Wednesday, November 08, 2023

Megaphones for the regime.

"FMCG major Britannia Industries has raised concerns over clear signs of a slowdown in the rural economy. Britannia's portfolio is now urban-centric, around 1.3 times that of rural." ET. Right on cue came the rebuttal. According to a NielsenIQ report, increase in rural spending in the July-September quarter rose to 6.4% from 4% in the preceding June quarter" because of "receding inflation, declining unemployment rates, and the government decision to reduce cooking gas prices." India Today. "This comes after four quarters of subdued growth in rural markets, which had declined 2-5% as consumers had been either downtrading (buying lower price products) or not purchasing as many goods, impacted by soaring food and fuel prices." ET. What is implicit is that the increase is because of base effect and not really a shopping frenzy. "RBI governor Shaktikanta Das has said that GDP growth for the second quarter of FY24 is likely to surpass expectations based on early indicators. ET. "It is curious that RBI's radars have picked up signs of rural recovery which have gone unperceived by every other agency," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. When both ITC and Hindustan Unilever have said that rural demand is "subdued". Is the RBI supposed to be a megaphone for the government? "RBI's record on price stability has been rather patchy," Mint. "Should RBI's effort to contain inflation go awry and its credibility suffer a jolt, then a significant aspect of the optimistic narrative would be squandered." "Sure, one cannot fault MPC or RBI for getting it so wrong. After hitting the pause button on interest rates in June, even the mighty US Fed hiked them in July, only to pause again in September," wrote Mythili Bhusurmath. We can, actually. The US Fed is trying to engineer a soft landing to an inflation rate of 2% from 9.1% in May 2022, without precipitating a recession, while the RBI is cheerfully ignoring its mandated target of 4% inflation and seems happy in missing its upper limit of 6%. "In 2022, youth unemployment rate in India was at 23.22%, higher than its neighbors Pakistan (11.3%), Bangladesh (12.9%), and Bhutan (14.4%), showed World Bank data." The Wire. "A 58 million increase in jobs between calendar year 2019 and calendar year 2022. Jobs for women increased by 28 million" and jobs for men increased by 30 million," wrote Surjit S Bhalla & Tirthatanmoy Das. However, "in the total worker base of 580 million, 106 million are unpaid helpers in 'household enterprises' in 2022-23! This wage-less group of workers grew by about 28 million between 2071-18 and 2022-23 - almost all of them women." DH.  Naturally, "According to the Global Hunger Index report, India's child wasting rate, at 18.7%, was the highest among countries on the index." TOI. Depending on Poshan Tracker, "India's rank rises by at least 20 places," leaving behind Mali, Haiti, Burkina Faso and Pakistan among others, wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh & Anurag Chandra. Hooray, clap our hungry children. Single malt all round. 

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