High profits and low consumption.

"India's economy expanded 7.6% in the September quarter from a year earlier, exceeding expectations as manufacturing posted strong growth and investments gathered pace." ET. "The investment rate at 30%, measured in nominal terms, was the highest for the second quarter since FY15." "Private consumption grew a muted 3.1%, halving from 6% in the previous quarter." "The farm sector grew a modest 1.2%," but manufacturing grew by 13.9% "as company profits grew on the back of strong demand and drop in input costs." If private consumption grew by only 3.1%, why did manufacturing grow "on the back of strong demand"? Mystery. In accordance with the Laffer curve, direct tax collections have risen to 6.1% of GDP as a consequence of a reduction in corporate tax rates in 2019 and indirect tax collections have risen to 5% of GDP because of the introduction of GST, a proof of the "sagacious policy" of this government, gushed economist Krishnamurthy Subramanian. Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection jumped by 13% Y-o-Y to Rs 1,72 trillion, the second highest ever. ET. Gross direct tax collection increased by 17.95% to Rs 11.07 trillion, while direct tax collection net of refund jumped even higher by 21.82% to Rs 9.57 trillion till 9 October 2023. pib.com.gov. While the government's "sagacious policy" deserves applause, rising GST collections could be partly due to the consumer price index (CPI) rising by 7.4% in July, 6.8% in August, 5.0% in August and 4.9% in September. RI. The higher the prices, the higher the corporate profits and higher direct and indirect tax collections. "India Inc delivered strong double-digit growth in net profit in the September quarter, riding a stellar show by automobiles, banking and finance, cement and metal companies with a domestic focus. Revenue expanded in single digits as consumer goods companies faced volume pressure and IT companies continued to struggle for growth." ET. If the GDP has soared by an unexpected 7.6% in the second quarter, why did "The Cabinet led by Prime Minister has decided that the Central government will provide free food grains to about 81.35 crore (813.5 million) beneficiaries under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) for a period of five years from 1st January 2024." pib.com.gov. "This October, leading up to the festive season, India's gold imports amounted to $7.2 billion, against an average of $3 billion in the preceding 12 months." Mint. "Most economists view Indians' faith in gold as an irrational and regressive remnant of a medieval past. India's officialdom tends to join them in such condemnation," but "Sane and Singh's research suggests that high inflation , a currency depreciation bias, and limited avenues for asset diversification make gold a 'rational' investment for Indian households," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. High prices lead to higher profits and tax collections. Also to gold purchase and free food grains.     

The damage is done.

"America's massive resources - economic, natural, human and technological - have enabled it to fight two world wars, undertake costly misadventures globally, weather several economic crises and emerge as the world's fulcrum," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. '"Over the last five decades, the US has held its share of global GDP at 24-25%." The "non-American pole" comprises China, Russia and Iran, along with Pakistan, North Korea and Cuba, while the US has Europe, East Asia and now India on its side. "The US is India's largest export market , by a long mile." And so, "India's economy is best served by a continuation of the US-led global economic commons." US "Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 5.2% annualized rate last quarter, revised up from the previously reported 4.9% pace, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said." "But growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economic activity, was lowered to a still solid 3.6%." Reuters. " 'Immaculate disinflation' is becoming a reality, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman," and "despite gloomy sentiment in pockets of the market, the economy is actually doing way better than people think." BI. India finds itself in a fix as, "Nikhil Gupta, 52, has been charged with murder for hire, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison." He apparently offered $100,000 to an assassin to kill US citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York. ET. "In an indictment unsealed by the US Attorney's office in Manhattan, authorities also revealed that Gupta was in constant communication with an Indian official (identified only as CC-1) who directed the alleged plot, ostensibly in exchange for getting Gupta off the hook in a criminal case in Gujarat." "The telephone number used by CC-1 has an India country code and is registered to an email account that, based on Internet Protocol data, accessed the internet during the period of the murder plot on numerous occasions from the vicinity of New Delhi, where CC-1 worked during the relevant period for an Indian government agency," wrote Chidanand Rajghatta. Gupta contacted a confidential source (CS) to find an assassin who passed the information to an undercover agent (UC). Clearly this is a set up by the US. Why? "The Biden administration, because of the significance it attaches to its ties with New Delhi, 'bent backwards' to be very polite in its public responses following the Canadian allegations against India over the killing of one of its citizens, a top American expert said." ET. In fact, "American spy agencies provided information to Ottawa after the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in the Vancouver area, but Canada developed the most definitive intelligence that led it to accuse India of orchestrating the plot." NYT. The Biden Administration "engaged with the Indian government on a number of occasions to urge them to cooperate with Canada in its investigation," a US official said. BT. Instead, India called Canada a "safe haven for terrorists", stopped issuing visas to Canadian nationals and threw out 41 of its diplomats in India. CNN. Now, India has set up a "high-level inquiry committee" to examine the US charges. HT. India has not forgotten the bombing of the Air India plane Kanishka in 1987 by Sikh terrorists living in Canada when Pierre Trudeau, father of the present prime minister, was the prime minister. ET. That was 36 years back. The committee should have been set up immediately Trudeau complained. What's the point now? Canada has been vindicated. 

Rat holes to billions.

"Drug makers are seeking to limit their reliance on Chinese contractors who produce drugs used in clinical trials and early-stage manufacturing, a move that is benefiting rivals India," even though, "China has for nearly 20 years been the preferred location for a range of pharmaceutical research and manufacturing services." TBS. As a result, "India's pharmaceutical business may exceed USD 130 billion by 2030, supported by expanding market opportunities and heightened demand in the overseas markets, industry experts said." "The business stood at over USD 50 billion for the 2022-23 fiscal they noted." ET. "India is expected to become a USD 30-trillion economy by 2050 pushed by robust consumption and exports, HDFC Bank chairman and former economic affairs secretary Atanu Chakraborty said." ET. "Investors have about $2 trillion of funds available to invest, and about $100 to $150 billion of that is focused on India, according to Anu Aiyengar, JP Morgan Chase & Co's global head of mergers and acquisitions. TOI. All that is fabulous and we can puff out our chests to a full 56 inches, but what is the reality? "When heavy machinery broke down trying to break through the debris trapping 41 workers in a tunnel in the Indian Himalayas, authorities called in a group of people whose profession is effectively banned in the country - 'rat-hole mining'." Reuters. "It was a difficult task, but for us nothing is difficult," said a beaming Firoz Qureshi, one of the miners, standing with his fellow workers outside the tunnel, their faces patched with white dust after the overnight drilling." "When we saw them inside the tunnel after the breakthrough, we hugged them like they were family," said Nasir Hussain, one of the six miners." Whoa, hang on a minute. These are Muslim names. They succeeded when all our ace engineers failed, breaking 3 expensive drilling machines in the process? This must be subversion. They must be charged under the UAPA, like the 7 students of the Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences & Technology (SKUAST) who were arrested for celebrating India's loss against Australia in the Cricket World Cup by chanting "Long Live Pakistan" and have been held under the draconian Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) invoked in terror cases. TOI. Whereas, 11 men convicted of the gangrape of a pregnant Muslim woman and killing 14 members of her family, including her 3-year-old daughter were released early on Independence Day last year for good behavior and greeted with sweets and garlands. BBC. Regarding pharma exports of $130 billion, "More than 65% of MSME (micro, small and medium enterprise) firms have been found to be manufacturing drugs that are not of standard quality (NSQ) during risk-based inspections." ET. This heroic act may have been forced after, "The relatives of 20 Gambian children whose deaths were linked to toxic cough syrups made in India have sued Maiden Pharmaceuticals." More than 70 children were killed. Surely, that deserves a charge under UAPA? Billions of dollars won't come through rat holes. Need knowledge and integrity. But, how?

No time for rats.

On 3 May 2023, violence between the Meitei people and the hill tribe of Kukis erupted in the northeastern state of Manipur when Scheduled Tribe status was awarded to the majority Meitei community. "According to Reuters, 77 Kukis and 10 Meiteis were killed within a week." wikipedia. "Ethnic clashes in Manipur have claimed 175 lives over four months and at least 96 bodies are still lying unclaimed." "Inspector General of Police (IPG) Muivah said that 175 have died, 1,118 sustained injuries and 32 are missing. At least 5,172 cases of arson - including 4,786 houses and 386 religious places - were reported in these four months." "Prime Minister Narendra Modi yesterday visited the famous hill shrine of Lord Venkateswara at Tirumala and offered prayers for the good health, well-being and prosperity of all Indians." Naturally he posed in front of the Shashanaga, portraying himself as an incarnation of Lord Vishnu (wikipedia) for his fanatic followers. That is probably why his followers are called 'Bhakts', which means 'believers'. The 'bhakts' are a new breed of followers, mainly of PM Modi," who "are called bhakts, because of uncritical acceptance of information received on digital media as gospel truth." DH. However, Mr Jairam Ramesh, Congress' Secretary General in-charge of Communications wrote, "Even Lord Venkateswara has not been spared by the master of 'chunavi (election) photo-ops'! Govinda! Govindaaa!", highlighting the cameras surrounding Mr Modi. FPJ. Clearly, an unbeliever. Meanwhile, "More than six months since the eruption of communal strife in Manipur," "Arms looted from the state armories are in free supply," and "Violent incidents keep happening every few days, involving attacks by one group or the other against each other or against the security forces." DH. "On 14 June, at least 11 people were shot, including nine Meitei men," and "On 17 June, the Archbishop of Imphal stated that 249 churches have been burnt in Manipur." On 25 June, Mr Modi tweeted his own pictures in front of pyramids and the Sphinx in Egypt. X. In July, a video surfaced showing two Kuki women being paraded naked by a mob on 4 May. One of the women claimed that they had been "left to the mob by the police". BT. In July, Mr Modi was in France where he was the Guest of Honor at the Bastille Day Parade and explored opportunities for investment with CEO of Chanel Leena Nair. NDTV. From France he visited the UAE where he had several "productive meetings" with the Sultan, and the world's tallest building  Burj Khalifa was lit up with the Indian flag. NDTV. Where is the time for mundane matters of rape and murder of Indian citizens? On 25 November, "Attired in a G-suit, PM Modi was in an aircraft flown by Group Captain Debanjan Mandal." "During the 30-minute sortie, capabilities of fighter aircraft Tejas were demonstrated to the Prime Minister." TH. On 27 November, "Rescuers...brought in 'rat miners' to drill through a narrow pipe and help pull out 41 construction workers trapped in a tunnel in the Indian Himalayas for more than two weeks after high-powered machines failed, officials said." Reuters. Bastille Day Parade, Chanel, Sphinx, Tejas, high level fun. Let rat miners deal with the rats. Where's the time? 

The final jugaad.

On 12 November 2023, a portion of the Silkyara Bend - Barkot tunnel, under construction at Uttarkashi in Uttarakhand state in India, collapsed at 5.30 am trapping 41 workers inside. wikipedia. Two tunnel boring machines were employed to drill a hole large enough to bring the men out but the machines broke on 17 November. An auger machine was brought but got stuck on 25 November. At last, "The rescue team decided to use manual tools such as hammers and chisels to break the debris and reach the trapped workers." This is the famous Indian 'Jugaad' which means making do with minimum resources with basic technology and knowledge. wikipedia . "As per the NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority), vertical drilling started at 12 noon today (yesterday), and been completed for 15 meters. The rescuers need to dig a total of 86 meters to reach the 41 workers." TH. They hope to bring the workers out by Christmas, while we hope that the vertical drill and the debris do not collapse on top of the workers. The tunnel "did not have any emergency exit and was built through a geological fault, a member of a panel of experts investigating the disaster said." Reuters. "It is well known that the Himalayas are a young, unstable, fragile mountain range. It has active fault lines and sees far more seismic activity than say, the Alps in Europe, which are an older mountain range." "It means that the Himalayas are more susceptible to excessive and unscientific construction work." The Quint. Why this ignorance of science? "In October 2022, India's Ministry of Science and Technology, in collaboration with other ministries and departments, announced that it would host a four-day conference called 'Akash for Life' at a university in the northern Indian city of Dehradun. 'Akash' translates to 'sky' or 'spirit' in Hindi, and refers to one of the five universal elements according to Hinduism." The Wire. The rot starts in schools. "Colleges select students based on their marks in Board exams, usually not making any adjustments when comparing among Boards." "In 1970s and 1980s, central Boards started awarding higher marks to students in regions where they felt they had to do this for their students to stay competitive with those of corresponding state Boards," wrote Sridhar Rajagopalan. Now all Boards compete with easy questions, lenient marking and grace marks to ensure that their students get the highest marks to be eligible for college admissions. Elite colleges select only the best and those left out seek admission in any college they can find. "Small private colleges with incompetent teachers, irregular classes, outdated curricula, and no opportunities for on-the-job training, are making the country's workforce unemployable, as per Bloomberg." BI. Yet, "India has surpassed China as the most represented higher education system in Asia with 148 featured universities," according to the QS World University Rankings for Asia. TOI. The joke is that, in the US, "The number of students from India shot up 35% to roughly 269,000 from 190,000 the previous year (DH) and "Last year, the number of Indian students taking admission abroad exceeded 750,000, marking a remarkable 50% increase from 2021," wrote V Ramgopal Rao. Escape or be trapped in a tunnel. For the trapped, pray to the local deity The final jugaad. 

Yes boss.

"The Foreign Office (in Pakistan)...voiced concerns over the alarming expansion of India's covert operations, including espionage and extraterritorial assassinations, on a global scale, condemning these actions as blatant violations of international law. At the weekly media briefing, while recalling that Pakistan remained a victim of India-sponsored terrorism and subversion, FO spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said, 'India's network of espionage and extraterritorial killings has gone global." Dawn. "More than a dozen terrorists, who were on New Delhi's 'most wanted list', have been mysteriously killed in different parts of Pakistan over the past two years. The Pakistani government and the banned militant organisations associated with it have remained silent about these killings." ET. No probs, we do much worse at home. "Ever since Adityanath took over the Chief Minister's post in Uttar Pradesh in March 2017, police have shot dead 190 persons in incidents of alleged exchange of fire that the state terms as 'encounters'." Another 5,591 persons were injured in these incidents. The Wire. Pakistan has not complained till now probably because it did not want to acknowledge it was harboring terrorists. But now it is adding itself to Canada and the US. "The US thwarted a conspiracy to assassinate Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on American soil and issued a warning to the Indian government over concerns that it was involved in a plot, The Financial Times reported." BT. In response to the US warning, "On its part, India takes such inputs seriously since it impinges on our own national security as well ," said Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesman Arindam Bagchi. Why so polite to the US, when MEA's response to Canada's allegation of the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada by Indian agents was, "Allegations of Government of India's involvement in any act of violence in Canada are absurd and motivated. Similar allegations were made by the Canadian Prime Minister to our Prime Minister, and were completely rejected." Brusque and a personal attack on Canada's PM. Why so rude? "Because India was asked to cooperate and if you look at the typical terminology, when someone asks to cooperate, which means you are already convicted and you better cooperate," said Indian High Commissioner to Canada Sanjay Kumar Verma. But, this is exactly as per Indian legal practice. The Supreme Court rejected the bail plea of former Deputy Chief Minister of Delhi and kept him in prison for a further 8 months to allow the CBI and ED to finish their investigation. DH. Cooperation under duress, as it were. So, why do inputs from the US impinge "on our national security as well"? Because the US might levy sanctions on certain individuals who would then be unable to travel abroad on junkets with taxpayer money, in case they are arrested. After all, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the G20 summit. HT. That would be a serious impediment to the unseen perks enjoyed by our rulers. So, two fingers to Canada and genuflect to the US. We know who the boss is.

The irrelevance of figures.

The Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) found that the "national unemployment rate increased by 3 percentage points (PPT) in just one month - from 7.1% in September 2023 to 10.1% in October 2023, coincidentally just before five states went to the polls in November," wrote economist Surjit S Bhalla. Mr Bhalla is on record as saying in 2018, that the four years of Modi government had been the "best years" for the Indian economy. ET. This was after the enormous unnecessary suffering inflicted on the nation (India Today) by an outrageous demonetisation of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 on 8 November 2016 (wikipedia). India's GDP growth fell from 8.26% in 2016 to 6.80% in 2017, 6.45% in 2018 and then to a dismal 3.87% in 2019. Macrotrends. The recent high growth rates are a rebound from the enormous 5.83% contraction in 2020 due to the most stringent lockdown imposed on the country on 25 March 2020, when there were a mere 500 cases of Covid-19. HT. Mr Bhalla's appreciation of Prime Minister Modi has nothing to do with his appointment as Executive Director (India) to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2019. The Wire. Mr Bhalla sees a conspiracy to malign the government's economic record just before elections in five states in November (wikipedia). If it's any consolation, the vast majority of voters do not read, understand or care about the rate of GDP growth or a few PPT difference in unemployment levels. They want handouts. Now. "Voters have learnt to look for what they can get today, not jam tomorrow, and seem to choose parties that offer the most generous packages - which encourages a rush to raid the treasury. Distrust of governments is such that promises relating to neglected long-term development issues, like improving school education or public health care, have little resonance," wrote TN Ninan. The BJP is right up front with all kinds of handouts for different sections of society. ET. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), which defines weekly status as "whether you were employed for at least one hour in the previous week", found that "Unemployment declined from 7.4% in 2017-18 to 4.2% in 2022-23." And the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) has increased from 47% in 2017-18 to 54%, while female LFPR has soared from 20.7% in 2017-18 to 31.3% in 2022-23. But then, "Centre's free ration scheme will be extended by 5 more years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on 4 November. 80 crore (800 million) people will benefit from it." ET. If 54% of people are gainfully employed why do 57% of the population need free food? Rs 600 billion was allocated to the Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) but another Rs 280 billion may be required in this financial year. The Center has already released Rs 660 billion plus an additional Rs 100 billion. An estimated Rs 1.1 trillion will be needed in 2024-25. ET. People enrol for this scheme only if they cannot find any other source of income. People know what they feel. Can figures make feelings different?

Slandering Arjuna.

On 9 June, "Amid uncertainties, there is a need to maintain 'Arjuna's eye' on the evolving inflation scenario and the RBI's goal is to achieve the target of 4%, governor Shaktikanta Das said in his monetary policy statement." ET. The story of a test of archery in the Mahabharata, in which the teacher Dronacharya asks each prince to target the eye of a bird made of clay set on a branch of a tree. Every prince could see the surroundings of the target, except Arjuna, who could see only the eye of the bird and nothing else. BK. The story is not just about absolute concentration on the target but also how Arjuna is the only one whose arrow pierces the bird's eye. However, since June the rate of consumer price index (CPI) inflation has been way above (RI) the RBI's mandated target of 4% (ET), but RBI's arrows have stayed stubbornly in the quiver as it has kept its interest rate unchanged for four successive times over 8 months (HT). So Das has suddenly shifted to another story in which Arjuna pierces the eye of a fish rotating overhead while looking down at its reflection in a bowl of water. bnn. Apparently, this story is meant to illustrate that Arjuna had to take the movement of the fish into account before releasing his arrow. Actually, the story is about how Arjuna succeeds in hitting his target and not about persistent inaction. Perhaps, it would help if Das concentrates on his mandate and not try to bluff us with stories. "After warning the banks, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has now slammed the brakes on the unbridled growth in consumer loans that lately expanded faster than less risky assets, directing banks to set aside more capital and establish board-monitored processes on such loans to prevent risk escalation in the financial system." ET. "Both personal loans and credit card receivables are unsecured loans, in the sense that there is no underlying assets against which the borrowing has been carried out, like the case with a housing loan, where the lending is carried out against the house which is being bought against the loan. In case of a default, the house can be sold and the bank can recover the outstanding loan amount. Such facility does not exist in case of unsecured personal loan," wrote Vivek Kaul. Interestingly, personal loans grew faster after the RBI started increasing interest rates from May 2022. "But signs of incipient risk have been lurking in plain sight. It has long been suspected that a large chink of this money has been used for speculative trades in the equity derivatives market." "Total turnover in the equity derivatives market jumped 70% between January and September 2023. Options trading in shares, specifically, has jumped 51% during this period." "This is not the first time that authorities have become conscious, just before elections, of elevated risks spilling from one market to another," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. All actions to help the party in power, people be damned. Slandering Arjuna for support. Sacrilege.

It's the nadir.

"The US thwarted a conspiracy to assassinate Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on American soil and issued a warning to the Indian government over concerns that it was involved in the plot, The Financial Times reported." BT. "The report...says US prosecutors have filed a sealed indictment in the case and are debating whether or not to make it public amid Canada's own ongoing investigation into the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey, B.C. The White House is not denying the report." CBC. While India reacted ferociously to Canada's allegation of Nijjar's killing it has been curiously silent on the US report. The Indian government termed Canada's allegation as 'absurd' and 'motivated' (TOI) and called Canada a "safe haven for terrorists" (CNN). Neither has India stopped issuing visas to US citizens as it did to Canadians,(Reuters), nor has it asked the US to reduce its diplomatic presence in India, as it had asked Canada to withdraw 41 of its diplomats so that the number would equal the number of Indian diplomats in Ottawa (Reuters). In fact the official US site boasts, "The US Embassy in New Delhi is one of the largest diplomatic missions in the world," and "represents 17 US federal government agencies, from the US Department of State to the Federal Aviation Administration." Nor has former Indian diplomat Deepak Vohra revealed that President Joe Biden's plane was 'full of cocaine' as he had accused Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of being guilty of. Mint. Maybe, as a result of the US warning, "India on Wednesday (yesterday) unilaterally resumed e-visa services for Canadian nationals." TOI. India has also been absolutely silent on the eight former Indian Navy personnel who have been sentenced to death in Qatar." "The men have been in jail since August 2022." NDTV. While Minister of Foreign Affairs S Jaishankar has been relentless in his demands for proof from Canada (Zee News), he has been completely silent on Qatar. In fact, "the foreign ministry said it would not comment given the 'confidential nature of proceedings'. Ludicrous and laughable. How can death sentences be confidential? Imagine what the families must be going through in the absence of any information from our government when they must have read that "A Qatar court has reportedly rejected the appeal filed by the Indian government on behalf of eight former Indian Navy officials who were sentenced to death for alleged espionage." Asianet. Surely, Qatar must show proof for murdering 8 Indian citizens? Or, "Did India hold off pushing hard, and at the required top-most level, for the freedom of the 'Qatar 8'," so as to time it with next year's general election? asked The Wire. Rudeness for Canada to show 'macho' image, subservience to the US and trying to conceal the threat to the lives of 8 of our citizens, all for a macabre lust for power. Can we sink any lower? 

Food for thought.

"The Finance Ministry on Tuesday (yesterday) said the combination of rapid reversal of rate hike expectations in the US, the slide in the 10-year US Treasury yield and the decline in oil prices is 'good news' for India," "But downside risks from price pressure still persist, keeping both the Indian government and the central bank on high alert." ET. Increasing consumption is driving manufacturing and services growth, Central government will achieve its fiscal deficit target of 5.9% of GDP, declining unemployment and the wealth effect from rising real estate prices will propel growth of the economy. The yield on US 10-year Treasury may have dropped to 4.418% after rising to nearly 5% (CNBC), but the yield on 10-year government bonds in India is 7.260%. Investing.com. "After hitting a near three-year high last week, the average cost on states' borrowing has eased a tad in this week's auction by 4 bps (0,04%) to 7.67% amid lower-than-indicated issuance." ET. Clearly, bond dealers expect inflation to remain high in the longer term. "Male workers in India saw wages increase by 7.2% on average in 2022 compared with 7% for women," while "Globally, the paycheck increase was 6.7% on average compared with 6% for women." ET. Although, global factors, corporate pricing and core inflation affect consumer price index (CPI) inflation, the prices of agricultural goods are most important in India, wrote Prof Pulapre Balakrishnan & M Parameswaran. "The results indicate that the relative price of agriculture not only has the greatest impact on inflation, it is close to six times that of the real repo rate. That implies that while the real repo rate matters for inflation, monetary policy cannot control it in the presence of an increase in relative prices."  The solution is to increase food production. But how? India's population is predicted to peak at 1.6 billion by 2048, following which it will decline to 1.09 billion by 2100. HT. The total area of arable land in India is fixed at 18 million hectares. pib.gov.in. A burgeoning population, erratic weather due to climate change, and increased demand on land from industries and residential housing can only help in raising prices of agricultural products. "Food inflation is making a comeback in the Indian economy, primarily driven by higher vegetable and food grain inflation during the September quarter, says a new Crisil report." ET. "Drought-like conditions in Maharashtra could squeeze the supply of key kitchen staples such as onions, pulses, sugar, and fruits and vegetables, pushing up their prices and threatening an inflationary spike." "Reservoir  levels in the state are currently 20% lower than they were last year at this time with the rain having been patchy." ET. If the government and the RBI do nothing to bring prices down in the weird belief that uncontrolled inflation leads to increased growth, people will demand more money to manage their budgets. "Voters have learnt to look for jam today, not jam tomorrow, and seem to choose parties that offer the most generous packages - which encourages a rush to raid the treasury. The Print. They can keep washing their hands, but they will be solely responsible for the suffering of people. No excuses then. 

ED summons to China.

"Neville Roy Singham, a US-born entrepreneur who made millions after founding and selling an IT consulting firm called Thoughtworks, and his wife Jodie Evans, the co-founder of left-wing anti-war group Code Pink, have been the primary funders of a group called The People's Forum since 2017," which has "played a role in organizing several pro-Palestine protests since Hamas' attack on Oct 7." Fox. "What is less known, and is hidden amid a tangle of non-profit groups and shell companies, is that Singham works closely with the Chinese government media machine and is financing its propaganda worldwide. From a think tank in Massachusetts to an event space in Manhattan, from a political party in South Africa to news organizations in India and Brazil, NYT tracked hundreds of millions of dollars to groups linked to Singham that mix progressive advocacy with Chinese government talking points." DH. Singham lives in Shanghai. "In New Delhi, corporate filings show, Singham's network financed NewsClick that sprinkled its coverage with Chinese government talking points." "NewsClick in a statement on their website said the allegations were false and misleading." ET. "China has been refusing to cooperate with the Enforcement Directorate's summons to Shanghai-based Neville Roy Singham for his alleged involvement in funneling funds to media portal NewsClick." "Despite the Chinese authorities' refusal to serve the summons, the ED has issued fresh summons through the Ministry of External Affairs to request his presence in India for questioning." ET. This is the same Ministry whose Minister S Jaishankar has "asked the Canadian government to provide evidence backing its claim that Indian agents were involved in Nijjar's assassination" over two months after Canada requested India's cooperation. TOI. The ED is probably deluded by its unbridled powers to persecute Indian citizens into thinking that its powers extend to a US citizen living in China. The Prevention of Money- Laundering Act, 2002 empowers the ED to summon an "overseas principal" who is defined as an "individual residing outside India, who owns or controls or manages, directly or indirectly, the activities or functions of payment system in India". Indian Kanoon. This means that any citizen of any country in the world is subservient to the Indian ED. As on 31 March 2023, foreign institutional investors (FII) held 20.56% of Indian stocks. BT. So, the ED can summon any of the directors of these funds and they would have to drop everything, jump on to a plane and fly all the way to India to kowtow to ED. "The law is a ass - a idiot," said Mr Bumble. Charles Dickens.

All because we helped the world.

"India has reportedly reached a historic milestone on Sunday, November 19, when its GDP surpassed the $4-trillion mark for the first time. Though there is no official word on this." "An unverified screengrab from the live tracking of GDP feed for all countries based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) data is being widely shared on social media." BT. There must be dollars floating around because, "Indians have become the largest real estate investors in the Dubai property market" "up from No 2 in the first quarter when Britishers led the field - in the purchase of new homes for end-user demand or investors seeking better yields and Golden Visa eligibility." ET. Cheap oil from Russia has helped. "India's imports from Russia rose by a whopping 64% during the April-October this fiscal amid the country's growing thirst for crude." "Data shows that Russia, which accounted for just 1% of India's oil basket, now fulfills nearly 40% of its fuel needs." TOI. "India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar...said that he expects a 'thank you' for India's role in managing global inflation." "The minister elaborated that India's approach to oil purchases prevented a surge in global prices, which in turn prevented a potential competition with Europe in the market." By buying Russian oil India has helped the world. That is chutzpah indeed. Ukraine may not agree. "After Russia's invasion, most men aged 18-60 were banned from leaving," but "Nearly 20,000 men have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the war to avoid being drafted." BBC. "Some have swum dangerous rivers to leave the country. Others have simply walked out under cover of darkness." Indians, it seems, are also not impressed with $4 trillion. "Voters have learnt to look for what they can get today, not jam tomorrow, and seem to choose parties that offer the most generous packages," and hence politicians promise "Loan write offs, higher-than-market procurement prices for grain, free foodgrain for the majority of consumers, job reservations for new caste categories, unsustainable pension programs, an ever-growing list of freebies and subsidies, and (increasingly) cash handouts," wrote TN Ninan. The ruling party, the BJP, is most generous on freebies. "Free ration, free education, LPG subsidy: BJP releases manifesto for Madhya Pradesh assembly elections." ET. It also promises to set up elite education institutions in engineering and medicine. However, parents are not waiting. "Last year, the number of Indian students taking admission abroad exceeded 750,000, marking a remarkable 50% increase from 2021," and "the surge is mainly attributed to students from Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities," wrote V Ramgopal Rao. Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised free food grains to over 800 million people for the next 5 years. India Today. If the vast majority of people need free handouts to survive, who has pocketed the $4 trillion? Answers double encrypted please.

Teacher to the world.

"CCTV: Why do so many Indians love surveillance?" asked the BBC. "There are more than 1.5 million security cameras across 15 cities in India, according to Comparitech a UK based cyber security and privacy research firm." "Citizens believe they help reduce crime - though some studies show they are more useful in solving crimes than preventing them - but civil liberties groups warn of the perils of mass surveillance." "In Indore, where the cameras per 1,000 people was the highest, the crime index - the estimated overall level of crime in the city - was slightly higher than in Kozhikode in Kerala which had a mere 0.5 cameras per 100,000 people." Indians have little faith in the police who are controlled by politicians and act as their private militias. But what if cameras protect against the police?  "When sleuths of the National Investigating Agency suddenly descended on human rights defender and school teacher Abdul Wahid Shaikh's house on October 11," "He had been monitoring the three CCTV cameras that are installed on the front and rear of his house." "When the policemen discovered the CCTV cameras outside his house, they began hitting it with their batons, destroying one of them mounted right over the door." The Wire. Police officers deliberately vandalising private property! "In his speeches over the years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken about India taking on a leadership role in global affairs as 'vishwa guru' (teacher to the world), given its population and scale of economy." TIE. Even if we want to teach the world, what if the world is seriously unimpressed and does not want to learn from us? The Wire. "Press freedom has gone from 'problematic' to 'very bad', with the country slipping 11 ranks in the World Press Freedom Index, an analysis released by Reporters Without Borders." HT. The Supreme Court agrees. "Unchecked powers with the investigating agencies to search and seize digital devices during probes is not only 'very, very dangerous' but also impacts the privacy of individuals, the Supreme Court said." HT. Will they listen? Not a chance. "It was to deal with these and related problems that the Supreme Court gave a historic judgement on September 22, 2006, directing state governments to set up three new institutions," and "Complaints Authority to ensure a higher level of accountability by the police. Besides, it prescribed a transparent procedure for the selection of the director general of police," wrote Prakash Singh. They will never do it because they and their families will end up in prison. "The Supreme Court has issued welcome guidelines to monitor the speedy disposal of cases against Members of Parliament (MPs) and Members of Legislative Assemblies (MLAs) who stay above the law even after committing heinous crimes." DH. Will the criminals be finally made to pay? Not a chance. That's why they control the police who will lose all the evidence. If the police messed up the evidence in the murder of 19 women and girls (HT) what hope is there that they will actually help convict their masters? Surveillance, fake arrests, police brutality, protection of crony crooks, corrupting institutions of governance (TW), and unending mendacious bombast. We are vishwa guru already.          

Diwali gift to friend US.

In September 2023, "New data shows approximately 70% of Indians are ready to spend more this Diwali, representing a marked 35% increase from last year," as "The planned increase in consumer spend is led primarily by customer's bullish view that their financial situation has improved (53%), and consumers' eagerness to celebrate a lot this year (49%)." ET. In November, "Anticipating a significant uptick in consumer spending, the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) has projected that the Diwali festive season in India will see sales surpassing Rs 3.5 lakh crore (Rs 3.5 trillion)." CNBC. Not just in India. "Diwali's profile is growing, particularly in the United States." "Now, as it gains national recognition, US merchants are increasingly embracing Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights, for its commercial potential." BBC. But even as the upper classes celebrate, "Amid reports of an emergency fund release of Rs 10,000 crore (Rs 100 billion) for the Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, economists expect an additional Rs 25,000-30,000 crore (Rs 250-300 billion). The allocation for the scheme in the Union budget 2023 was Rs 60,000 crore (Rs 600 billion)." BQ. The scheme guarantees employment for 100 days in a year to the rural poor to tide over periods of unemployment. wikipedia. It's a kind of unemployment benefit. Thus, while those who have money celebrate Diwali, rural joblessness has increased. "Data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey, released last month showed that daily earnings of casual workers in rural areas fell from Rs 408 (July to September 2022) to Rs 388 (April to June 2023). During this period, monthly incomes of the self-employed - which include small retailers and farmers, among others - fell from Rs 12,791 to Rs 11,612." To add to that, "Rising food prices chipped away household earnings, leaving less funds for discretionary spending," wrote Sayantan Bera. But, does consumer spending really increase during the festive period of September of November and does it help the economy? Spending does increase by 1-3% but this is not significant. Further, "RBI analysis of monthly card spending over the years shows that, on average, spending in October does rise about 5.6% above what is 'normal'. But interestingly enough, it is preceded by a sharp slide in September to almost the same opposite degree." Mint. Clearly, people defer their spending, especially for durable goods, to the festival season which is considered auspicious. The festival period is preceded by a period of Shradh when Hindus pay homage to their ancestors and observe austerity. Curiously, additional spending for Diwali probably helps the US economy more because they still have Thanksgiving and Christmas, the major holiday season, to come. "Shoppers are expected to spend a record amount of money this holiday season, including billions more compared to last year, according to the National Retail Federation." CBS. Any help to the US is our duty. After all, "United States and India as among closest partners in the world." (White House).       

A similar situation is possible.

"The military-installed president of Myanmar has warned that the country is in danger of breaking apart if the government cannot control fighting which has broken out in Shan State." "Three ethnic insurgent armies in Shan State...have overrun dozens of military posts," and captured border crossings with China. China is turning a blind eye "because of its frustration over the military government's inaction over the scam centers" where thousands of Chinese and other foreigners have been forced to work. BBC. In October 2022, "Over 100 Indian workers were rescued from Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia after they were lured by agents for fake job opportunities in the information technology sector in Thailand, the Centre said." FE. In November 2020, the National League for Democracy (NLD) party of Aung San Suu Kyi "won 346 seats, more than 322 seats needed to form the next government," "But the military-backed opposition has demanded a re-run of the election." BBC. On 1 February 2021, the military carried out a coup, arrested leaders of the NLD, including Suu Kyi, and put a military junta in power. wikipedia. That prompted a civil war in Myanmar. The Myanmar military, Tatmadaw, is sustained by Chinese diplomatic and military support even though China knows that arms supplied by it will be used against civilians. Mint. Five days back, "A Myanmar fighter jet has crashed during clashes between the military and an insurgent group, both sides said, in another setback for a junta facing the biggest challenge to its rule since a coup in 2021." Reuters. "A total of 261 people - 127 soldiers and 134 of their family members - surrendered from an infantry battalion in Myanmar's Shan State," and "the rebel Three Brotherhood Alliance expects to capture Laukkiang, the areas major city." The Wire. So desperate is the situation that, "Myanmar's military rulers have ordered all military staff and those with military experience to prepare to serve in case of an emergency, an official said.., after the junta reported 'heavy assaults' from insurgents in several places." HT. "India on Thursday (yesterday) expressed deep concern at fighting between Myanmar's anti-junta groups and government forces close to the country's border, which resulted in Myanmar nationals seeking refuge in Mizoram." HT. "At least 29 more Myanmar soldiers entered India on Thursday" after "Earlier this week, 43 Myanmar soldiers entered India's Mizoram state after their military bases were overrun by the rebels." Reuters. India cannot annoy the Tatmadaw, while paying lip service to democracy. Also, "As a fallout of the ongoing India-Canada diplomatic spat, importers are not signing contracts for the imports of lentils from Canada." BS. Hence, "Importers of tur (pigeon peas) and urad (black gram) are not bringing their purchases from Myanmar to India. Instead, they are hoarding the pulses to book profit amid rising prices in the domestic market." Mint. The dreaded Enforcement Directorate (ED) of India, which can arrest anyone in India without proof, cannot raid warehouses in Myanmar. The generals in Myanmar cannot surrender power because they may be prosecuted and even executed for their crimes. Is there a parallel in India? Could we see a similar situation? Anything is possible.

$30 billion not enough.

Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar said in London, "I would say America today is a power which is reinventing itself." "Americans have had the wisdom to realize that they need to work with other partners and it is this American openness today which is shaping the Indo Pacific." How sweet. In its "wisdom", "At least two Indian products are facing anti-subsidy action in the form of countervailing duty (CVD) in the US and EU due to their use of Remission of Duties or Taxes on Export Products or RODTEP, the new government scheme meant to refund levies." "The levy itself may not be large, but it opens the doors to more cases." TOI. While lauding "American openness", "India has called on Canada to take steps to strengthen further its domestic framework to prevent the misuse of 'freedom of expression'." ABP. Actually, "freedom of expression" is enshrined in the very First Amendment of the US Constitution (US Congress), and the "US spy agencies reportedly provided information to Canada after Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar was killed in June this year." BS. "Trade Minister Mary Ng suggested...that Canada won't restart its trade talks with India until Narendra Modi's government cooperates with the investigation into the murder of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver last June." "Last Friday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken repeated his call for the government of India to cooperate with Canada on the ongoing investigation." CBC. In September, "India has called Canada a 'safe haven for terrorists' following its suspension of visas for Canadian citizens." CNN. So, why is India so polite to the Americans while taking a very tough line with Canada? "Justin Trudeau is facing pressure to resign or be forced out of the leadership of the Liberal Party due to his declining popularity in opinion polls." HT. But, even if Trudeau is forced out there is little possibility that anyone taking his place is going to drop this allegation against India. The new person could take a tougher stance. Apparently, Canada will lose money because, "In 2022, 226,000 students out of 550,000 international students in Canada were from India," contributing $30 billion to the economy." India Today. India's exports to Canada was $4.1 billion and imports from Canada were $4.06 billion for a total of $8.16 billion. BS. Since Canada is getting $30 billion from students and $4.06 from exports it should surrender. To put it in perspective, US trade with Canada totaled an estimated $908.9 billion in 2022, while US trade with India totaled an estimated $191.8 in 2022. ustr.gov. Actually, Khalistan is not an issue at all because 99% of Sikhs do not support the idea. ET. But Qatar is a major issue because, "The appeal lodged by the Indian government challenging the death sentence of eight former Indian Navy officials has been dismissed by a Qatar court, as reported by television news channel CNN-News18 citing undisclosed sources." Asianet. If the men are executed the government may force a complete silence on all news channels in India and may place the families under arrest to prevent them speaking out. Maybe, we will get the truth from Canada. $30 billion not enough to buy silence. 

No misuse of freedom of expression here.

"Amidst strained relations, India urged Canada during the review of its human rights record at the UNHRC to boost its legal framework to stop the 'misuse' of freedom of expression to incite violence and prevent activities of extremist groups." The Wire. No danger of "freedom of expression" in India. Trinamool Congress (TMC) MP Mahua Moitra had the gall to ask Prime Minister Narendra Modi about finanical dealings of Mr Gautam Adani (BBC) who is known to be close to Mr Modi. The BBC itself has been under fire for a documentary on Modi. In January, "India has blocked the airing of a documentary which questioned Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership during the 2002 Gujarat riots, saying that even sharing of any clips via social media is barred." Reuters. In February, "India's Finance Ministry accused the BBC of tax evasion.., saying that it had not fully declared its incomes and profits from its operations in the country." AP. Clearly a false accusation because, "In a setback to the tax department, the Income Tax Appellate Tribunal (ITAT)...rejected the I-T department's appeal in a case relating to transfer pricing adjustment against BBC India." TNIE. If one accusation is proved as false, try another. "The BBC has been ordered to the Delhi High Court over a defamation case about its documentary on Narendra Modi." BBC. Undaunted, "The BBC has spent more than a year investigating accusations against the Indian government that it is running a sinister and systematic campaign to intimidate and silence the press in the region (Kashmir)." The J&K Police threatened the BBC with "legal action" for "misrepresenting" facts. The Wire. Mahua Moitra was asked, "Who do you talk to at night, how many times," "Have you been to a hotel with X...have you stayed there?" "You call so and so a dear friend, does his wife know this." DH. What is appalling is that none of the women MPs of the BJP objected to this filthy, degrading, degenerate, contemptible humiliation of Moitra. They wouldn't dare. In January, Hindenburg Research reported that "Indian conglomerate Adani Group has engaged in a brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades." In October, the Financial Times reported that Adani, "the country's largest private coal importer, has been inflating fuel costs" leading to "millions of Indian consumers and businesses overpaying for electricity". The Wire. "What's jaw-droppingly significant is that this regime knew what was going on and did nothing to stop the bleeding," wrote Matthew John. Also jaw-dropping, the Gujarat High Court fined Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal Rs 25,000 for asking to see the certificate of Modi's postgraduate degree." TOI. Even more jaw-dropping, Attorney General R Venkataramani told the Supreme Court that citizens have no right to know who is paying for the mysterious electoral bonds. ET. China banned the letter 'N' (CNN). Modi has banned Indian citizens. We are ahead of China. Fantastic.

Expectations of growth. Of what?

"Retail inflation in India eased to 4.87% in October on an annual basis, data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation showed." ET. This is way above the government mandate for the Reserve Bank (RBI) to keep consumer price (CPI) inflation at 4% till March 2026. ET. This is in sharp contrast with the US Federal Reserve which has brought CPI inflation down to 3.7% in September. "Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment." bls.gov. It is expected to have come down further in October. "According FactSet, the overall CPI is forecast to come in at a 3.3% annual rate in October, down from 3.7% in September. Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to remain at September levels, with a 4.1% increase from a year ago." And yet, the highest rate of CPI inflation since 2019 in India was 7.8% in April 2022 (RI), whereas the highest rate in the US was 9.1% in June 2022 (USIC). But, while the US Fed has brought it down to 3.7% in September and is expected to achieve a rate of 3.3% in October, the best the RBI has managed is 4.87% in October, down from 5.02% in September. RBI's failure is further highlighted by average inflation which has been 3.7% in 2019, 6.6% in 2020, 5.1% in 2021 and 6.7% in 2022 in India, compared to 1.8%, 1.2%, 4.7% and 8.0% over the same years in the US. "The University of Michigan's latest consumer survey...showed that Americans' long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.2% this month, the highest level since 2011. And those perceptions could continue to get worse the longer it takes the Fed get inflation back to its 2% target." "If there's one thing that would make the Fed quake in its boots, it would be worsening inflation expectations." CNN. In India, the "households' perception of current inflation moderated by 50 basis points (bps) since July 2023 round of the survey to 8.4% in September 2023." Since the actual rate was 5.02% (pib.gov.in), does it mean that people think government figures are fudged? "The RBI's bi-monthly Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) showed that inflation expectations of households declined by 90 bps for three months to reach 9.1%. They declined by 40 bps for one year ahead to reach 9.9%." BS. But, whereas the US Fed is quaking "in its boots" the RBI is nonchalant. "RBI remains watchful and the monetary policy is actively deflationary and supporting growth, Governor Shaktikanta Das said." "At a symposium in Tokyo." BS. Low or negative real interest rates bring down borrowing costs for the rich even as high inflation reduces the value of their debt. And hence, "The number of (dollar) millionaires in India is expected to double by 2026, and its luxury market is expected to triple in size by 2030. However, consumption and wages in rural markets are stagnant. Even urban incomes have not kept pace with inflation." DH. No wonder Mr Santosh Iyer, Managing Director & CEO of Mercedes Benz in India is excited." ET. And, no wonder Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised free rations for over 800 million people for 5 years. HT. RBI promises growth. Of what exactly?   

Did Xi do it to Li?

 Last month, "Two dozen leaders and more than a hundred delegations, largely from the Global South, came together for a packed schedule of forums and bilateral meetings revolving around Chinese leader Xi Jinping's signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)," but "The event was attended by 24 leaders - far fewer than the 37 who traveled to the previous BRI forum four years ago." "China is owed more than a trillion dollars through its Belt and Road project, making it the biggest debt collector in the world...with an estimated 80% of loans supporting countries in financial distress." "Beijing says upwards of 150 countries stretching from Uruguay to Sri Lanka have signed up to the BRI." ET. "China slid back into deflation in October," as "China's National Bureau of Statistics said...that consumer prices fell 0.2% on-year in October and 0.1% since September." "Factory deflation continued for the 13th straight month in October." BT. "China, for the first time, has seen more outflows of foreign direct investment than inflows as tensions rise with the US semiconductor technology and concerns about a rise in anti-spying activity heighten risks, Nikkei Asia reported." ET. However, economic problems can occur and can be corrected over time. More ominously, prominent people in China have been disappearing recently. "Li Keqiang, once the second most powerful man in the ruling Chinese Communist Party, has died at the age of 68." BBC. Apparently, he suffered a sudden heart attack while on holiday in Shanghai and attempts to revive him failed. Li's death resulted in a public outpouring of grief. "Muted state coverage of his funeral stands in contrast to the outpouring of sorrow among ordinary Chinese people," and analysts believe that "people are mourning as much for the man as the loss of what China could have been under his leadership." BBC. This summer, in a conclave at Beidaihe in Hebei province, "a group of party elders reprimanded the top leader in ways they had not until now. Xi later expressed his frustration to his closest aides, according to information gathered." HT. "A source familiar with the situation in Beijing's Zhongnanhai area, where Chinese dignitaries have their offices, called Li's death the 'third act' of a 'bizarre' story that had been unfolding since the party's 20th national congress in the autumn of 2022," and "suggested that Li was actually behind the harsh advice party elders carried to current leaders in Beidaihe." Nikkei Asia. In recent months, China's Defense Minister Gen. Li Shangfu and Foreign Minister Qin Gang have disappeared from public view and have been stripped of their titles as state councillors without any explanation. NBC. Two senior generals of the PLA Rocket Force have been disappeared and "deputy commander Wu Guohua died in Beijing on July 4, but news of his demise mysteriously did not appear in the mainland media until July 27." The China Project. Li Keqiang had already retired. Disappearing him was pointless. But he was popular and still had influence with party elders. So, was it a heart attack that killed him? Or, did Xi have a hand in it?    

Derivatives, small-caps and gold.

"A survey by Ipsos has found that 69% of Indians believe that India is moving in the right direction. India is the third most optimistic market globally, the survey reveals." DD. Singapore and Indonesia are more optimistic than India. Curiously, Singapore is the only developed country, with a gross national income (GNI) per capita of $67,200 (World Bank), which is optimistic. People of all other developed nations, starting with Australia at 49% of optimism, are pessimistic in varying degrees. Indonesia had a GNI per capita of $4,580 in 2022, while that of India was $2,380. That enormous optimism manifested as, "Retail investors pumped in a hundred times more money into derivatives than shares on the NSE scondary market in the first half of FY24, and all the indications are that the trend may continue." Mint. "Against Rs 500 crore (Rs 5 billion) invested in NSE's secondary market, direct retail pumped Rs 50,500 crore (Rs 505 billion) into equity futures and equity options during April-September." Also, "Retail investor shareholding in NSE group firms surged to a record high of 7.62% during the September quarter," as "Retail investors pumped in Rs 7,596 crore (Rs 75.96 billion)." Mint. "The report showed that the DIIs (domestic institutional investors) saw their holdings rise to 15.99%, surpassing Rs 50 trillion in the quarter ended 30 September." The flow of money into stocks has jumped from Rs 63.8 billion in 2018-19 to "Rs 385.3 billion and Rs 486.1 billion in 2020-21 and 2021-22, respectively. In 2022-23, it stood at Rs 230.4 billion," wrote Vivek Kaul. In the past prices fell when FIIs sold stocks but buying by retail investors has supported prices. "Between August-end and 9 October, foreign portfolio investor have net sold stocks worth Rs 225 billion or $2.7 billion." "Data published recently...tells us that the number of folios of small cap equity mutual funds (MFs) as of August had shot up to 13.85 million, a jump of over 27% from March," wrote Kaul. Hence, "Between March and August, the BSE SmallCap Index has rallied by a huge 37.8%. During that period, the BSE Sensex - which is a large-cap index and India's most popular stock market tracker - gave a return of around 14.4%." A damning report by brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Securities said that "there had been no meaningful change in the fundamentals of most such companies," and, in many cases, it has worsened. Why are people piling into risky small-cap stocks and derivatives? Because the Reserve Bank (RBI) has allowed consumer price (CPI) inflation to go unchecked. RI. Gold is a great hedge against inflation although it gives no regular income. "Demand for gold in the country increased by 7.7% by volume to an estimated 42 tonnes and 10% by value to Rs 22,000 crore (Rs 220 billion), according to the Indian Bullion and Jewelers Association (IBJA)." ET. Indians have to be optimistic. Else they may become depressed. Happy Diwali. 

Th US and Qatar bff.

"The White House said Thursday (9 November) that Israel had agreed to move forward with daily four-hour pauses of military operations in areas of northern Gaza. The move appeared to formalize a pattern of halting the violence to allow humanitarian aid to flow into the enclave and to allow civilians to flee away from the fighting. For the past several days, Israel has paused violence for hours-long windows where it allows civilians to evacuate south." CNN. So, 'humanitarian' aid for Hamas, while Hamas continues to torture kidnapped little Israeli children. But, then those children must be Jews, so who cares. "Authorities and civil society groups in many countries have reported a surge in antisemitism since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on southern Israel and subsequent bombardment of the Gaza strip by the Israeli military." Reuters. "History is flashing warnings to the world. Outbursts of antisemitism have often been harbingers of societies in deep trouble and omens that extremism and violence are imminent." "Recent antisemitism is also a reflection of destructive forces tearing at American and Western European societies." CNN. Amid all this hand-wringing, "Three top leaders of Hamas alone have a staggering fortune of $11 billion, according to a report by New York Post. Ismail Haniyeh, Moussa Abu Marzuk and Khaleed Mashal have been maintaining their luxury lifestyle in Qatar." "Haniyeh and Mashal are worth $4 billion, and Marzuk is worth $3 billion. Hamas' annual turnover is $1 billion." "The report said all three leaders were seen frequenting diplomatic clubs and traveling in private jets." HT. In addition to Hamas, Qatar is known for supporting terrorist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbollah, which caused Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt to sever relations with Qatar in 2017 and impose an economic blockade on the country from 2017 to 2021. wikipedia. Eight veterans of the Indian Navy have been sentenced to death in Qatar on charges of espionage. NDTV. "On August 30 last year, Qatar's intelligence agency picked up the men from their homes in the dead of night." "Since then they have been kept in solitary confinement, denied bail and now sentenced to death." ET. "India has filed an appeal with Qatar over death sentences handed to eight former Indian naval officers on unspecified charges." BBC. If Qatar can side with Iran and Turkey against its fellow Arab nations it can surely execute these Indians. Problem is that "Of the 19.85 million tonnes of LNG (liquified natural gas) imported by India in FY23, 10.74 million tonnes (54%) came from Qatar." civilsdaily. com. 700,000 Indians work in Qatar and repatriate precious foreign exchange every year. wikipedia. Amid all this depraved nastiness, "A number of news outlets have strongly rejected Israeli accusations that four freelance photographers they worked with in Gaza had prior knowledge of the Hamas attacks on 7 October." "Images filed by photographers a burning Israeli tank, Palestinians breaching a fence at the Kfar Aza kibbutz and scenes from the attack itself." BBC. Almost as if they were embedded with Hamas attackers, a practice started by the US Army in the 2003 Gulf War. Britannica. "Anything you can do (I can do better)." wikipedia. The US has an Air Force base in  Qatar. wikipedia. So, the US is protecting Hamas leaders while pretending to support Israel. Crypto-antisemitism?