 2011 and a record low of 1.10% in the third quarter of 2020." Trading Economics. However, selling a property is not an option because rents have jumped four-fold in one year in some cities. India Today. Fall in household savings reflect fall in earnings and that can be cured only with regular jobs. "Overall, the youth unemployment rate declined after 2017-18 dropping to 12.4% in 2021-22 and 10.0% in 2022-23." But the proportion of "youth with secondary and above education among the total unemployed has increased from 35.2% in 1999-00 to 65.7% in 2021-22." ilo-org. India needs real jobs with real incomes. Not a notional rise in asset prices. Pure bluff.      

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