Friday, November 03, 2023

6.5% for 35%.

"India's festive season spending is booming as consumers splurge on cars, smartphones and TVs, buoying growth in one of the world's fastest-expanding economies. Sales at online platforms like Amazon.com Inc, and Walmart Inc-owned Flipkart was up by almost a fifth in the first week of the festive sales from a year ago. Digital transactions recorded by Unified Payments Interface surged about 40% in October from a year earlier." As if to prove it, "Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections for the month of October increased by 13% Y-on-Y to Rs 1.72 lakh crore (Rs 1.72 trillion), revealed data published by the Ministry of Finance." ET. It was highest at Rs 1.87 trillion in April 2023. This is taken as strong consumer spending because of a growing economy. "Such buying is welcome at a time when consumer spending is driving economic expansion in India," when "Neither corporate spending on new capacity nor global demand is strong enough right now," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. However, "The new annual report of the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) that was released earlier this month shows that nominal wages have grown at less than the increase in the cost of living for all three major categories of workers in India: salaried, self-employed and casual. It means inflation has outpaced earnings for the average Indian household." Between wages and profits following the pandemic, "There is now growing evidence that we have seen a profit-led recovery." "Exactly one year ago, on November 3, 2022, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met outside its schedule to discuss and draft a report the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would have to send to the central government" referring to "the 'letter' the RBI had to submit to the government following its failure to meet the inflation mandate," wrote Siddharth Upasani. "One must not forget that it (inflation) has already completed four full years above 4%." The RBI has a mandate to maintain consumer price (CPI) inflation at 4%." ET. "FMCG major Britannia Industries has raised concerns over clear signs of a slowdown in the rural economy. Britannia's portfolio is now urban-centric, around 1.3 times that of rural, the company said in its earnings conference call." ET. The Economic Survey 2022-23 "notes that 65 percent (2021 data) of the country's population lives in the rural areas and 47 percent of the population is dependent on agriculture for livelihood." pib.gov.in. Clearly the rural population is not earning and high inflation is eroding their spending power. "RBI governor Shaktikanta Das has said that GDP growth for the second quarter of FY24 (July to September) is likely to surpass expectations based on early indicators. The central bank had projected a GDP growth of 6.5% for the second quarter, which aligns with the full-year growth forecast." ET. What is the meaning of 6.5% growth if 65% of the population can spend less than the remaining 35% because of low earnings and uncontrolled high prices? It means - who cares? 

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