Has India reached the Malthusian point already?

"Chinese demographers say India will become the world's most populous country earlier than the United Nations' projection of 2027, surpassing China where a steady drop in the birth rate has been recorded in the last few year," Economic Times (ET). "India is expected to add nearly 273 million people to its population between now and 2050, a UN report said in 2019," when "India had an estimated population of 1.37 billion and China 1.43 billion". "China's population growth is falling closer to zero as fewer couples have children, the government announced Tuesday, adding to strains on an ageing society with a shrinking workforce." Times of India (TOI). "China's slowest population growth may be felt more acutely beyond its borders than within them. The economy will keep humming and incomes can continue to climb, albeit at a slower rate," wrote Daniel Moss. "The rest of us, however, will need to adjust to a persistently slacker pace of global expansion and the prospective ebbing of deflationary pressure." Cheap goods supplied by China subdued inflation in Europe and the US, which may see rising prices. "The hope has remained that as the young Indian population enters the working age , it will lead to higher economic growth -- the demographic dividend. The window began in 2018 when the working age population began to grow larger than its dependent population -- children aged 14 years or below and people above 65 year of age," wrote Prof Amit Kapoor and Chirag Yadav. In the 18th century, Thomas Malthus argued that unrestrained growth of human population will outstrip food production and lead to famine and natural calamity, Investopedia. To escape the Malthusian trap, "There are two further prerequisites: ample availability of productive employment and the capability to make use of available technologies. India is lacking on both fronts." To make matters worse, "The latest State of India's Environment report released by the Centre for Science and Environment finds that an astounding 375 million children may suffer long-lasting impacts due to the pandemic including being underweight and stunted, which will lead to losses in education and economic productivity." "(Prime Minister Narendra) Modi's tenure as prime minister has generally been marked by slowing growth -- from 8 percent in 2016-17 to 6.2 percent, 5.9 percent, 4.1 percent and minus 6.5 percent in the subsequent four years. Rural wages, too, have grown just 4.8 percent annually in nominal and 0.1 percent in real (inflation-adjusted) terms over the last seven years, as against an average of 15.3 percent and 5.1 percent during 2007-08 to 2013-14," wrote Harish Damodaran. But Modi keep's winning elections because of his government's "relative success at targeted delivery of benefits and asset creation through its flagship schemes". But, "While 'schemes' and their intelligent political marketing can help, they cannot substitute for anemic growth and falling incomes beyond a point." "Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday sharply cut India's FY22 growth forecast to 9.3% from 13.7% estimated earlier, as it joined other global rating firms in trimming growth expectations for Asia's third-largest economy amid a devastating second wave of Covid-19." Goldman Sachs has cut real GDP growth forecast just a tad from 10.9% to 10.5%, CMIE. "The United Nations has raised India's growth forecast to 7.5 percent for calendar year 2021", Business Standard, which is different from our financial year from 1 April-31 March. "India might be heading towards a 'serious livelihood crisis' as the situation seems to be worse this time for the working class amid the Covid crisis and local restrictions by states already already add up to a nationwide lockdown, according to noted economist Jean Dreze," TOI. The government does care. It is creating jobs by labelling the Central Vista, containing two palaces, an "Essential Service" at a cost of Rs 20,000 crore (Rs 200 billion). Our demographic dividend is becoming a demographic disaster. But, at least we will have two palaces.